TWTW: The World This Week #98 + Elections 2024: Iran, Britain, then France

Throw-the-bums-out elections Iran, Britain, France (plus Mozambique)... Orban visits his Kremlin bff ... Olympique flame lands at Dieppe ... Cartoonist Chappatte sees our Republic cracking

In this weekly feature for Andelman Unleashed, we combine our mission to explore how the media of other nations are reporting and commenting on the United States, and how they are viewing the rest of the world with our reporting on campaigns leading up to perhaps the most epiphanal elections of all those we are examining worldwide [until America's in November!]

Elections 2024

If there’s one theme that sweeps this week’s trio of major elections it’s throw-the- bums-out. With all the consequences and holding one’s breath, from Britain on Thursday, Iran on Friday and as anticipated France tomorrow, a desire for generational changes or revolutionary ideals, often seen through kaleidoscopic prisms, have stood convention and tradition, even good sense, on their head.

Iran: A turn for the better?

Voters in Iran, at least those who even bothered to go to the polls, chose potentially dramatic change, catapulting a candidate that in most countries would be seen as barely center-left but there is seen as holding the potential of quite dramatic social, political, even religious transformation at home and abroad.

Barely half the nation's eligible voters even bothered to cast their ballots, though in fairness, his margin would likely have been much larger had more cared enough about the system to bother. As The Guardian of London reported:

The reformist Masoud Pezeshkian has pulled off a stunning victory in the Iranian presidential runoff, reflecting deep dissatisfaction with the direction of the country in recent years and opening potential new avenues of cooperation with the west.

Pezeshkian won 16,384,403 votes to defeat the ultra-conservative Saeed Jalili, who received 13,538,179 votes, on a final turnout of 49.8% – a big increase on the record low turnout of 39% recorded in the first round. In the first round, Pezeshkian came out on top, defeating three Conservative rivals. The turnout included more than 1m invalid votes.

Pezeshkian has been an advocate of letting women choose whether to wear the hijab and ending internet restrictions that require the population to use VPN connections to avoid government censorship. He said after his victory: “The difficult path ahead will not be smooth except with your companionship, empathy and trust.”

But there is more to his mandate and a potential rocky path to success. As The Guardian continued:

Under the slogan “For Iran”, Pezeshkian had promised to be a voice of the voiceless, saying protests must not be met with the police baton. Although some regard him as naive in high politics, a large part of his campaign was deliberately framed around his personal integrity, as well as his absence from ministerial office for the past decade. There were immediate calls from his backers to release political prisoners from jails, a symbol of the pent-up demands he may struggle to satisfy.

Pezeshkian faces a minefield in trying to bring about change, and although he has said he is loyal to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he has also said he will resign if he feels he is being thwarted and will then call on the population to withdraw from the political process.

But for some of his more critical and certainly hard-to-achieve challenges, much depends on how the West, particularly the United States, responds:

 Pezeshkian argued in successive, often acrimonious TV debates that he could not bring about change, including the lowering of 40% inflation, unless he could secure the lifting of some sanctions, which would require a less confrontational approach to international relations.

As it happens, Pezeshkian racked up some early, at time questionable, congratulations as tabulated by Al Jazeera:

RUSSIA:  President Vladimir Putin congratulated Pezeshkian and said he hoped it would contribute to Russia-Iran relations. “I hope that your tenure as president will contribute to a reinforcement of constructive bilateral cooperation between our friendly peoples,” Putin said.

The big question here: does that mean more drones for Russian forces to use against Ukraine?

SAUDI ARABIA:  King Salman and the crown prince congratulated Pezeshkian. “I affirm my keenness on developing and deepening the relations between our countries and people and serve our mutual interests,” Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said. In March 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations in a China-brokered deal after years of tensions. 

CHINA:  In his message to Pezeshkian, President Xi Jinping said: “I attach great importance to the development of China-Iran relations and am willing to work with the President to lead the China-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership towards deeper advancement”.

IRAQ: President Abdul Latif Rashid congratulated both Iran and the president-elect, “wishing him success in his official duties and in fulfilling the ambitions and aspirations of the Iranian people”.

Sadly, it seems to be taking a lot longer for the United States or any of the other signatories of the multi-national nuclear agreement that had acted as a restraint against Iran developing a nuclear weapon to proffer their good wishes to the new leader. With the restraining pact broken by Donald Trump, Iran has moved rapidly toward a more advanced nuclear capability. The absence or delay of good wishes from the agreement's signatories will hardly go unnoticed in Teheran.

Still, as Le Monde reported, there are some hopeful signs:

Masoud Pezeshkian also appointed former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif as diplomatic adviser.

Zarif was one of the architects of the 2015 nuclear deal with the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia and China. While the "deal" has been in a comatose state since 2018 and the unilateral withdrawal of Donald Trump's United States, Masoud Pezeshkian's election gives hope for a resumption of negotiations….

The president and his team also sit on the Supreme National Security Council, which sets the broad strategic guidelines. [Supreme Leader] Ali Khamenei makes his decisions based on what is transmitted to him by this council and what his own advisers tell him.

Donald Trump’s election in Novembef, however, could well elicit an "I told you so" from the hardline right. And Iran will have been lost.

A dramatic turn for Britain

It was a sharp contrast to elections across Europe, even in France. The historic tsunami of a win by Britain's center-left Liberal Party, the melt-down by the center-right Tories, catapulted 61-year-old Keir Starmer into the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. But again, it seems to have been little more than another throw-the-bums out moment—also the worst defeat in two centuries for the Tories, at least in terms of the few seats they will take to the new parliament. But Starmer arrived at 10 Downing Street with barely a third of the overall vote.

Still, his arrival was heralded in England and around the world … though in Paris, the election did take second place on the front page of Le Monde to their own two days hence…

The paper's London correspondent Cécile Ducourtieux pointed out that the nation's new leader was truly "the artisan of the return of Labor." But the paper's lead editorial was more direct and at least to a degree a trifle self-referential:

A victory and responsibilities for the left

The large majority obtained by Keir Starmer's Labour Party in the Westminster Parliament must now be transformed into progress perceptible to the working classes, who have largely returned to Labour, but who are also courted by the extreme right.

The swing of the political pendulum towards the left in the United Kingdom may have been widely anticipated by opinion polls, but it is striking, especially when viewed from France, where the far right is on the rise on the eve of the second round of the general election. Repeating a record score equivalent to that of Tony Blair in 1997 (418 seats), Keir Starmer's Labour Party won at least 411 of the 650 seats in the Westminster Parliament….

By resolutely choosing alternation after 14 years in power of the Conservatives, the voters first punished a disastrous record marked by budgetary austerity and Brexit. A fractured, isolated and weakened country, infrastructure and public services in decline, growth in wages and investments slowed down... The ills from which the country suffers are largely the result of risky political choices.

Clearly, the continent is still smarting from the Tory-engineered "Brexit" by which Britain summarily resigned itself from the European Union and set itself adrift. But the reality is that there was just so much to take in by the social, political and economic tsunami that swept across Britain.

For not only did the electorate swing determinedly to the left, there was also a remarkable nod to the most extreme right.

Nigel Farage, the neo-Fascist flamethrower and leader of the Reform UK party, not incidentally a great chum of Donald Trump, won himself a seat in parliament for the first time (on this, his 8^th attempt). And now, three others of his party are joining him—all frightening firsts. On Truth Social, Trump congratulated an individual widely criticized for spreading "racism and divisive hate." London's Guardian published Trump's remarks:

Congratulations to Nigel Farage on his big WIN of a Parliament Seat Amid Reform UK Election Success. Nigel is a man who truly loves his Country! DJT.

With Britain's one-round, first-past-the-gate voting system, the number of seats won in parliament did seem just a trifle out of whack with the actual votes cast nationwide—not that there was still quite a clear Labor swing. With Labor appearing to get barely a third of all the votes, it won itself two-thirds the 650 seats in Parliament, amid the lowest total number of voters in decades who even bothered. The end result was not much different than what the Electoral College seems to have delivered in some recent American presidential elections—to the minority belongs the spoils.

Quickly confirmed in his new role by King Charles III at Buckingham Palace….

Starmer wasted no time getting right to work with all sorts of firsts. Rachel Reeves, a child chess champion and Bank of England economist, was named the first ever woman Chancellor of the Exchequer (America has Janet Yellin) and as deputy prime minister Angela Rayner.

Incidentally, the roundly detested former Prime Minister Liz Truss, the shortest-serving ever in that job, even lost her seat in Parliament.

Then there was one other first that the Jerusalem Post could not restrain itself from proclaiming—Friday night was quite probably the first shabbat celebration ever held in #10 Downing Street:

For the moment at least, the Labour party Keith Starmer leads may be the last real voice of reason in an increasingly fractured and fascist world. With Britain having punished the Tories for failing to make good on promises, Labour is on the line. Can it deliver?  Or in five years (or sooner) will it be throw-the-bums-out again?

Indeed, abroad, initial reactions were mixed. Lim Min Zhang, China correspondent for Singapore's Straits Times reported from Beijing:

After a historic election in the UK, a new Labour Party government is set to review London’s strategy towards China, with bilateral ties in the doldrums in recent years.

Even as China hopes that relations can advance along “the right track”, analysts have low expectations for substantive improvement as multiple contentious issues stand in the way, with Beijing viewing London as getting even closer to Washington.

China and Britain have clashed over political freedom in the former British colony of Hong Kong, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the Aukus security pact between the US, UK and Australia.

France torn apart

On Monday, we'll explore the results of Sunday's epiphanal elections in France where the far-right is teetering on the precipice of taking control of the government, or failing that, leading a parliament fractured and all but rudderless. As Le Monde's banner headline proclaimed:

“France holds its breath”

The stakes could get very high indeed. As Le Monde reported in a bulletin Saturday:

Civil servants say they are ready to disobey if the far right takes control of the country. While the RN denounces these positions, the legislation is difficult to understand, and the unions are walking on eggshells.

And as anyone who's spent any time in France knows well, it's really the bureaucrats who run this country.

Mozambique: Rinse and repeat

Meanwhile, fulfilling our pledge to cover every national election everywhere, there's the somewhat unremarkable, yet in its own way remarkable, presidential election in Mozambique. As the BBC reported:

Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani has been re-elected as head of state, winning comfortably in the first round without the need for a run-off [with] over 56% of the vote, beating six opposition candidates.

Le Monde also examined the stakes:

Ghazouani, the 67-year-old former army chief is widely credited with maintaining security in the West African state, which has largely withstood the tide of jihadism in the region and is set to become a gas producer. Unlike neighbouring Mali, the country of 4.9 million people has not experienced a jihadist attack since 2011.

Since independence, Mauritania has faced a series of coups and authoritarian regimes, with the 2019 elections marking the first transition between two elected presidents.

Coming Attraction….Wednesday!

The debut of a new page for Andelman Unleashed

Unleashed Cuisine

For our debut number: A two-part look at Medieval Cuisine …[with recipes!]

Led by Yale Professor Paul Freedman

How others see the World

Hungary makes its mark…already

It was just last Monday that Hungary and its leader, Prime Minister Viktor Orban took over as presiding officer of the Council of Europe for a six-month period as part of the regular rotation among the EU's 27 members. It's just that this moment was particularly inopportune to install Vladimir Putin's leading stalking horse in this position. And Orban lost no time making himself most useful…the news broken by Hungarian investigative reporter Szabolcs Panyi ….

As our SubStack colleagues David Carretta and Christian Spillmann, in their indispensable La Matinale Européenne, observed from their perch at European Union headquarters in Brussels:

Orban does not hide his intentions and is working with some success to paralyze unanimous decision-making….

Since the outbreak of the war, Orban has already met Putin in Beijing on October 17. This time, he will also be able to use the hat of the Hungarian EU presidency. Or rather, abuse it. According to our information, Orban did not consult or inform the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, about his visit to Moscow. The Hungarian Prime Minister's visit also surprised Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and High Representative Josep Borrell. No one was informed.

“The rotating EU presidency has no mandate to engage with Russia on behalf of the EU,” warned Council President Charles Michel. "The European Council is clear: Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is the victim. No discussion on Ukraine can take place without Ukraine." A source told us that in addition to not informing Michel about the trip, Orban's team did not respond to the European Council president's requests to clarify the contours of the possible visit to Russia. "There have been numerous attempts to contact and confirm a possible visit by Mr. Orban to Russia, but they have been unsuccessful," the source told us. "If Orban had asked, President Michel would have would have strongly advised him to avoid this visit," the source added.

Since this followed an equally unheralded visit to Kyiv to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky, the efforts were quite clear—to arrange a truce that Ukraine and the West have been quite definite in branding a move allowing Russia to replenish its forces and weapons for a new assault and effort to conquer this nation.  And incidentally, something Donald Trump has promised for his first day in office.

How others see America

Everyone's watching Joe

In the wake of the near-catastrophic debate performance two weeks ago, the world has been watching Joe Biden and holding its collective breath.

On the front page of Poland's leading daily Wyborcza was a reference to a story inside:

Old Biden, young Trump: What does the quality of old age depend on?

Inside reporter Katarzyna Staszak takes the two apart:

One takes care of his body and brain, but looks like he has Alzheimer's, the other drinks hamburgers and cola and is full of energy.

The world's most stressful job has no age limit. Maybe it should? Can someone who needs support to climb two stairs survive a night of consultation with the secret services?

[Biden] is not energetic. He moves with difficulty. He freezes in mid-sentence. In the debate with Donald Trump, he often lost the thread and mixed up the numbers . Should 81-year-old Joe Biden run for reelection? Trump, who is over three years younger…talks nonsense, but he has more energy….

Trump doesn't like vegetables, skips breakfast, and eats fast food in the evening. He drinks Diet Coke in huge quantities. But, like Biden, he doesn't drink alcohol. It is difficult to say unequivocally what is the reason for the different psychophysical fitness of the US presidential candidates.

Another Wyborcza reporter was watching Biden on ABC on Friday:

Joe Biden didn’t do badly enough to bury his candidacy in a highly anticipated interview with ABC News. But he failed to reassure doubters that he can take on Donald Trump….Some said it was a do or die situation for him amid growing calls to withdraw from the race for the White House. Biden fared better in the 23-minute conversation than he did in the duel with Trump, but not brilliantly. He avoided any major blunders, forgot something a few times, and stopped mid-sentence a few times….He didn't do badly enough to bury his candidacy, but at the same time he didn't seem to be able to reassure viewers that he was fine.

Halfway around the world, The Japan Times seemed to be preparing its readers for a next step:

And don't forget the Olympics….

In case you wondered where the Olympic flame might be, well it's getting ever closer to Paris. Here’s where Le Parisien found it on Friday:

After the North, Pas-de-Calais and Somme, the Olympic flame headed to Seine-Maritime this Friday for the 49th stage of its relay. On the program, part of the 130 km of Normandy coast after starting in Rouen in front of the largest cathedral in France.

For the rest of its journey, the Olympic flame saw one of the most beautiful panoramas atop the cliffs of Étretat. David Douillet, double gold medalist in Atlanta in 1996 and Sydney in 2000 and former Minister of Sports, had the honor of carrying the torch to the top, at the Porte d'Aval.

Finally, there’s …. Chappatte

The great Swiss cartoonist Chappatte imagines the forces holding up any sort of democratic Republic:

Patrick Chappatte, who draws under his last name, is the son of a Swiss father and Lebanese mother and was last featured in Andelman Unleashed on June 16 imagining the barbarians storming a barely-fortified palace. Born in 1967 in Karachi, Pakistan, he began working for Swiss newspapers, currently dividing his time between Geneva and Los Angeles. He draws regularly for the Geneva daily Le Temps as well as Zurich’s  Neue Zürcher Zeitung and frequently for Le Monde in Paris. In 2012 he became the first non-American to win the Thomas Nast Award of the Overseas Press Club of America. And with the Le Monde cartoonist Plantu he founded the inestimable Cartooning for Peace collective.

Here’s how Chappatte imagines himself: