TWTW: The World This Week #94 + Elections 2024: Europe
In Europe, a sharp tack starboard … Macron dissolves parliament ... a lavish (fin de regime?) dinner at the Elysée … Vietnam in the Spratlys … Israel's Gantz quits… Cartoonist Hermann on Modi wounded
In this weekly feature for Andelman Unleashed, exceptionally, we combine our mission to explore how the media of other nations are reporting and commenting on the United States, and how they are viewing the rest of the world with our reporting on the outcome of perhaps the most epiphanal election of all those we are examining worldwide [until America's in November!]
Elections 2024: Europe writ very large
The first exit polls are in, live results following quickly, and the results at first blush seem to be living up to their advance billing of a substantial, in some countries an overwhelming swing to the right that had potentially shattering results across the 27-nation European Union.
In France, exit polls showed the far-right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen with more than double the vote of President Emmanuel Macron’s own moderate party for European Parliament seats. The first fallout came, even before official returns were tabulated. French President Emmanuel Macron stunned his nation and Europe by summarily dissolving the National Assembly and calling a snap election for a new parliament June 30 and July 7. As Le Monde reported :
Across Europe, there were similarly sharp shifts to the right—which will not doubt give considerable comfort in the U.S. to Donald Trump, who has developed close ties with many of these far-right leaders. Indeed, the entire 720-seat European Parliament is in play, not to mention a substantial shift in the political taxonomy and especially leadership of the largest single power center of the West.
The result will be a new and powerful block in the European Parliament and a substantial shift on a number of key projects. Gone could well be overwhelming support for initiatives from sweeping aid for Ukraine to a green momentum, even new directions for dealing with economic cooperation with the U.S. and China. Still, the far right will not achieve one of its preeminent goals—dismantling many of the core elements of the European Union itself. The center-right coalition called the European People’s Party was on track to maintain its leadership role in the new parliament. Since this includes the center-right German parties of the CDU and CSU, home to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, she seems to be in a strong position to win the second term she has been seeking.
Still, the two putative leaders of Europe, heads of the two largest nations—French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz—suffered all but catastrophic defeats. BBC Brussels editor Paul Kirby explained how Germany was going down:
National parties join broader European groupings in the Parliament, and as Germany has 96 seats, this graphic below is key to the whole election.
The conservative CDU/CSU parties currently in opposition [in Germany] are part of the centre-right European People's Party who are expected to have the most seats in the next parliament, 30 seats from Germany is a big chunk.
The Greens are part of a group with other German parties, so they come out ahead of the SPD in seats, even if they came fourth.
But there are 18 seats we've labelled as Independents and that's because the [far-right Alternative for Germany] AfD, who are on course to win 16.3% of the vote, according to exit polls, have been thrown out of their original Identity & Democracy grouping. The scandals that beset the top two AfD candidates apparently didn't mean a great deal to their voters.
In France results were, if possible, even more catastrophic for Macron. As Marine Le Pen observed, triumphantly after learning of Macron’s action calling new elections:
This is the French people trusting us with the upcoming legislative elections. We are ready to rebuild the country. We are ready to defend the interests of the French people. We are ready to end mass immigration. We are ready to make purchasing power a priority. We are ready to re-industrialize the country. In a nutshell, we are ready to rebuild the country. We are ready to bring balance back to life.
The message tonight including the dissolution of the parliament is also a message sent to the leaders in Brussels. This is a patriotic movement. That is a historic one.
As Leila Abboud reported from Paris for London’s Financial Times:
In a stinging blow to the pro-EU French president, exit polls on Sunday showed Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) far ahead of all other parties, with around 33% of the vote compared to 15% for Macron’s 2nd-place Renaissance alliance. Macron appeared set to narrowly avoid a humiliating third-place finish by seeing off a challenge from centre-left [Socialist] candidate Raphael Glucksmann, who exit polls showed would win roughly 14% per cent. The vote marked the third win in a row in European elections for Le Pen’s Eurosceptic RN, and represented a major setback for the French president who has long made his staunchly pro-Europe stance a marker of his political brand….
The loss came after Macron had argued that the very future of the EU was at stake because of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, economic competition with the US and China, as well as the need to fight climate change—all topics on which he said the far-right could not be trusted.
The last time a French president called such a snap election proved catastrophic for President Jacques Chirac 27 years ago. The Socialists and their leader Lionel Jospin took over parliament in 1997, leaving rightist Chirac twisting in the win for the remainder of his time in office. Incidentally, Marine Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie came in a close third in that vote count.
The third major leg of the stool—Italy—offered few surprises, far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her far right Brothers of Italy party merely cementing their hold over the Italian electorate, thought the moderate Democrats appeared set to arive in a close second according to projections on state television RAI. The Greens, however, as in much of the rest of Europe, faded here to a distant sixth place.
Ahead of all these results, however, the great Taiwanese cartoonist Stellina Chen on the front page of Le Monde expressed the fear of many with respect to how this weekend’s European election might unfold. [Hint: there appears to be a single clear, if convoluted, path to the ballot box]
The results all reflect quite simply a new, dark wave rolling across the continent, even despite the rather thin, it might be said somewhat apathetic, turnout in many countries (barely half registered voters in France bothered to vote). Ahead of the actual balloting, three Le Monde cartographers—Béatrice Giblin, Francesca Fattori, and Sylvie Gittus-Pourrias— produced a frightening political map of the continent's new contours:
How others see America
With a little help from one's friends
Seems like both Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron needed a little help from each other…and while there's been some friction, not to mention generational differences, between the respectively 81-year-old and 46-year-old heads of state, the pair got on like old chums this past week, each hoping to shore up the fortunes of the other. The two still don't see eye-to-eye whatsoever on Gaza….indeed, asLe Monde reported:
"I am completely ready to recognize a Palestinian state, but (...) I believe that this recognition must come at a useful time," said President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday, May 28, alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, at the end of his state visit to Germany.
….or sending French military trainers to Ukraine, as London's Guardian reported:
Ukraine’s top commander said he had signed paperwork allowing French military instructors to access Ukrainian training centres soon. But [Macron] said he would not comment on “rumors or decisions that could be made”.
Still, both have a special reason for a show of bonhomie, especially in the wake of the fractious EU elections in which Macron's party, Renaissance, was vastly outpolled by the National Rally [RN] party of his leading, far-right opponent, setting up any number of problems for Macron at home not unlike the problems faced by Joe Biden back at his home.
"Come down and fight if you dare" —Chappatte/Switzerland
It all came into crystal clear focus at the lavish State Dinner at the Elysée Palace that Macron threw for his American guests on Saturday….when Biden, in his toast, quoted a little handbook given every invading GI on D-Day in 1944: "The French are allies who happen to speak democracy in a different language."
On hand was the crème of le Tout Paris and le Tout Washington—former right-wing president Nicolas Sarkozy and supermodel wife Carla Bruni, Salma Hayek with husband François-Henri Pinault, owner of Gucci, Saint Laurent and Balenciaga, Pharrell Williams, creative designer at Louis Vuitton (but who also performed), John McEnroe and wife singer Patty Smyth, film makers Claude Lelouch and Luc Besson, Bernard Arnault of Louis Vuitton-Moët Hennessy, Jean Paul Agon of L'Oreal, not to mention heads of Hermès, the Louvre, and a host of Senators and Congressmen from both parties.
Amidst all this, it was hard not to recall the banquet thrown by the Shah of Iran at Persepolis in 1979 to mark the 2500th anniversary of the Persian Empire—another fin de regime fête? Back then, the planning came from the Paris firm of Maison Jansen, who referred for their inspiration to the meeting between Francis I of France and Henry VIII of England at the Field of the Cloth of Gold in 1520….with food from Maxim's, then at the top of its game….followed, not too far after, by the revolution and the arrival in power of the ayatollahs.
It's hard to see how Macron and Trump would ever exchange state dinners or toasts—as detestable as each finds the other.
How others see the World
A turning tide?
These days that is a central question. The Russians surging, Ukraine on retreat? Not anymore. With the arrival on the battlefront of the first wave of new western (especially American) armaments, here's what Die Welt correspondent Clemens Wergin reported (and gleefully republished in the leading Polish daily, Wyborcza):
When a new Russian offensive against Kharkov in northeastern Ukraine began on May 10, the situation looked bleak. In the preceding months, Moscow's troops had regained momentum across the entire front and placed Ukraine, which was desperately short of Western ammunition, in a difficult position. The possible fall of Kharkov could be evidence of Russian superiority and the inevitable defeat of the defending Ukraine offensive, the situation has changed radically. Although fierce fighting continues north of Kharkov along two axes of attack, the Russians have not managed to advance more than 10 km into Ukrainian territory….
Russia paid a high price for these minimal tactical successes, in men and heavy equipment. "Russian losses in Kharkov and the surrounding area are extreme," says Phillips O'Brien, a military strategy expert at the University of St Andrews in Scotland. According to the British Ministry of Defense, May has been the worst month for Russians in terms of casualties since the beginning of the war: an average per day of 1,200 soldiers killed or wounded.
And as this map suggests, Russian successes have been minimal.
Another war? Land across the South China Sea….
Hard to believe China could have much (meaningful) competition in what Beijing considers its own backyard, but now quietly, even insistently, along comes Vietnam. As the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (an important source for my Asia explorations in my latest book, A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy & the History of Wars that Might Still Happen) disclosed, "Hanoi in High Gear: Vietnam's Spratly Expansion Accelerates":
Vietnam has significantly accelerated the expansion of its outposts in the Spratly Islands over the last six months, creating almost as much new land as it had in the previous two years combined and putting Hanoi on pace for a record year of island building in 2024.
Since November of 2023, Vietnam has created 692 new acres of land across a total of 10 features, compared to 404 acres created in the first 11 months of 2023 and 342 acres in 2022. This brings the total of Vietnam’s overall dredging and landfill…in disputed areas of the South China Sea to approximately 2,360 acres—roughly half of China’s 4,650 acres. This is a major change from just three years ago, when the total amount of Vietnamese dredging and landfill was just 329 acres—less than one-tenth of China’s total.
The scale of Vietnam’s activity can also be seen in a look at the largest outposts in the Spratly Islands by land area. While China’s “big three” outposts (Mischief, Subi, and Fiery Cross reefs) remain the largest, the next four largest outposts are all newly expanded Vietnamese reefs.
Barque Canada Reef remains Vietnam’s largest outpost, nearly doubling over the last six months from 238 to 412 acres.
[Barque[ now measures 4,318 meters in length, which makes it the only Vietnamese outpost so far with the potential to host a 3,000-meter runway like those that China has at Fiery Cross, Mischief, and Subi Reefs.
[And with hat tip to Carl Robinson for flagging tnis to us.]
So far, none of the Vietnamese advances has been seriously challenged by China, though Orange Wang, reporting from Beijing for the Hong Kong daily South China Morning Post observed:
Vietnam has reclaimed more land in the South China Sea in the past three years than in the previous four decades, a Chinese think tank said, warning that the activity could “complicate and expand” disputes in the waters.
“Vietnam has occupied more Chinese islands and reefs, stationed more troops and built more facilities than any other coastal state to the South China Sea,” said Liu Xiaobo, the report’s author and director of Grandview’s Centre for Marine Studies. Vietnam and China are just two of the various parties claiming part of the resource-rich South China Sea, through which one-third of global shipping passes.
[The Grandview] report also referred to the Philippines’ increasing efforts to repair and reinforce a warship it grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal, another outcrop in the Spratlys. Coastguard vessels from China and the Philippines have clashed around the shoal and Scarborough Shoal, and tensions are brewing over Sabina Shoal.
“These are all actions that complicate and expand the disputes and affect peace and stability,” Liu said.
Some observers say the South China Sea presents an even greater risk of conflict than the Taiwan Strait, but [the Beijing institution] said it expected the waters to remain generally peaceful this year.
Gantz addressed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday night, telling him that if a plan for post-war governance of Gaza is not consolidated and approved by June 8, his National Unity Party will withdraw from the government.
Sure enough, June 8, Saturday, no plan so here’s how Anshel Pfeffer heralded the news in Haaretz on Sunday:
With Gantz Gone, Netanyahu Is Left With No One to Blame for His Notorious Indecision
Gantz gave Netanyahu a safety net after October 7 in exchange for keeping the major decisions out of the far-right's hands, but his role in gov't has mainly been a scapegoat for the war's stalemate. Now his safety net is gone, and Israel's near future is fully up in the air.
Meanwhile, Israel got four of its hostages back after a daring daylight raid. But in the cold light of day on Sunday, Amos Harel of the daily Haaretz observed one caveat:
In the eight months that have passed since more than 250 civilians and soldiers were abducted, seven hostages have been rescued in three separate operations. Hamas will likely guard its remaining captives more closely and try to learn from the breaches in its defenses. It is unrealistic to expect that the 120 remaining hostages, a significant number of whom are no longer alive, can be rescued using similar methods.
In India, a vastly diminished prime minister Narendra Modi was sworn in for a third term, this weekend, only the second after Nehru to achieve reach such a level, but this time, exceptionally, with the need for a coalition with 15 other parties to rule, several of whom have demanded substantial concessions.
As Le Monde observed:
Rahul Gandhi, the Hindu nationalist leader [Modi]'s main political rival, was appointed to lead the Indian opposition in Parliament, after his party, the Congress party, doubled its number of seats.
But leave it to the great Swiss cartoonist Herrmann to capture the essence of the moment…..
Modi re-elected without an absolute majority / "I asked for a couch"
Gérald Herrmann was born in 1958 and studied literature before taking up cartooning. He began his career as a cartoonist in 1987 at Courrier de Genève before joining the editorial staff of La Liberté of Fribourg, L'Hebdo andSonntagszeitung. He currently draws for the Tribune de Genève and is a member of the extraordinary collective Cartooning for Peace.
Here’s how Hermann envisions himself:
Thanks for reading Andelman Unleashed! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Macron should have consulted with David first. The European results are calamitous.
Thank you, David, for this succinct encapsulation of the European elections and what they portend.
I value your Sunday letters!