TWTW: The World This Week #96 + Elections 2024: France

Elections 2024: France ungovernable? ... Where's Donald? ... Putin scrambles the deck ... Iran opens up a crack? ... Olympics: high water threats ... Cartoonist Hajjaj looks at Netanyahu's footwear.

In this weekly feature for Andelman Unleashed, we combine our mission to explore how the media of other nations are reporting and commenting on the United States, and how they are viewing the rest of the world with our reporting on campaigns leading up to perhaps the most epiphanal elections of all those we are examining worldwide [until America's in November!]

Elections 2024

France looming large

The first round of an election that could set the course of France and much of Europe for years is but a week away and seems to be turning into a battle of the extremes in the form of a string of polls that suggests no one has a very good idea at all which way the winds may blow or which leader will come out on top. At the eye of this storm, of course, is the one person who set all this in motion—President Emmanuel Macron who has somehow, through it all, maintained his sang froid against all odds and to the frustration of so many.

Still, a range of informed opinion across the political spectrum suggests that Macron's barely-ruling plurality in the National Assembly he just dissolved could give way—to a slim far-right plurality or a definitive vote for none and that could lead to utter gridlock.

This is what the new National Assembly could look like from the latest polling in the center-right daily Le Figaro:

Macron's working total of 250 seats, supplemented most often by other centrists in the 577-seat parliament he just dissolved, would drop to a back-bench size of 80-110, while Marine Le Pen's far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and its allies would soar to 240 seats from 89. What is troubling is that under this projection, RN would still have enough firepower to demand that Macron name the leader of the RN—28-year-old Jordan Bardella—as prime minister and allow him to choose a radical right cabinet. But they still would need to scramble for a majority on virtually every measure that comes to a vote. The worst-case scenario is not unthinkable—a nation that is all but ungovernable.

Still, there are other polls that are somewhat less apocalyptic. Like Le Parisien:

Of course, it posits an even more questionable outcome—no one group comes within hailing distance of an absolute majority. As Henry Vernet wrote in his Le Parisien report accompanying this poll that suggests a "cohabitation" or the reality of a president locked in the Elysée palace forced to "cohabit" with a parliament and government of a decidedly different persuasion:

Citizens are not afraid of possible cohabitation. They have clearly recorded, in particular, that in this system the center of gravity of power is no longer at the Élysée but at [the prime minister's offices in] Matignon, with a National Assembly carrying all the weight.

That is provided there can be any agreement on anything at all. Indeed, revolving door parliaments and governments so destabilized France under the Fourth Republic that in 1958 Charles de Gaulle was forced to step in, craft a new constitution and launch a Fifth Republic.

Even with the strong presidency De Gaulle inaugurated, the constitution of the 5th Republic is not without a potential glitch—not unlike that of America's electoral college—that now leaves France open to the possibility of utter chaos.

Does anyone beyond France care? You betcha. As Andelman Unleashed SubStack colleagues David Carretta and Christian Spillmann, in their indispensable La Matinale Européenne, observed from their perch at European Union headquarters in Brussels:

Macron lost France, Europe loses France

The Europeans' observation is terrible: Emmanuel Macron has lost France and Europe is losing France.

“I heard the message, the concerns,” assured the Head of State [Macron] before announcing his decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call early legislative elections…. Stupor and anger. The dissolution plays into the hands of the far right, whose electorate is mobilized after the European [parliamentary] victory….

Faced with the extreme right, the [moderate] right hesitates, the center is disoriented and the left divides. Three weeks is a short time to form a republican front with parties that hate each other. Macron’s “majority” will fade away.

The Economist's Paris correspondent, Sophie Pedder, was even more brutal:

The cruel irony at the heart of the European elections: at the European level, the center has held. In France, under the leadership of [Macron], one of the most pro-European centrists in the EU, the center has been crushed.

Finally, it's clear the stakes for France itself could not be higher if either the far-right (RN) or far-left (NFP) wins, as the magazine Le Point found in talking with the former longtime head of Apple France:

How others see America

Where’s Donald?

For the moment, the United States seems to have faded from the front page of most foreign media in the past week, though that's certainly likely to change with Thursday's presidential debate. Le Monde carried only one small box all week on page one referring to a story inside on Biden "facilitating the status of migrants married to Americans….The president wants to give pledges to his left-wing on one of the major issues of the campaign."

But the leading Warsaw daily Wyborcza is still worrying a lot about what might happen to Europe, especially Poland and Ukraine, in the event of a Trump victory in November.

Maciej Czarnecki explained:

His advisers are divided into three camps: those who wanted to maintain global engagement, those who would like to focus firmly on China, and isolationists. His policy will depend on who gains Trump's greater respect (if, of course, he defeats Joe Biden in November)….

- The adviser who currently seems to be most strongly shaping the attitude of the Republican Party and the course of Trump's future foreign policy is [former deputy assistant secretary of defense from 2017-18] Elbridge Colby, who supports limiting the U.S. role in Europe and focusing on Asia. Such a scenario is possible, although there are different trends among Republicans. The question is whether this will be combined with Trump's attempt to seek a peace agreement with Russia over the heads of Ukrainians….

- The key thing is that Trump is basically unpredictable and transactional….During his term, Trump has repeatedly shown that he lacks a coherent vision of foreign policy and is guided by impulses heavily influenced by personal sympathies and animosities, rather than strategic analyses….

Another thing is that Trump has repeatedly proven that he has quite limited knowledge about the world….For Trump, "Ukrainians are basically Russians."

How others see the World

Putin scrambles the deck….

In a four-day sprint through North Korea and Vietnam, Vladimir Putin seems to have scrambled quite effectively the strategic decks across Asia and much of the world.

I had a chance to run all this down quite succinctly with the incomparable Fredricka Whitfield on CNN just after Putin returned to Moscow: [or click the arrow below].

Not surprisingly, the leading South Korean media dug in, most reflecting back on the days immediately following the Korean War that ended seven decades ago, when communism and capitalism found their way to an uneasy truce that may now be facing its biggest test. As a team of four reporters wrote in the leading Seoul daily Dong Ilbao:

With Russia emerging as a new security threat to Korea and South Korea-Russia relations in turmoil, when North Korea and Russia simultaneously threatened retaliation, the South Korean government emphasized a joint response between Korea, the United States and Japan. The security threat brought about by the North Korea-Russia military alliance appears to be accelerating not only the conflict between South Korea and Russia but also a new Cold War confrontation between Korea, the United States, and Japan versus North Korea and Russia….

Next week, the US Navy's nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt will participate in 'Freedom Edge', a multi-domain joint exercise between Korea, the US and Japan. It has been reported that there is a plan to expand communication at the level of the heads of the security offices of the three countries—Korea, the United States, and Japan—as well as the ministers of foreign affairs and defense. It is reported that Korea's participation in the US-Japan 2+2 Foreign and Defense Ministers' Meeting to be held in Japan at the end of next month is also being considered. A high-ranking government official said, “If necessary, we can also participate.”
A senior official in the [South Korea] Presidential Office said, “Whether and at what level to provide weapons to Ukraine depends on what Russia does.” 

Or as the great Indian cartoonist Paresh Nath suggested, both countries appear to be feasting on their new cooperation.

Still, Japanese commentators see threats even further afield from this new condominium, as Nikkei Asia reported from Tokyo:

China-Russia-Iran-North Korea axis heightens the risk of WWIII

Simultaneous conflicts in Europe and Asia could become tomorrow's nightmare….

Ukraine's increasingly desperate battle against the invading forces is not the only bad news for the world. Equally disturbing is a sign that China, North Korea and Iran are deepening ties with Moscow to help Russia's war machine.

The formation of an anti-Western "coalition" or "axis" by Russia, China, North Korea and Iran marks a shift in the dynamics of Russia's aggression, effectively changing it from a conflict between Ukraine and Russia to a broader confrontation that essentially pits China, Russia, North Korea and Iran against the Western bloc.

Russia's reciprocal military support to North Korea and Iran has also become more evident, creating a vicious cycle of escalating tensions in Asia and the Middle East.

And then there was Vietnam. Just as we thought Saigon and Beijing might be headed for a collision—in the South China Sea, as Andelman Unleashed reported two weeks ago, before Putin's visits—now we hear via the Telegram channel Asianomics, that Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh will be headed to China tomorrow :

This is the example of Vietnam balancing relations of the key world players. Right after Vladimir Putin left Hanoi, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink visited Vietnam. Now one of the highest representatives of the Vietnamese leadership is going to China…. China is still slightly more important to Hanoi among other priorities.

In its next item, however, Asianomics reported:

Chinese Coast Guard armed with knives [were] trying to slash Philippines boats near Second Thomas Shoal.

Meanwhile in Iran …

Where snap presidential elections are coming along Friday to choose a successor to President Ebrahim Raisi, killed in a helicopter crash, there is some perception of a softening of lines. As Najmeh Bozorgmehr reported from Tehran for London's Financial Times:

The reformist contender in Iran’s presidential election has put his hardline rivals on the back foot by thrusting the revival of nuclear talks with world powers and the compulsory hijab at the centre of the political debate.

On the campaign trail this week, Masoud Pezeshkian has made clear that if he were to win the June 28 vote, he would seek improved relations with the west over Iran’s nuclear programme to ease US sanctions and would take a softer stance on requiring women to cover their heads. His focus on contentious issues has rattled rivals, underscoring how authorities’ surprise decision to approve the reformist’s candidacy has shaken up an election that many had expected to be a predictable contest between regime-approved conservatives.

There remains considerable skepticism in some circles, however, as Middle East Eye suggested that the fix may be in:

Either the Islamic Republic believes that excluding independents and reformists doesn't work and the state must be more inclusive, or it is just a trap to provoke a high turnout, especially after the record low turnout in the past presidential elections.

The Biden Administration is even allowing the Iranian government to run 30 polling stations across the United States, a move not universally popular as Iran International reported:

"Preposterous. The concept of a free and fair election under the Islamic Republic is a fallacy," said Iranian-British activist and actress Nazanin Boniadi. "While regime opponents are advocating for a boycott, the US inexplicably permits absentee ballots for this farce?"

Still, there may be some suggestion that the person holding the only real power in Iran—the Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—is softening his stance in response to overwhelming public opinion. As Deutsche Welle reported:

Iran's Supreme Court overturned a death sentence against rapper Toomaj Salehi, the artist's lawyer said. Salehi was jailed in October 2022 after he publicly supported widespread protests sparked by the death of Kurdish woman Jina Mahsa Amini in police custody.

Her death in police custody was followed by widespread protests and an ensuing crackdown in which hundreds of people died, including dozens of security personnel. Nine people have been executed in cases related to the protest movement involving killings and violence against security forces.

Salehi has also made songs and music videos criticizing Iran's government. In April, Salehi was sentenced to death by an Iranian court for the capital offence of "corruption on Earth" and was also convicted of "assistance in sedition."

Don't forget the Olympics….

We’ll be at what is supposed to be a lavish opening ceremony on the Seine, the majestic river that bisects the City of Paris. On Monday (tomorrow) there was supposed to be a dress rehearsal. But that won't happen. Late Friday evening it was suddenly canceled on orders of the prefect (chief of police) of the Ile de France (Paris region). As France Inter reported:

Nearly a month before the start of the Games, the rehearsal for the opening ceremony which was to be held on Monday with the entire fleet of boats was postponed due to the high flow of the Seine, according to the prefecture of the Ile-de-France region.

A rehearsal was held successfully last Monday, but the one scheduled for June 24 is the third to be postponed due to heavy rain. The flow of the river on Friday was approximately five times higher than in the classic summer period, which would not allow “drawing the most relevant lessons,” judged the prefecture and the Paris-2024 organizing committee.

What it's supposed to look like

In addition, the Seine remains too polluted to host events. The suspense remains over the holding of the triathlon and marathon swimming events, scheduled from July 30. “At one point or another, the weather will change, it will stop raining and we will have sunshine. (…) It is in summer conditions that we must be able to examine swimmability,” according to the regional prefect Marc Guillaume.

As for the triathlon and marathon events where swimmers will actually have to go into the waters, France Inter continued:

The Seine has not yet reached the minimum requirements to participate in the Olympic Games. A month and a half before the start of the Olympics, the river which crosses the capital remains too polluted to authorize triathlon and open water swimming (or marathon swimming) events, according to analysis results published Friday June 21. “There is no doubt that the quality of water today is not up to par ,” acknowledged regional prefect Marc Guillaume, while saying he was “confident” on the holding of competitions scheduled from July 30. 

A question, I raised quite frankly  and directly 11 months ago:

And then there are the bureaucrats. As Le Monde reported:

 Around 100,000 public officials mobilized for the Olympics

The government published, on Sunday June 23, texts allowing the payment of additional bonuses of up to €1,500 [$1,600] to several categories of civil servants mobilized within the framework of the Olympic (JO) or Paralympic (JOP) Games in Paris.

It will no doubt warm the cockles of your heart that all those French bureaucrats making your life miserable will actually be getting bonuses for their service!

Finally, there’s …. Hajjaj

The great Jordanian cartoonist Hajjaj suggests, "Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself isolated at the head of the Israeli government since the resignation of centrist leaders Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot from his war cabinet. He is now facing demonstrations on a scale not seen since October 7. Thousands of Israelis are taking to the streets to demand early elections, while the Prime Minister only governs with his far-right allies."

And he clearly spends some considerable listening to his shoe.

Osama Hajjaj, who Andelman Unleashed last published on January 6 reflecting on his hopes for the new year 2024, draws for the Jordanian daily Alquds but is known throughout the Arab world. Earlier, he worked for several newspapers including Al Mar'a, Al Dustour, Al Belad, Al Ittihad in Abu Dhabi, and Al Rray . He also worked with Jordanian television for the program “Ala Al Awa Sawa," and is a member of the global Paris-based collective Cartooning for Peace. 

Here’s how Hajjaj imagines himself: