TWTW: The World This Week / Episode #91

Back in court...Elections 2024: Europe, South Africa, Mexico, India...Benny v Bibi... Putin + Xi = ?... Olympics: sex or abstinence? ... Cartoonist Chappatte on a very red carpet in Cannes

This weekly feature for Andelman Unleashed, continues on its mission to explore how the media of other nations are reporting and commenting on the United States, and how they are viewing the rest of the world.

How others see America

Into the home stretch

The world is beginning to understand the stakes of the one criminal reckoning Donald Trump may face before the American people vote on the question of who should lead them over the next four years. As Piotr Smolar, Washington correspondent of the French daily Le Monde (which understands the real political stakes here and has him following the Trump trial rather than veteran New York correspondent Arnaud Leparmentier) examined one individual at the epicenter of this firestorm—Judge Juan Merchan:

The calibrated authority of Judge Merchan in the face of the wrath of Trump and his supporters….the magistrate responsible for presiding over the proceedings in the criminal trial of the former President of the United States and preserving the integrity of American justice.

Outside, it's noisy. The cameras, the social networks, the bright screens, the endless comments, the confusion, the partisan oratory contest. Here, in the courtroom of the Manhattan Criminal Court, order reigns, respect for procedure and the standards that underpin the rule of law. The heavy wooden benches indicate permanence. Here, above all, the former President of the United States Donald Trump is silent, and this is an exceptional event in itself.

“Good morning, Mr. Trump. » This is how, every morning, since April 15, the judge greets the only defendant in a polite tone, without ironic double-editing. Aged 61, with hair more salt than pepper, wearing unfancy rectangular glasses, Juan Merchan knows that his every word is scrutinized. It matters more than his reputation. On him weighs nothing less than the integrity of American justice which Donald Trump overwhelms from microphone to microphone, posing as the victim of a Democratic conspiracy. His final instructions to the twelve jurors, before their deliberations, will draw the framework within which these representatives of the people will assess whether the former president is guilty or not. Unanimity is required….

Through actions and words, the lesson of justice applies to everyone.

Elections 2024:  Europe…South Africa…Mexico…India

The world certainly knows about the assassination attempt on Slovakia's far-right prime minister Robert Fico. And this just as the campaign unspools for the 720 seats at stake in the pan-European elections debuting in three-plus weeks. But Andelman Unleashed SubStack colleagues David Carretta and Christian Spillmann, in their indispensable La Matinale Européenne, observed:

Fico himself has contributed to polarization and hateful rhetoric in recent years. In 2018, he was forced to resign after huge protests following the assassination of journalist Jan Kuciak, who was investigating his government's links with mafia groups….Fico returned to power last October at the head of an anti-European coalition with the far right, using vitriolic language against liberal policies, migrants or sanctions against Russia….

The attack on Fico follows other episodes of violence in other EU member states. Germany is the most striking example with an impressive series of attacks…. According to the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), 2,790 crimes were committed in 2023 against elected officials or activists of the seven parties represented in the Bundestag, almost half of them against the Greens. The number of attacks has almost doubled in five years in Germany….

Germany is not an isolated case, and far-right leaders have also been victims of attacks….Freedom of expression is sacred in the EU, but its violent abuse by democratic decision-makers unleashes physical violence by irresponsible people….In the age of social media and Donald Trump, many policymakers have chosen the strategy of polarization, resorting to extremist rhetoric, personal attacks and misinformation.

Or as the great German news weekly Der Spiegel asked this week on its cover marking the 75^th year of the Bundesrepublik—democratic, post-Hitler Germany….

Nothing Learned?

And in another right-leaning European government, as Politico Brussels' Nicholas Vinocur pointed out, during these parlous times:

Dutch anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders may not be his country’s next prime minister. But a new government backed by his right-wing party is hurtling toward a collision with the European Union on everything from migration to farming to enlargement. Another Hungary-style rebellion inside the gates? Think more along the lines of David Cameron’s U.K. pre-Brexit, minus the threat of a “Nexit” referendum.

Wilders wants a carve-out from the bloc’s freshly minted migration pact to put in place the “strictest asylum policy ever." A freeze on processing asylum applications, calls to deport people without valid residence papers “even forcibly,” calls to shelter underprivileged asylum seekers in “austere facilities,” and seeking an opt-out clause from the European Commission “as soon as possible.”

It's taken since last November for Wilders to get this far, as Andelman Unleashed predicted at the time, with a reference to "Netherlands [which] may be Europe too." But now, a Euro blueprint for Trump-2?

South Africa, which goes to the polls in 10 days, is not much better off. As the inestimable Harvard Kennedy School Professor Robert Rotberg reported on his SubStack page Robert’s Conflict Mitigation Newsletter:

South Africans head to the polls soon, on May 29, with their country in disarray. Educational attainments are down, electrical power is in short supply, there are major water availability issues, housing is lacking, and crime rates—among the highest in the world—are rising. Formal unemployment reached 33% this year. Corruption is rampant…GDP growth last year was less than 1%. Most politicians and political parties are regarded as self-serving and illegitimate. In short, the post-apartheid independence and peace dividend that President Nelson Mandela inaugurated in 1994 has been squandered.

Indeed, there was so much hope in September 1993 when Andelman Unleashed traveled across America as the newly-freed from prison Mandela's speech writer. Though, I'll confess, privately he held out little hope for his lieutenants who indeed have failed to deliver. Today, as Rotberg continued:

Most opinion polls on the eve of the election suggest that Mandela's African National Congress (ANC) will likely lose its majority in parliament. Now it holds 57% of the seats, down from a high of close to 70% under President Thabo Mbeki in 2004. The ANC today is seen as muddled, factionalized, corrupt, and incompetent. Even though President Cyril Ramaphosa is regarded as honest….[his] legitimacy was clouded by the discovery that $580,000 in cash was strangely stuffed into a sofa at his country estate, and then stolen.

The ANC's hold on the nation has also been threatened very recently by the disruptive re-emergence of former President Jacob Zuma, dismissed by the ANC as president in 2018 because of a wild corruption scandal regarding a $12 million personal estate in KwaZulu/Natal built with government funds. He was subsequently jailed….

Andelman Unleashed will follow the results closely next week.

Ten days later, we'll also be following Mexico's election. The Economist in London believes the stakes are no less enormous:

On June 2, almost 100 million Mexicans will be eligible to cast a vote to elect the country’s next president. Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Morena party is likely to win comfortably. She holds a lead of 25 points in the opinion polls. But the presidency is only one of some 20,000 jobs up for grabs in what will be Mexico’s largest election ever, measured by the number of voters and available posts. Mexicans will also elect representatives to all 628 seats in Congress, 9 governors, more than 1,000 local legislators and some 18,000 municipal roles. The results will determine the political environment in which the next president will operate. They may also define the future of Mexico’s traditional opposition parties, which have been discredited since their last stint in power. “What is at stake is the democratic viability of Mexico: the possibility of having a party system that reflects the democratic pluralism of the country,” says Clemente Castañeda, a senator running for re-election with Citizens’ Movement, a relatively young progressive party.

Of particular note is the role Mexico's leading drug cartels may be playing in the campaign or along the periphery.

As online newspaper Infobae observed, the final head-to-head contest—a televised debate between the three leading contenders (left to right above) Claudia Sheinbaum, from the Let's Keep Making History coalition; Xóchitl Gálvez, from Fuerza y ​​Corazón por México; and Jorge Álvarez Máynez, from Movimiento Ciudadano) would deal with:

·       Social policy

·       Insecurity and organized crime

·       Migration and foreign policy

·       Democracy, pluralism and division of powers

Organized crime means the cartels. Migration and foreign policy mean how to keep America from invading Mexico (if Trump is elected) or a crackdown of less seismic, though unappetizing proportions under a second Biden administration. The most likely outcome of the Mexican election? The country will have the first woman and first Jewish president.

Stay tuned.

Long among the most cherished, certainly the largest democracy is also being torn by partisan and increasingly sectarian splits. Less than a fortnight until India closes the door on the largest and in many respects most fraught election in the world. What’s becoming increasingly, and disturbingly, clear is how polarizing, potentially lethal, it's also become. Indeed, the very sanctity of India's democratic constitution may be on the line.

The fifth of seven rounds of voting ends on Monday. On the line—the political future of Rahul Gandhi, scion of the venerable family that controlled India for so long. The leader of his now opposition Congress Party has also charged that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has his own hidden agenda—to throw away the Constitution that has long protected India's most vulnerable—the Untouchables and other lowest castes. As The Hindu reported:

Gandhi claimed that if [Modi's] BJP returns to power, it will "tear apart" and "throw away" the Constitution which granted rights to the poor, Dalits, STs and the OBCs.

Addressing a rally in Madhya Pradesh's Bhind district, Mr. Gandhi, while holding a copy of the Constitution (book), said the ongoing Lok Sabha poll is not a normal election, but a fight between two ideologies.

But abroad, this is being seen as even more sinister. As Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (which has been known to reflect the view of many in Beijing) headlined:

Modi’s BJP wants 400 seats—with an eye on the country’s secular constitution. India’s PM denies his ruling Hindu-nationalist party wants a two-thirds parliamentary majority to strip the word ‘secular’ from the constitution. But why else has the Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies set a target of 400 seats, ask Congress’ Rahul Gandhi and the opposition INDIA bloc?

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and its ideological fountainhead, the right-wing paramilitary Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, espouse a so-called Hindutva agenda in multicultural India—celebrating as political triumphs the opening of a temple to the Hindu god Ram on the site of a razed mosque; Muslim migrants being prevented from gaining citizenship; and the revoking of the country’s only Muslim-majority region’s semi-autonomy.

The same SCMP correspondent, Biman Mukherji, traveled to the center of religious India:

In the heart of Varanasi, Muslim weavers of the city’s renowned silk saris have long worked side by side with Hindu traders, their lives intertwined like the intricate patterns in the exquisite garments they craft and sell. But this delicate fabric of interfaith harmony has begun to show signs of strain.

In recent months, the weavers have reported an increase in incidents where visitors chant provocative slogans at them, targeting their religion. They say it follows a rise in anti-Muslim rhetoric that has increasingly become a mainstream feature of the country’s politics. The atmosphere is changing. “They abuse us when we assemble in small groups and then go away. We don’t react because things can spin out of control.”

How others see the World

Israel and Benny Gantz…now we have a date…

…if there was any question of how long Israel's war on Gaza was going to last—especially for those who believed it was going on far too long. War Cabinet member Benny Gantz appeared to have removed at least some doubt this weekend. As the Israeli daily Haaretz reported:

Gantz addressed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday night, telling him that if a plan for post-war governance of Gaza is not consolidated and approved by June 8, his National Unity Party will withdraw from the government.

"Personal and political considerations have begun to enter the most sacred parts of Israel's defense," Gantz said, demanding that a plan to realize six strategic goals must be approved by June 8: the return of the hostages from Gaza; the overthrow of Hamas rule and demilitarization in Gaza; the establishment of a joint U.S., European, Arab, and Palestinian administration that will manage Gaza's civilian affairs and form the basis for a future alternative governing authority; the repatriation of residents of north Israel who were evacuated from their homes, as well as the rehabilitation of Gaza border communities; the promotion of normalization with Saudi Arabia; and the adoption of an outline for military service for all Israeli citizens.

"The people of Israel are watching you. You must choose between Zionism and cynicism, between unity and factionalism, between responsibility and lawlessness—and between victory and disaster," he continued.

The Times of Israel elaborated:

There is something deeply broken in the way Israel’s leaders are managing the war, cabinet minister Benny Gantz says in a televised statement. He says that when his National Party joined the emergency coalition, days after the October 7 Hamas massacre in southern Israel, initially there was coherent leadership and mistakes were avoided.

“A small minority took over the bridge of the Israeli ship, and is sailing it toward a wall of rocks,” Gantz charges. His National Unity party joined Netanyahu’s coalition days after the October 7 attack and has been under pressure to bolt the government.

Netanyahu didn't take long to reply—less than an hour, in fact, as Haaretz continued, quoting the prime minister on Gantaz’s ultimatum:

The conditions he set are "Euphemisms with a clear meaning: The end of the war, defeat for Israel, and the abandonment of most of the hostages—leaving Hamas intact, and establishing a Palestinian state."

The die, therefore, has been cast. Without Gantz's party in Netanyahu's cabinet, the government may still have majority in the parliament (Knesset) but will have lost any veneer of moderation as the prime minister's allies will all then be from the religious far-right.

Meanwhile, on Sunday as Haaretz also reported, “US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is in Israel to meet with PM Netanyahu and war cabinet minister Gantz after meeting Saudi Crown Prince MBS. Far right minister Smotrich called on Israel to occupy Gaza and invade southern Lebanon….”

Should the conditions continue to worsen, particularly the famine that is being widely predicted as imminent if not already underway, the shape of Israel's path forward is unclear at best. As London's Financial Times observed:

The first humanitarian aid to reach Gaza by sea via a US-built floating pier arrived on Friday after shipments over land have frequently been impeded by Israeli restrictions and protests by members of the country’s far right….The new aid route has drawn criticism from aid groups, however, that say it is costly and limited in capacity to help Gazans facing acute food shortages, compared with far more efficient land routes.

A senior UN official called the project a “wasteful distraction”, saying: “There’s [already] aid waiting outside Gaza.” Before Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel triggered the war, Gaza received about 500 trucks of aid per day, a number that has fallen to about 200 per day over the past six months, according to UN and Israeli military figures. The pier route has capacity to handle 150 trucks a day. The UN estimates that Gaza needs as many as 1,000 trucks of aid per day for several weeks to overcome the shortages of food, medicine and other critical supplies that have built up in recent months.

Putin & Xi = a new world order?

A world order not led by the United States. Indeed, an autocratic world order. That seemed to be the goal of the two best friends who followed up Xi's swing through a Europe the pair are very high on splitting apart then reassembling to their own liking. Still, as the BBC so perceptively pointed out, this may no longer be a partnership of equals (if it ever was):

Vladimir Putin’s state visit to China this week was a show of strength. It was a chance for the Russian president to prove to the world that he has a powerful ally in his corner. The Russian leader is widely regarded as a pariah after ordering the invasion of Ukraine. But to China’s President Xi Jinping, he is a key partner in seeking a new world order that is not led by the US.

And Mr Xi made his guest welcome. He rolled out the red carpet, the band played old Red Army songs, and cheering children greeted both leaders as they strolled through Tiananmen Square. There was even a brief hug for the cameras. Russian and Chinese state media focused heavily on the camaraderie between the two leaders. But in truth, this is no longer a partnership of equals.

Mr Putin came to China cap in hand, eager for Beijing to continue trading with a heavily sanctioned and isolated Russia. His statements were filled with honeyed tones and flattering phrases. He said that his family were learning Mandarin—particularly noteworthy because he very rarely talks about his children in public. He declared that he and Mr Xi were “as close as brothers” and went on to praise China’s economy…

But Mr Xi himself did not echo the tone of these lofty compliments. Instead, his remarks were more perfunctory….For China, the welcome ceremony and show of unity is in its interests, but lavishing its guest with praise is not.

The costly war in Ukraine, which shows no signs of ending, has changed their relationship, exposing the weaknesses in Russia’s army and its economy. Mr Xi will know that he is now in charge.

All this was quite a break from the realities of the Cold War that I covered from Moscow when the Soviet-American confrontation was paramount, Soviet-Chinese confrontation a tangible and dangerous reality, and when Nixon's opening to China inserted a dramatic new dynamic: Sino-American cooperation.

Today's hot war….

….is one that Russia now seems to be winning and for which Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky was hardly reluctant to lay some blame, telling France's AFP, "The attack on Kharkiv could be the first wave of a Russian offensive”:

Zelensky criticized the West for prohibiting Ukraine from using weapons supplied by Europe and the United States to strike Russian territory. “They can hit us from their territory, this is the biggest advantage Russia has, and we cannot do anything to their (weapons) systems located on Russian territory with Western weapons. We don’t have the right,” he said, noting that he complained about it again this week to the American Secretary of State, Antony Blinken.

“We find ourselves in an absurd situation where the West is afraid that Russia will lose the war. And (at the same time) he doesn't want Ukraine to lose it. Because the final victory of Ukraine will lead to the defeat of Russia. And the final victory of Russia will lead to the defeat of Ukraine."

Don't forget the Olympics….

No sex? As Andrea Lubeck reported in 24 heures:

First seen at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, recycled cardboard beds, which many believed were designed to prevent sexual relations between athletes, are back in Paris….

“The beds installed in the Tokyo Olympic Village are made of cardboard, which is intended to avoid privacy between the athletes,” Paul Chelimo, a member of the American athletics team, wrote at the time on Twitter. “The beds will be able to support the weight of a single person to avoid situations that go beyond sports.”

  (Olympic village beds…oh, and note the fan: no a/c for July-August!)

The Olympic Committee, however, indicated that the bed bases were designed with the environment in mind, since cardboard is recyclable.

This year again, reports suggest that the 14,250 single beds to be made of recycled cardboard in which the athletes will sleep are designed to dissuade them from gallivanting.

You should know that the Olympic villages are ideal places for athletes to indulge in carnal pleasures. An ESPN survey revealed that 70% to 75% of athletes intended to have sex during the 2012 London Games.

This year again, condoms will be distributed—a tradition dating back to the 1988 Seoul Games. The Olympic Committee said it will give up to 300,000 female and male condoms to athletes.

With just 65 days to go to the opening ceremonies on the Seine, a very upright Andelman Unleashed arrives in Paris on July 17. Lots to chronicle….Can't wait!

Finally, there’s …. Chappatte

Cannes, the annual Festival of Film, got underway this week on the Riviera. Next Sunday will be the Palme d'Or—filmdom's highest single accolade. But all week, along with the screenings, the festivities, and the inevitable red carpet, as the Swiss cartoonist Chappatte observed, there's a whole list of issues—starting with #MeToo.

Patrick Chappatte, who draws under his last name, is the son of a Swiss father and Lebanese mother and was last feature in Andelman Unleashed in March riffing on American Gaza aid headed for war and relief. Born in 1967 in Karachi, Pakistan, he began working for Swiss newspapers, currently dividing his time between Geneva and Los Angeles. He draws regularly for the Geneva daily Le Temps as well as Zurich’s  Neue Zürcher Zeitung and frequently for Le Monde in Paris. In 2012 he became the first non-American to win the Thomas Nast Award of the Overseas Press Club of America. And with the Le Monde cartoonist Plantu he founded the inestimable Cartooning for Peace collective.

Here’s how Chappatte imagines himself: