TWTW: The World This Week / Episode #78

France & Germany to Ukraine's rescue…Then the assassination… Ukraine on the ground...Elections 24…Chinese at the Mexican border…a Russian spy in France…and Dilem's cartoon.

This weekly feature for Andelman Unleashed, continues on its mission to explore how the media of other nations are reporting and commenting on the United States, and how they are viewing the rest of the world.

An historical prelude

Before we set out on our journey this week, dear reader, an historical prelude…and an apology. We have a lot of territory to cover this week, so feel free to pick & choose!

The photo below illustrates the last time Hitler bowed to anyone, as German President Paul von Hindenburg bestowed the title of Chancellor of Germany on the leader of the Nazi party in Potsdam on March 21, 1933.

Archives of US Holocaust Museum

As the world fears increasingly the return to power of Donald Trump, and a reminder that we do chronicle every election around the world every year, it would be worthwhile looking back at the last free elections held in Germany in 1932 and 1933. There, voters gave a plurality in the Reichstag to the National Socialist (Nazi) party headed by Adolf Hitler.

The Nazi's 230 seats nearly doubled their previous count in the parliament though they still had not claimed an outright majority. The Social Democrats were fading, the Communists rising, but nothing like the surge of the Nazis.

In an effort to quell clamor in the streets, however, and against his better judgment, German president Paul von Hindenburg appointed Hitler as Chancellor. The next free election would not take place in a united Germany until 57 years and a World War had passed.

To put the arrival in power of Vladimir Putin in perspective, the Swiss daily Neue Zürcher Zeitung [ NZZ ] embarked on a series with the headline:

The worst creatures in Russia all came to power in the same way— someone decided to put a colorless person of no importance in charge so that nothing would change….The horror of war with its psychological depths and absurd situations remains urgently present.

In 1938, Stalin was already well into his murderous Great Purge, aided and abetted by his secret police chief Lavrenty Beria. Nikita Khrushchev, dispatched by Stalin to be overlord of Ukraine, was waiting in the wings.

NZZ continued:

Putin is a black box. The years of his rule will go down as one of the darkest eras in Russian history—if there is a history of post-Putin Russia.

How others see America

Fear and desperation abroad

The roots of Europe's desperation today are clear. As the leading French daily Le Monde noted in its banner headline Friday morning: "France and Germany to the rescue of Ukraine." The clearly stated fear, as the paper wrote on its front page:

European mobilization becomes all the more crucial since, from the beginning of the year, the United States has no longer delivered weapons to Ukrainians.

But with the assassination of Alexei Navalny, the absence of America from the world's equation became all the more vividly into focus.

So, the signatures by German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz, followed immediately by French President Emmanuel Macron, on security guarantees with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky were couched as a direct response to the refusal by Republicans in the US to come to the aid of the one nation ready to confront the forces of Vladimir Putin on the field of battle.

And then came the assassination

Few countries are more directly impacted by what happens in Moscow than Poland, and few individuals have a personal history more intense with the Kremlin then Adam Michnik. Now editor of Poland's daily Wyborocza, when I first knew him nearly a half century ago, Michnik was a leading dissident who so often butted heads with the leaders the Kremlin had placed over its satellite. So, his reaction to the murder of Navalny was as quick and visceral as any:

The death of Alexei Navalny is a blow to democracy around the world. Navalny was a sign that a different, democratic and honest Russia was possible. And Putin achieved his goal. Once again he turned out to be a specialized killer.

Navalny was an outstanding personality. I had the opportunity to talk to him and I will remember these conversations forever. I would like us to think of him, as [the great 19^th century Polish poet Adam] Mickiewicz wrote, a "Muscovite friend".

It's scary to think about what Putin might do. The murder of Alexei opens the way to actions that threaten the democratic world….The world may face a terrible danger, a terrible war.

I think with sadness about Alexei's death and with anxiety about what his murderer might do next. One thing is certain—the death of Alexei Navalny is an order to ruthlessly fight the Putin regime.

It is an "order" that appears to have truly galvanized much of the world, even stretches that may have been tiring of the still endless and apparently stalemated struggle that Ukraine is waging against Putin's forces.

As Alexandra von Nahman, Brussels bureau chief and former Moscow bureau chief of Germany's DW [Deutsche Welle], quoted Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference, in a pointed jab at the Republican-controlled US Congress, which refused to take up the Senate-passed Ukraine aid package just before heading out on a two week recess:

Please remember, everyone, that dictators do not go on vacation.

While Navalny's mother and lawyer continued their search for her son's body above the Arctic Circle, and the world beyond Russia mourned his passing, the pro-Navalny independent Russian news service SOTA carried his last words, a 68-second appearance by remote camera and apparently without counsel, before a judge and prosecutor from his remote prison 1,500 miles northeast of Moscow the day before his assassination. There was no question that he was healthy and relaxed as he joked with the two Russian officials about the fines they were leveling on him, above and beyond his decades in prison.

Translating these remarks for us, the great Russian dissident journalist, Mikhail Zygar, who appeared in Andelman Unleashed last July for the launch of his new book: War and Punishment: Putin, Zelensky, and The Path to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine e-mailed us with Navalny's final words:

Your honor, okay, I will be waiting. You have (or I will send you) my account number. I am sure that with your huge salary as a federal judge, you can afford sending me money [everybody is laughing] because I am running out of money and with your decision my money will run out even faster. And everyone here, you are welcome to contribute, too. See you soon.

By Sunday, there came a more immediate and pressing question. Where's the body? Again, the BBC leads its report:

Ukraine: On the ground

Things are going from bad worse and Zelensky was hardly exaggerating during his visit to the Munich Security Conference. As the Institute for the Study of War reported Saturday night, as Ukrainian forces completed their withdrawal from Avdiivka in the face of heavy Russian action:

Russian forces appear to have temporarily established limited and localized air superiority and were able to provide ground troops with close air support during the final days of their offensive operation to capture Avdiivka, likely the first time that Russian forces have done so in Ukraine….Russian forces launched 60 KAB glide bombs at Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka over the past day, and a Ukrainian soldier operating in the area stated that Russian forces launched up to 500 glide bombs at Avdiivka. Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated that Russian forces conducted 73 airstrikes in the Tavriisk direction…a record number….

Russian forces have gradually increased their use of glide bombs throughout the theater since early 2023, but the recent mass use of glide bombs in Avdiivka is the first time that Russian aviation has used these bombs at scale to provide close air support to advancing infantry troops.

This map, showing the vast and growing areas of Russian control in Ukraine and where Russia is deploying tens of thousands of troops is striking:

But the critical comment from ISW, suggesting just what Congressional inaction is doing on Ukraine's battle lines, is even more troubling:

Delays in Western security assistance may lead to further significant constraints on Ukrainian air defenses that could allow Russian forces to replicate the close air support that facilitated Russian advances in Avdiivka at scale in Ukraine. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated on February 17 that one of the main lessons learned from the defense of Avdiivka is that Ukrainian forces need modern air defense systems to prevent Russian forces from using glide bombs. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that Ukrainian air defenses need to shoot down the Russian Su-34 and Su-35 attack aircraft that launch the glide bombs in order to stop the strikes.

Ukraine no longer has that capability.

Elections 2024:  Pakistan, Indonesia, India, Senegal

Voters in Pakistan and Indonesia have now chosen, in a manner of speaking, their new governments, though somewhat in question is how much real say the people had in their choice in what are still, nominally, democracies. I pointed all this out and more in my exploration of both contests for Francis Fukuyama's great magazine, American Purpose, edited by Carolyn Stewart.

And then there's India—a nation of 1.4 million with a minority Muslim population of 204 million—where Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself appeared to move jarringly even further from the democracy the country has cherished for much of its independence. Modi has already embarked on a string of efforts that opponents charge is aimed at protecting the Hindu majority that’s been the foundation of his rule.

As Le Monde pointed out last month, "Modi launched his [re-election] campaign by weaponizing Hinduism.” Now, the leaders of the opposition Congress Party, which itself long ruled India under the Gandhi dynasty, disclosed this week that the government had frozen all their bank accounts just as the April-May election campaign is poised to begin. "The Congress party’s bank accounts haven’t been frozen. It’s the democracy that has been frozen,” said party treasurer Ajay Maken. “Will there be only a one party system in this country?”

As for Senegal, the nation was to have held its election February 25, until incumbent two-term President Macky Sall, who is seeking to hold onto power, postponed the voting until December 15.

Now, as Al Jazeera reported, the nation is in turmoil and Macky Sall has been forced to re-think his efforts:

The Constitutional Council, Senegal’s top election authority voided the government’s postponement of a presidential election [ruling] that the moves were unconstitutional….The postponement has thrown the country, usually seen as one of the most stable in West Africa, into political turmoil, with three people killed and dozens arrested during protests….Several jailed government opponents were released from prison in an apparent effort by Sall to appease public opinion. Several hundred opposition members have been arrested since 2021, 

As pledged, Andelman Unleashed will be chronicling all these votes.

How others see the World

Chinese coming to America?

Those immigrants arriving at America's southern border aren't all Hispanics, nor as Andelman Unleashed chronicled two weeks ago, from Africa.  Masahiro Okoshi from Nikkei Asia has been tracing the route being followed by any number of Chinese:

Chinese migrants flock to the U.S.-Mexico border, driven by desperate economic pressures. Their encounters with American authorities jumped 10-fold in 2023.

"We spent two and a half days walking through a rainforest," said a 10-year-old boy who proudly recounted his family's life-or-death journey before crossing into the U.S. at dawn on Feb. 4. Originating from China's Shandong province, the journey started Dec. 21 when the family entered Thailand, which does not require visas for Chinese arrivals. From Thailand, the family members flew to Turkey and then Ecuador—another country that does not require visas from Chinese travelers. They entered Colombia by vehicle and took a vessel to the edge of the Darien Gap, a region connecting Panama to South America. The family members walked through the rainforest for two-and-a-half days before reaching Panama proper and then rode into Mexico by vehicle.

From there, they paid Chinese smugglers to bring them across the U.S. border at Tijuana, Mexico. It appears that in most cases, it takes about $5,000 to travel to the U.S. border. In other words, the migrants journeying to American spend the equivalent of more than a third of the average annual income of a person working at a Chinese company.

"I was a sales agent for condominiums," one Chinese migrant said. When people hailing from such places as Sichuan, Fujian and Liaoning provinces were asked their former occupations, at least five said they once worked in the real estate sector….Some were undoubtedly fleeing oppression and persecution by an authoritarian government in search of freedom of expression and religion in a new land. But most were regular people struggling to make ends meet.

When I pointed out that the Chinese leadership has been touting the bright future for the Chinese economy, a man from Fujian province laughed as he said: "That's propaganda intended for those outside China. This is the reality."

And then, plus que ça change ... the more things change

The French newsweekly L'Express, revealed three days before the assassination of Alexei Navalny, that their esteemed longtime editor-in-chief had served a second master for decades, as he became close to every major player in France:

The director of L'Express was…a KGB agent: our revelations about Philippe Grumbach. This big name in the press provided information to the secret services of the USSR for thirty-five years. His intimate entourage confirmed this occult relationship to L'Express. Close to Mitterrand and Giscard, he was, unbeknownst to everyone, one of the greatest Soviet spies of the Fifth Republic.

This gathering, at the rue de Solferino headquarters of the Socialist Party, across the street from our apartment in Paris, was two years before Mitterrand became president, but by then head of the powerful Socialists.

Grumbach, a fifty-year-old, whose tall stature and strong features make him intimidating, appears more imperial than ever in a suit, tie and pocket square, with a patriarchal smile on his lips. “An aristocrat of the press”, wrote L’Express upon his death in 2003. At the beginning of the 1980s, the journalist was a powerful man, on the borders of media, politics, fashion and cinema….Philippe Grumbach is a close friend of [future President] François Mitterrand. He has been especially close for several years to the President of the Republic, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing. In October 1977, Le Canard Enchainé described him as "one of the most listened to advisors" of the head of state. What no one knows is that the influential press boss is hiding a dark secret. He is one of the main KGB agents in France. Reading his service records, we could even consider him one of the greatest Soviet spies of the Fifth Republic.

How did it all come out…now?

In 1992, with the fall of the USSR, Vassili Mitrokhine, chief archivist of the Soviet secret service between 1972 and 1982 and a KGB lieutenant colonel, defected to the United Kingdom. He took with him all his archives, thousands of copied notes on secret operations, hundreds of names of spies. Since 2014, they have been stored at the University of Cambridge….In early December 2018 Cyril Gelibter, a doctoral student in the history of diplomacy at the Sorbonne University, went to Cambridge to consult the Mitrokhine archives.

The rest is history.

Finally, there’s Dilem….

The great Algerian cartoonist Dilem worries how, "menaced by Trump over NATO" alliance members might react to his bringing a Russian bear to play. "OK, I'm going to pay," the little NATO hostage nation screams to a quite self-satisfied Trump.

Ali Dilem, who Andelman Unleashed last published in June on Biden demurring on Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, signs his works simply with his last name, Dilem, and describes himself as "a cartoonist for as long as I can remember," having begun his career as a cartoonist with the daily Le Jeune Indépendant in 1990, joining Le Matin a year later. Known for his outspokenness against the regime of Algerian dictator Abdelaziz Bouteflika, he has been subjected to more than 60 trials. The recipient of the International Press Cartoon Prize in 2000, he was made a chevalier of the prestigious French Order of Arts and Letters in 2010. He is featured in the extraordinary collective Cartooning for Peace.

Here’s how Dilem imagines himself: