TWTW: The World This Week / Episode #81

SOTU: views from abroad...Elections: Portugal, Senegal, Russia...An autocrat in Mar-a-Lago?...Beijing plays with fire...Abortion enshrined...Women's rights interrupted ... Cartoonist Del on abortions

This weekly feature for Andelman Unleashed, continues on its mission to explore how other nations are reporting and commenting on the United States, and how they are viewing the rest of the world.

Coming to you today from Paris….with apologies: a trifle late as we’ve awaited first returns from Portugal’s landmark election on Sunday.

How others see America

The world is awakening

Joe Biden’s remarkable State of the Union made it onto the front pages of some leading international newspapers. But for The Economist in London there seems to be little but banana peels in store for either candidate en route to America’s November elections.

At 5 am in Paris, shortly after Joe Biden finished delivering the final State of the Union message of his first term, I summarized it for CNN Opinion—precisely what the world needed to hear:

Le Monde’s formidable Washington correspondent, Piotr Smolar, reported on the evening:

The President of the United States demonstrated his pugnacity and endurance during this annual meeting before Congress, portraying his rival, without naming him, as a man from the past….Every time Joe Biden is declared in political distress, he resurfaces, smiling carnivorously, armed with his inexhaustible optimism. With his State of the Union speech to Congress, he inflicted torture on Republican elected officials, who for months had mocked his supposed physical and mental decline. Over the course of a long exercise which demonstrated his endurance at 81 years old, despite an increased tendency to swallow words, the Democratic president strove to establish a contrast on all levels with Donald Trump, never named, referred to as " my predecessor. ” The man of the past, in short. The pugnacious candidate on Thursday, speaking about the future and American identity, was Joe Biden….

Joe Biden's team considers this speech as the real launch of his presidential campaign. His offensive strategy aims to highlight the existential threat that Donald Trump represents for American democracy. 

“The speech of his life,” headlined the German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung. Washington correspondent Peter Burghardt continued:

Joe Biden hadn't said a word during his State of the Union address when his supporters were already chanting three words in Congress on Thursday evening. “Four more years,” the Democrats chant, and they will do this several times in the next hour. Four more years with Biden at the helm of America or four new years with Donald Trump—that's what the presidential election on November 5th will probably be about.

That's why Biden and his advisors spent a long time refining this speech; it is perhaps the most important speech of his life….

It is a ride through the world’s crises, but above all through his America and what, for Biden's taste, happened to America under Trump and would threaten [again] under Trump. Biden says he knows American history, and there is his favorite phrase about the “battle for the soul of our nation.”

He should become more aggressive, critics advise….He should tackle Trump more directly. He does all this without [once] talking about Trump….Democrats cheer, and they shout repeatedly, "Four more years, four more years.” In about eight months we will know whether they are right.

In Asia,  Singapore’s The Straits Times headlined, “Biden shrugs off age to target Trump in combative State of the Union speech."

Washington bureau chief Bhagyashree Garekar reported:

In 2024, the State of the Union address by United States President Joe Biden could well have been billed as a “state of the president” speech, An annual fixture of American democracy, the speech by the president to a joint session of Congress typically focuses on important issues facing the United States and makes suggestions for new laws and policies. But Mr Biden used about an hour of prime time on March 7 to assuage concerns about his age and focus attention on his presumptive rival Donald Trump’s intentions….“I’ve been told I’m too old,” he said, adding that the more pertinent question was “how old our ideas are.”

But China, at least to The Straits Times Asian audience, is of paramount importance:

On the US-China relationship, which will likely be a key election topic, Mr Biden said Trump was just hot air, while the current government’s policies have been substantial. 

“We’re standing up against China’s unfair economic practices. And standing up for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” he said. “I’ve revitalised our partnerships and alliances in the Pacific. I’ve made sure that the most advanced American technologies can’t be used in China’s weapons. Frankly, for all his tough talk on China, it never occurred to my predecessor to do that.”

From Beijing, however, comes a distinctly divergent version of the same State of the Union address. “Biden touts progress on economy, immigration despite wide disapproval,” headlined the Chinese Communist party’s People’s Daily:

In a highly partisan State of the Union address, U.S. President Joe Biden launched a scorching attack on Donald Trump, his presumptive rival in the November election, and touted his achievements on issues such as inflation and immigration.

With Biden's approval ratings lingering below 40 percent for months, his remarks likely won't resonate with most Americans, who are dismayed by still high prices, an uncertain economy, a border crisis, and geopolitical conflicts, among others.

A view from Canada

For a quite compelling view of America and the world from the all-too-often-ignored perspective of Canada is about to be released as Strategic Outlook 2024 and threat assessment. It’s available in its entirety by clicking here:

Full disclosure: Andelman Unleashed played a role in editing this extraordinary and comprehensive study.

Elections 2024:  Portugal, Senegal, Russia

It was a huge night for the far-right in Portugal, voters following a growing cadre of their counterparts in other parts of Europe, vaulting the extremist Chega [‘Enough’] Party into the role, potentially, as kingmaker in establishing a majority in the 230-member parliament and forming a new government.

Indeed, the stakes could not have been higher, demonstrated by the biggest voter turnout in two decades—more than 60% of the country’s 10 million eligible casting ballots in the snap election. The election became necessary when Socialist Prime Minister António Costa was forced to resign last November after prosecutors detained his chief of staff under suspicion that Costa had been involved in corrupt trading in lithium and green hydrogen.

In Sunday’s balloting, Socialists slid to a narrow second place finish in early projections against the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) party. But in terms of clinching a 115-seat majority, the huge surge of Chega from the 12 seats they hold in the now outgoing parliament to 40 to 46 seats in the new body could tip the balance in a coalition with one of the two traditionally mainstream parties. Some estimates put Chega potentially surging as high as 54 seats, more than four times its current total. The seats controlled by Chega in the new parliament could put either the AD or PS over the top in any coalition.

As Vitor Matos reported in the leading Lisbon daily Expresso:

Unlike the other leaders, André Ventura had booked his arrival at the hotel where Chega is gathering with the confidence that there would be a great result. And so it was.

“Today is the day that marks the end of bipartisanship,” he stated, echoing what he said throughout the campaign. In an appeal to [AD leader] Luís Montenegro, Ventura's objective is to “start working in the Government tonight.”

After having spent the campaign insulting the leader of the PS—who said “no is no” to any alliance with Chega—Ventura wasted no time in appealing to the “responsibility” of the AD to form a government.

The surge of Ventura and Chega is a result of any number of domestic realities. Voters are fed up with the corruption that has been spreading all but unchecked through the government, which at the same time has failed to address a host of economic problems ranging from a crippling housing crisis and collapsing health care to lagging wages, though inflation remains largely under control at a quarter of the rate a year ago.

What is worth noting is that tonight’s vote puts the hard-right in Portugal in a powerful position for June’s elections to the European Parliament where far-right forces across Europe are hoping to position themselves as a major force in setting pan-European priorities, especially in determining the future of the war in Ukraine.

After weeks of unrest and protests, in Senegal it’s (finally) set—the date of its presidential election. As Le Monde Afrique reported:

In Senegal, all candidates are ready to campaign for the presidential election, except one, still in detention. Nineteen personalities are seeking the votes of voters but Bassirou Diomaye Faye, one of the main candidates, is in prison….The Constitutional Council, which had proposed the date of March 31, finally aligned itself with the decree of the Head of State, Macky Sall, who called the vote for Sunday, March 24 for the first round….They will only have 13 days to try to convince voters. The electoral code provides for 21 days but “the  situation  is exceptional,” the Council said.

The Senegalese African Party for Work, Ethics and Fraternity (Pastef), the main challenger of [Macky Sall], still has its two main figures in prison, accused of "calling for insurrection." Ousmane Sonko, its leader who failed to contest the last presidential race after a conviction for defamation, has been in prison [this time] since the end of July 2023. His replacement, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, has been in prison since April without having been tried.

In next week’s presidential election—effectively coronation—in Russia, Vladimir Putin, who has managed effectively to disenfranchise, imprison, or execute every potential challenger, is going into the final week of his “campaign”. Andelman Unleashed will, as pledged, report the results which are hardly either transparent or uncertain. His slogan? “Strong President…Strong Russia.”

Voting will take place, for the first time, over three days—Friday March 15 through Sunday March 17—and electronically online. Officially, it’s all to improve transparency. However, both systems have been broadly criticized by independent monitors as doing substantially the opposite and especially facilitate manipulation. It will be interesting to see how much of the electorate turns out and the result the Kremlin will feel it is necessary to record.

Andelman truly unleashed

Should you happen to be in Paris (or able to make your way here!) on Tuesday you’re all invited to a rare in-person elaboration of some of the themes we bring up regularly, with a tour d’horizon of my life and travels with a most exciting powerpoint … for details, just click here:

How others see the World

If there’s any question ….

Just what direction America will be taking from that Day One when Donald Trump pledged he would act as a dictator, there was little doubt left after Friday when Putin’s closest ally and proximate clone arrived in Mar-a-Lago to meet the presumptive Republican candidate for President. Viktor Orban appears to be precisely the type of leader Trump sees as a model of governance. And the whole world is watching, horrified. As the Australian Financial Review reported:

Former President Donald Trump praised Viktor Orban as a “fantastic leader” while poking fun at criticism of the Hungarian prime minister’s self-proclaimed illiberal tendencies as the two populist leaders met Friday at Mar-a-Lago. Orban “is a non-controversial figure because he says, ‘this is the way it’s going to be,’ and that’s the end of it,” Trump joked to a room full of attendees at his Florida resort, according to video of the event posted by Orban on Instagram. “Right? He’s the boss. No—he’s a great leader, fantastic leader.”

“PEACE MAKERS … Meeting with President Donald Trump.”

Trump feted Orban with a tour of his residence, dinner with former first Lady Melania Trump, an hour-long meeting with senior aides, and musical performance by a band covering Roy Orbison.

The meeting is a defiant act by Trump just a day after President Joe Biden in his State of the Union address accused his presumptive November opponent and Republicans of turning their backs on democratic ideals by blocking additional assistance for Ukraine….Orban has in the past urged the West to cut off financing for Ukraine, which he has said is the quickest way to force Kyiv to negotiate a ceasefire with Russia.

In short, a preview of the next steps toward “peace” in Ukraine?

Playing with fire in Beijing?

The highly anticipated Two Sessions of the Chinese National People’s Congress culminated with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi holding a press conference dealing with a range of issues, summarized by Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post:

·      Those who ‘play with fire’ over Taiwan ‘will get burned’

·       Conflict with US is ‘unimaginable’ and repeats China’s support for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and a two-state solution

·       China has acted with restraint in the South China Sea and backs peace talks in Ukraine at the ‘right time’

Wang says the one-China principle is the general consensus of the international community, and condoning support for “Taiwan independence” is a challenge to Beijing’s sovereignty. He reiterates Beijing’s refrain that it will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with Taiwan and that it will not allow Taiwan to be separated from the mainland. Those who support Taiwan independence, he warns, will “get burned for playing with fire”.

China is still optimistic about negotiations over a South China Sea code of conduct. Wang adds that Beijing has exercised a “high degree of restraint” in its maritime disputes.

China looming

Wang says disputes in the South China Sea should be “properly managed” through dialogue and consultation, and peace in the disputed waterway should be upheld by China and ASEAN countries, referring to the regional bloc of Southeast Asian countries. “Extraterritorial countries” should not become disruptors in the South China Sea, Wang says, adding that China warns countries not to pick sides in the dispute.

Abortion, enshrined

At a ceremony before the Ministry of Justice, thousands packed into Paris’s venerable Place Vendôme, the universal right to an abortion was “sealed” into the French constitution by Minister of Justice Éric Dupond-Moretti. President Emmanuel Macron looked on with approval at the process he’d launched that cemented France as the world’s first nation to take such a step.

The Paris daily Le Figaro picked up the story:

“The seal of the Republic seals on this day a long fight for freedom,” proclaimed Macron [who] confirmed his desire to include the “freedom to resort” to abortion “in the charter of fundamental rights of the European Union”, where according to him “nothing can be taken for granted and everything must be defended.”

The sealing ceremony, visible here by clicking below, used a 200-year-old press, was nationally televised, and provoked enormous emotion.

The president wanted “a popular ceremony” to mark “the culmination of this collective fight” a few days after the approval of the constitutional amendment by the National Assembly. He also brought flowers to the tombs of “great figures” of feminism who contributed to the revision of the Constitution, including Gisèle Halimi and Simone Veil.

And then, there’s the Irish

Back to your kitchens, ye Irish wenches. That was the view expressed by nearly three-quarters of the Irish voters who bothered to show up and vote for a very different source of amendment to the Irish constitution.  As Al Jazeera reported:

The two proposals would have made changes to the text of article 41 in the Irish constitution, written in 1937.

The first asked citizens to expand the definition of family from those founded on marriage to also include “durable relationships” such as cohabiting couples and their children.

And then there was the change that would have removed the provision that, after all, it’s women who run the home, the implication being it’s there and no place else that they really belong.  As London’s Guardian put it, the vote was “a rebuke to a government that had urged voters not to take a ‘step backwards.’” And then the voters did just that.

So, here’s how the Irish constitution will continue to read:

The state recognises that by her life within the home, woman gives to the state a support without which the common good cannot be achieved. The state shall, therefore, endeavour to ensure that mothers shall not be obliged by economic necessity to engage in labour to the neglect of their duties in the home.

Back to 1937 … and on International Women’s Day.

Finally, there’s Del ….

The great Italian cartoonist Del shows a track star holding the French constitution and crossing the finish line (“My Body, My Choice”) triumphantly, leaving prostrate on the track an American, whose the rights to an abortion have been contracted in sharp contrast with France.

Emanuele Del Rosso, who draws under the name ‘Del,’ is an Italian political cartoonist. Born in Trento in 1986, he studied literature in Milan and Trento before obtaining a degree in journalism at the University of Groningen.

An organizer of the European Caricature Prize, he draws for a number of  online magazines and newspapers around the world including Le Monde and Courrier International in Paris, Dutch newspapers Het Financieele Dagblad and Den Haag Centraal, Le Temps in Switzerland, and the international environmental magazine Renewable Matters. His drawings have been exhibited in several cities, including Amsterdam, The Hague, Limburg, Paris, Trento, Conversano and Ramallah. He is a member of the inestimable Cartooning for Peace collective.

Here’s how Del Rosso imagines himself….