Unleashed Voices: In the Kremlin’s shadow—competing crises
Edgars Rinkēvičs, Latvia’s remarkable new president talks about his nation’s role in the world, the perils of all who border Putin’s Russia, how Europe can parse two conflicts at once, & his outlook.
This is the latest compelling individual, to whom Andelman Unleashed has given voice, exploring the most critical issues of our time.
RIGA, Latvia—The Baltic nations and Europe broadly find themselves today in a most difficult and dangerous convergence of crises: Torn by an existential conflict on their eastern flank when Russia invaded Ukraine, then a crisis in the Middle East that threatens to divert the world’s attention and resources, coupled with the rise of an insurgent right across a host of European nations.
But if there is a single European leader capable of navigating these treacherous shoals, it is Latvia’s newly-minted president, Edgars Rinkēvičs—just turned 50 years old and three months into his term as the leader of this central Baltic nation. For his entire life, he has lived in the shadow of Russia. Born as a citizen of the Soviet Union when Latvia was a Soviet republic, he lived through his nation’s struggle for independence before serving for a dozen years as foreign minister. Now, since July he has been president of the Latvian republic.
For an interpretation of my conversation with President Rinkēvičs, do have a look at my CNN Opinion column:
Slight of build, but with a commanding, if low-key presence, his piercing blue eyes fix any visitor, conveying at once sympathy and a brilliance in command of every nuance of policy and circumstance. He is equally unique among European leaders—today, the only EU head of state publicly to have acknowledged his LGBTQ status when he came out in a tweet in 2014.
For the moment, it is Russia that overwhelms his thoughts, as David A. Andelman discovered when he talked with him on the sidelines of the Riga Conference 2023, though a host of other issues have converged also to capture his attention.
ANDELMAN Unleashed: I'd like to begin with the challenges of living in the shadow of Russia, your more than 200-mile frontier with Russia, especially your own large, home-grown Russian-speaking population. How have you been able to cope with all that in terms of dealing with the invasion of Ukraine?
President Edgars Rinkēvičs: We have always realized this challenge of Russia even before the illegal annexation of Crimea back in 2014, even before Russia launched the war against Georgia. One of the reasons why Latvia, along with Lithuania and Estonia did their best to join NATO and the EU was a realization, even back in the 1990s, that Russia was going to change and for the worse, not for the better. So, from that point of view, I would say we have been trying to increase the resilience of the population against Russian propaganda. This is the permanent challenge because it used to be TV, used to be printed media. It used to be radio, now it's social media in different forms. This kind of information warfare is developing. But at the same time, I think that even those Russians who do support Putin and Russia's Invasion in Ukraine, even they understand the benefits of living in the European Union, in a country that provides better education, medical services, living standards, something better than let's say having a repetition of Ukraine. What I am seeing there is still a lot of confusion in the Russian-speaking population. Some thought it was going to be a three days war and Ukraine would fall and Russia would win.
Andelman: And Latvia would be a target right after that?
Rinkēvičs: But all of a sudden it turned out that Ukraine is resilient, that Russia is not as strong as they were led to believe. So, this is challenging, but I would say that we do understand that we need to be prepared for all kinds of surprises. Mostly, I would say, hybrid warfare. I don't believe that Russia would try to attack any NATO or EU member state, but to challenge, to push the envelope in all ways possible.
Andelman: Do you as a Latvian feel threatened by Russia?
Rinkēvičs: I would say that I do not feel threatened in a way a Ukrainian would be feeling right now.
Andelman: Because of the NATO umbrella?
Rinkēvičs: I understand that if we do not invest in our defense, in our internal security, in a unity of NATO and the EU, then the situation may become darker.
Andelman: How concerned are you that the unrest in the Middle East will distract the west from focusing on the real hot war between Russia and Ukraine?
Rinkēvičs: You have been working in journalism for a long time and, you know how the news cycle sometimes develops. Definitely now, for good reason, Israel, the fight against Hamas terrorists is all over the news. President Biden last night was very clearly saying that both Ukraine and Israel need attention and support. For the time being, CNN, BBC, Washington Post, Le Monde, or any leading news outlet, would be reporting what's hot. But when it comes to the political decision-making process, this is still well balanced.
Andelman: Do you think there is an equivalency between these two crises?
Rinkēvičs: In some respects of course they are different. What I believe is very similar goes to the way that either Russia or Hamas do not respect any rules of war, any international law. And they are fighting against democracies. So, it is very difficult sometimes to settle on a necessary response. What we have seen when Hamas started this, there was a kind of jubilation in Russian social media by many of those who are supporting Russian aggression against Ukraine. I do believe that both Russia as a state and Hamas as a non-state actor, do want to destroy the set of universal values of democracy, human rights, rule of law as we know it. Of course, one is also a nuclear-power, trying to restore some kind of empire—looking not back to the Soviet Union, but back to Peter the Great. But the difference of course, is that on the one hand, this is a fight between two states—Russia and Ukraine—and then there is the fight between the state of Israel and Hamas, terrorists.
There is a lot of sympathy. There is also a lot of disinformation of course, going on in both cases. I do remember those first images and complete uncertainty of what has happened in that hospital in Gaza. I remember that first reporting of 500 dead, Israelis launching a rocket. Which also shows that all of us—politicians, journalists—sometimes need to take deeper breaths, take time to get all the facts established. But during the social media era, sometimes it is difficult for both, for you journalists, when you have to report everything for us, and for when we have to make a statement.
Andelman: Last night President Biden proclaimed that America is a beacon to the world? Yet from the outside, you are really the only ones who can tell us if we really are that beacon.
Rinkēvičs: Or the Shining City on the hill as President Reagan once said, and I believe one of the most powerful speeches. I sometimes even reread it. but I do believe that even with all the skepticism both internally within the United States or externally outside of the United States, there is nobody else. We do see things that are changing rapidly, but at the same time, many in Europe, especially in my part of Europe, believe the United States is still a leader of the Free World, and the beacon, or shining city on the hill. But of course, one also wants to see that we deepen this kind of bond that we have now among nations of the free world, be it in Europe, in Asia, everywhere. I think this still is something we all are missing. Some people in the United States think they are so powerful they can address all challenges alone. Some people here in Europe think we can develop a strong Europe. The fact is that if we really want to safeguard what we have achieved so far, then we need to stick together.
Andelman: I'm interested especially in your really outspoken role, within the European Union and NATO alliance, for the need to stand up to Russia. Do you take some comfort in now having more of an ally in Poland than if the right-wing had been reelected? Are you concerned also about the arrival of the right in Slovakia? Where does it leave Latvia, the Baltics, the rest of Europe?
Rinkēvičs: Look, one thing that I want to underline is that the United States, or whoever occupies the White House, whoever has the majority in Congress or in the Polish case, whoever has a majority in the Polish parliament and forms the government, traditionally we have had and we are having very good relations. We have seen that whatever differences on our internal politics, equal rights, or rule of law, when it comes to security issues Poland is an indispensable partner for us, a gateway for our energy Independence, our transportation networks to Europe. And of course, it's a gateway for any military enforcement, and that needs to be defended at all costs to keep our lifeline. So, from that point of view, both in the Baltic region as well as in Poland, this kind of cooperation is very important for the strategic interests of all. And to that end, there is not much difference who is in charge of the government.
Now, you know this is a democratic continent. We have from time to time, governments being formed. I know how this works. There are a lot of movements and a lot of drama sometimes, but at the end of the day, we have been able to take decisions both in NATO and the EU. So, I do understand sensitivities but I would not exaggerate them.
Andelman: I do find it quite extraordinary that given their history with the decades of Soviet rule in Hungary and Slovakia, they should be embracing Russia so wholeheartedly.
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Rinkēvičs: You know I sometimes think that we do read, incorrectly, the public mood in those countries. We think the major issue is about Russia. I think the major issues, frankly, are about social security, health care, some economic policies, about migration issues. I do believe those messages resonate in a more powerful way than how we are going to deal with Russia. Indeed, here in our country, our last parliamentary elections took place in October 2022, more than half a year after Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Before that, the major issue was how successful the government was dealing with covid—whether there were enough restrictions, were they exaggerated, all the vaccinations issues. All that changed immediately. Had there been no invasion, there would have been a different set of priorities. I think we should probably read the broader picture: that in many countries social, economic issues are more important than international policy. Here, too, it's a bit different because of our proximity and our history.
Andelman: Are you worried about Donald Trump coming back to power in America?
Rinkēvičs: We have had so far good relations with both parties. We do believe that this is for the American people to decide. We are ready of course to work with whoever the American people elect. Does it help if I worry about that? I'm not paid for being worried. I am paid for trying to do good policy for my country, under whatever circumstances.
Andelman: You are in so many respects a unique individual in Europe as a head of state. What is there that has so empowered you and made you such a model leader for your country and for Europe?
Rinkēvičs: Coincidence. Pure coincidence.
Andelman: There is never coincidence in politics.
Rinkēvičs: I don't know about that. Of course, I'm just a beginner in this office. I felt quite comfortable for almost 12 years as foreign minister that made me the second longest-serving after my colleague in Luxembourg, who is still unbeaten. He's almost 19 years in office. Politics is about consistent policies, but sometimes it's also about coincidence, and sometimes it's also about some luck. But you know, I'm kind of very cautious when people are saying that you're doing well, there are also very high expectations.
Andelman: You also have enormous moral power.
Rinkēvičs: Well yes, and things are getting more and more complicated. I remember when I became foreign minister, it was October 2011, and we were really hoping that because at that point, the President of Russia was Dmitri Medvedev, who seemed to be quite a liberal.
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We believed that it was possible, with all the challenges of the past, to find ways to cooperate with Russia, both on bilateral and multi-lateral level. But just a couple of months afterwards, all those undemocratic things started: Demonstrations, Putin being elected for a third term as president. And of course, then came the Crimea [takeover]. Then I understood that all that optimism was over. Since that time, we have been trying to warn all our friends and partners and allies that Russia is going to change for the worse.
We have been right, we are still right. But you know I would be so happy if from that point in 2014, I had been wrong. Unfortunately, maybe because of our historic experience, our own stories from our grandmothers and grandfathers, our fathers and mothers, we have this sense of realism. And sometimes even people here don't get it. [So, it’s not surprising that] people in France or Britain or Germany or the United States don't understand what is happening, what the implications could be. That's a bit, sometimes, scary. Sometimes you simply must know how to live. Then you understand that you don't have time to worry, you have plenty of work to do.
Andelman: You do have plenty of work to do. There is no question about that, Mr. President. Thank you.
SO kind of you, professor … hope certainly shared !
d.
Thanks, Phyllis ... lots more coming ... don't hesitate to react !!!