TWTW: The World This Week / Episode #75

Shock & awe in NH, so Europe looks to itself...To the barricades (!) in Germany & France...Meltdown in China's markets...Putin's back in Africa...Britain's looted jewels...Cartoonist Amorim on AfD.

This weekly feature for Andelman Unleashed, continues on its mission to explore how the media of other nations are reporting and commenting on the United States, and how they are viewing the rest of the world.

Coming to you this week, on the road, from New Orleans!

How others see America

Elections 2024: Shock & awe in New Hampshire

It’s just beginning to dawn on a widening range of political circles in Europe that Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate for President in the November elections. Or as Swiss cartoonist Patrick Chappatte fantasized Wednesday morning on the front page of Le Monde:

So, it is hardly surprising that Le Monde  also devoted its lead editorial to these fears for the second week in a row, this time after Trump’s romp in New Hampshire:

The race for the Republican presidential nomination appears almost played out though it has only just started. A significant majority of conservative voters clearly want to give Donald Trump another chance despite the electoral setbacks suffered under his leadership and his role in the dangerous contestation of the results of the 2020 presidential election….The old party of law and order has lined up behind the one who has most consistently trampled on these principles….

This double stubbornness is bad news for the United States, and well beyond, given its weight in world affairs….The upcoming presidential election will undoubtedly be the strangest in the history of the United States.

Its outcome looks all the more uncertain as the conservative candidate seems less inclined than ever to accept the verdict of the polls and that an ever-increasing critical mass of Republican voters judge they need a leader who is willing to break the rules in the name of the country's recovery….If things remain as they are, voters in the United States will have to mourn the “American dream”. They will only have the choice in November between denouncing the carnage which would have befallen their country, in disregard of the facts, and the warnings against a risk of democratic collapse unfortunately supported by the diatribes of Donald Trump.

Unwinding from America

Indeed, there is also a rising chorus of voices, certainly in Europe, about preparations that need to begin now should the unthinkable happen in November. The leader of what is likely to be the largest (conservative) group in the EU Parliament after June’s pan-European parliamentary elections, now believes “the EU needs to prepare for a scenario where the U.S. no longer defends the Continent against Russia and its President Vladimir Putin.”

As Manfred Weber, leader of the European Peoples Party, told Politico Brussels:

“We are in a historic moment and we must now understand and seize it….The EU must be able to defend itself independently. We are a long way from that today….[But] we still have a period of time to tackle this. We must not waste it.”

Above all, this means developing a European nuclear deterrent, a subject especially fraught for any leading German official, like Weber. But he is not hesitant now to raise that subject:

Europe must build deterrence, we must be able to deter and defend ourselves," he said. "We all know that when push comes to shove, the nuclear option is the really decisive one."

France, with its 300 or so nuclear warheads, is the only EU nation with a nuclear arsenal since the exit of Britain from the EU. Other European countries—Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey—depend entirely on US nuclear weapons deployed on American air bases in each of these countries, with launch decisions solely at the discretion of the US president. French President Emmanuel Macron, who first broached the idea of a nuclear-armed European defense making use of the French deterrent when Trump was last in power, continues to press such a scenario today.

And others are preparing….

The three Baltic countries, all NATO members, have disclosed plans to build their own barriers against an ever more threatening Russian menace. Latvian journalist Juris Kaža reported on his SubStack page The View from Riga:

The Defense Ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania said at a press conference in Riga that the three countries would build a joint Baltic Defense Line along their borders with Russia and Belarus….The defense line along and near the border would involve prepositioned ammunition and weapons and prepared defensive positions along the frontier with Russia and Belarus as well as quick reaction units to meet any cross-border aggression.

Later, Estonian media reported that the Baltic Defense Line along Estonia’s border with Russia would involve building 600 bunkers and firing positions. According to the public broadcaster website Err.ee, The 600 bunkers to be installed on Estonia's border with Russia will be single concrete modules designed to withstand a direct hit from an artillery shell. The bunkers to be constructed on the border will look like living quarters inside.

And then the coda…

From Vice President Kamala Harris during a campaign swing last week:

I have met 150 world leaders. They all ask me what is going on with this election. Out of self-interest. People around the world are watching.

How others see the World

Bad all over …

Think it’s bad in America?  Look no further than Germany or France.

Germany’s Chancellor is in deep trouble. Tagesschau, Germany’s oldest news broadcast, reported the results of its latest opinion poll:

Chancellor Olaf Scholz's reputation has suffered significantly: currently only 20 percent are satisfied with the SPD politician's work, which is the lowest value for a chancellor in the ARD-DeutschlandTrend, which has existed since 1997.

When it comes to the question of whether Scholz is acting prudently, Germans are divided: 48 percent say yes, 46 percent say no. Only 27 percent think he is up to the job of Chancellor—two thirds (68 percent) don't think so.

23 percent see Scholz as a good crisis manager for Germany—71 percent do not see that. And only 12 percent think that the Chancellor communicates convincingly, 84 percent don't think so. All of these values ​​have collapsed since the ARD Germany Trend last polled them in April.

Perhaps most frightening is the position of the far-right heirs of the Nazi party, the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland)—coming in second among all groups, behind only the powerful CDU/SDU coalition:

Back in the soup

And then there’s Emmanuel Macron. Fresh off an apparent triumph of naming the youngest prime minister in modern French history, he’s facing a reprise of the yellow vest movement that all but paralyzed a chunk of his first presidential term. This time it’s the farmers. I still recall when I was based in Paris as CBS News correspondent 40 years ago when this generation’s irate grandparents dumped four tons of carrots in front of the then ruling Socialist Party headquarters (and across from our apartment) on the rue de Solferino around the corner from the Musée d’Orsay.

This time, they’re back and taking their grievances to the road. Despite efforts by Prime Minister Gabriel Atal to throw them some concessions, they don’t seem very happy. Especially along the main autoroute out of Paris which remained blocked the entire day.

As Le Parisien reported:

In the afternoon, on the roadblock which cut the A1 in both directions all day, we did not have too many illusions about the Prime Minister's intervention [with a set of concessions including tax breaks on gas and fuel]. “We hope for something other than words and promises, but we are rather pessimistic,” indicated a group of farmers.

“These are not yes-words that will make me return to my farm,” warned Régis Desrumaux, head of the FDSEA [union], during the day. “We are generally fed up in France and Europe, and if we have to go to Paris, we will go!”

But as Euronews reported, France is not alone and the danger of contagion is real and immediate:

Agricultural workers say green policies and taxes are eating into their profits and are demanding more government subsidies. Farmers' protests have sprung up in Romania, Germany and France, [Le Monde also adds Poland] ahead of the EU elections in June. Whilst their demands vary in general they claim that they are taking the hardest hit from environmental reforms and that they need more government subsidies to offset them.

In Israel, victories and defeats

As Le Monde reported:

The noose is tightening around the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA). After the United States, it is the turn of Italy, Australia and Canada to announce the suspension of their financing of the institution. These statements come after accusations by Israel that UNRWA employees may have been involved in the bloody Hamas attack.

And then, there’s the International Court of Justice ruling in the case brought by South Africa, charging genocide by Israel in Gaza, as columnist Steve Crawshare suggested, pointedly, in London’s Guardian:

Israel will no doubt continue to pour scorn on the international court of justice (ICJ) in The Hague in the days and weeks to come. “Hague Shmague” was the first response from the security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir. But the provisional measures ordered by the world court are historic, by any measure.

The requirement that Israel must take steps to prevent genocidal acts, prevent and punish incitement to genocide, and report back on its actions within a month, will all have rippling implications – not just in the weeks but in the years to come.

If this judgment is not heeded, how can Putin ever be held to account? Justice with double standards is no justice at all.

As for Putin…don’t forget Africa…he hasn’t

Just as we thought Africa might be safe from expansion of the now effectively defunct Wagner Group and the Russian power it represents, comes this little-recognized shocker from the nation of Burkina Faso, one of a band of nations stretching across the country where in the past year military coups have shattered democratic rule….Le Monde Afrique’s totally plugged-in African correspondent Morgane Le Cam reported:

“At 2 p.m. on Wednesday, 100 Russian military specialists arrived in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso. In total, 300 soldiers are expected.” The announcement was made on January 24 on Telegram by the Africa Initiative. This propaganda network, linked to the former private security company Wagner and the GRU (Russian military intelligence)—as the investigative collective All Eyes on Wagner had pointed out—published a series of photos showing Caucasian men in military uniform, faces hidden behind neck gaiters, in front of an Iliouchine IL-76 (a Russian transport plane) on the runway of an airport presented as being that of Ouagadougou….

Africa Corps also announced on its Telegram channel on Wednesday the arrival of a “Russian contingent of 100 people” in Ouagadougou, with the mission of “ensuring the security of the country's leader, Ibrahim Traoré, and the Burkinabé people against terrorist attacks….

The great Cartooning for Peace cartoonist and contributor to Andelman Unleashed, Damien Glez, who has worked from his base in Ouagadougou for 33 years, e-mailed us enigmatically Friday evening:

Effectively, David, the situation is not exciting in Burkina.
An important civil society lawyer has just been kidnapped by the
military.
But for me, it's okay, I have no worries.
Thank you for the support….

Incidentally, Morgane Le Cam provided a bit of background on Putin’s Wagner successor:

Africa Corps is the new label of the Russian paramilitary presence in the Sahel, responsible for absorbing Wagner's activities in Africa as well as its personnel since Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of this private security group, died at the end of August 2023.

Africa Corps (Afrika Korps) was also the name Hitler’s General Erwin Rommel used for the panzer divisions he used to sweep, all but unchecked, across northern Africa in the early days of World War II. The American unit responsible for Africa, headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany, is known as Africa Command, its presence contracting as Africa Corps is clearly expanding, even in Prigozhin’s absence.

A meltdown in China?

Out of Shanghai, a piece in Singapore’s Straits Times reflecting on some very hard times on the Chinese markets—and its economy in general:

The Chinese authorities are considering a package of measures to stabilise the slumping stock market, according to people familiar with the matter, after earlier attempts to restore investor confidence fell short and prompted Premier Li Qiang to call for “forceful” steps….

The deliberations underscore the elevated level of urgency among the Chinese authorities to stem a sell-off that sent the benchmark CSI 300 Index to a five-year low this week. Calming the nation’s retail investors, many of whom have been bruised by the protracted property downturn, is also seen as key to maintaining social stability. Whether such measures will be enough to end the rout is far from certain….

And then there’s those crown jewels….

150 years ago, British colonial forces looted (stole, not borrowed) the crown jewels of the royal regime in Ghana. It’s been a pretty sore subject ever since. Well, now they’re coming home….sort of. As the BBC reported:

The UK is sending some of Ghana's "crown jewels" back home, 150 years after looting them from the court of the Asante king. A gold peace pipe is among 32 items returning under long-term loan deals, the BBC can reveal.

The Victoria & Albert Museum (V&A) is lending 17 pieces and 15 are from the British Museum.

Notice that they’re on ‘loan’ back to the folks the Brits had looted them from. And long-term is somewhat relative.

Ghana's chief negotiator said he hoped for "a new sense of cultural co-operation" after generations of anger.

So, what’s he going to say? The Brits are still holding onto a bunch of the loot as the report suggested:

But some countries laying claim to disputed artefacts fear that loans may be used to imply they accept the UK's ownership. Tristram Hunt, director of the V&A, told the BBC that the gold items of court regalia are the equivalent of "our Crown Jewels".

The items to be loaned, most of which were taken during 19th-Century wars between the British and the Asanti, include a sword of state and gold badges worn by officials charged with cleansing the soul of the king.

These wars were a central part of the Scramble for Africa in which seven West European nations between 1870 and the outbreak of World War I in 1914 effectively divided up the continent, their “ownership” rising from 10% at the start to 90% at the finish before the long and often violent period of de-colonization concluded well into the 20th century.

And the BBC quite pointedly concluded:

Mr Hunt insisted the new cultural partnership "is not restitution by the back door" —meaning it is not a way to return permanent ownership back to Ghana.

The three-year loan agreements, with an option to extend for a further three years, are not with the Ghanaian government but with Otumfo Osei Tutu II—the current Asante king known as the Asantehene—who attended the Coronation of King Charles last year.

The Asantehene still holds an influential ceremonial role, although his kingdom is now part of Ghana's modern democracy.

Three years from now….who knows? And then there are the fabulous artifacts looted, effectively, from a host of modern nations from Nigeria to Greece—who all want them back as well.

Finally, there’s Amorim….

The great Brazilian cartoonist Amorim reflects on the deep divisions growing in the heart of Europe, but especially in Germany where the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD or Alternative for Germany) party is beginning to emerge after years in its shell as a toxic political snake with millions gathering in, still vain, hopes of hammering it down.  

Alberto da Costa Amorim who draws simply under the name Amorim, is a native of Rio de Janeiro and began publishing his cartoons in 1984 with the satiric newspaper Pasquim. Andelman Unleashed last published him in January 2023 riffing on Brazil under a constitution in flames. He is a member of the global, Paris-based collective Cartooning for Peace. 

Here’s how Amorim imagines himself: