American 'justice' seen from abroad ... Iran & its ayatollah still ticking ... Beware Congo's M23 ... Putin too, in spades ... and for our paid: a stolen Nazi Stradivarius + our global Cartoon gallery
Have we really seen the end….or which war would you like to fight?
The whole world is talking about the USA—and Donald Trump believes it’s with admiration. Perhaps. But then there is also at least a dollop of fear and loathing. Certainly, lots of doubts around the world if not in MagaLand itself. Many clearly view what is transpiring in Washington these days, but especially this past week, with astonishment. Imagine, with all that’s going on in the world, particularly in Europe, Le Monde would turn to America’s judicial system for its banner headline this weekend:
The Supreme Court strengthens Trump’s powers
The highest American court decided, in a ruling…to limit the ability of federal judges to block presidential decrees.
The ‘universal injunctions; issued by judges will no longer be able to have national scope and will only apply to the state where they were issued.
Donald Trump welcome a ‘gigantic victory’ and promised to implement several elements of his program that had been held back until now.
Democratic lawmakers denounce a challenge to the balance of power and a ‘terrifying step toward authoritarianism.’
But again, leave it to the paper’s editors to probe the deepest fears of many Americans and around the world:
An American presidency without counterbalance…the highest American court revisiting the institutional architecture of the United States.
This ruling reinforces [actions by] Congress, as Republican majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives have already abdicated much of their responsibilities in the face of Donald Trump….
It is unfortunate that this intention to reverse American "checks and balances," particularly those added to the institutional architecture of the United States after the excesses of the presidency of Republican Richard Nixon, coincides with the return to power of Donald Trump. From the scandalous, nonsensical challenge to the results of the 2020 presidential election to the improbable storage of classified documents in his private residence after his pitiful departure from power, Donald Trump has sufficiently displayed his contempt for norms and the law….
It is predictable, alas, that this increase in presidential power will survive the next presidential election. As long as Congress remains paralyzed by its divisions, it is unlikely that a Democratic president will voluntarily renounce these additional levers. It is therefore regrettable that a political movement officially advocating a return to "the greatness of America" is thus trampling on its institutional past. The United States has nothing to gain from this.
To trumpet this success, Trump beat an immediate path to his press briefing room to go before live cameras and the entire White House press corps.
His domestic victories and his thanks to his Supreme Court out of the way, Trump could hardly restrain himself from returning to his other successes of the week—each of which had its share of skeptics abroad as well as at home.
Foremost was “obliterating” Teheran’s capacity to develop a nuclear weapon—even its will to do so. Within Iran, however, the “successes” of the Israeli-American bombing campaign seemed to have had substantially less impact on a critical reality: the survivability or sustainability of what had been a growingly unpopular government-by-Ayatollah. Najmeh Bozorgmehr of the Financial Times went into Teheran’s streets only to find a host of views that should be most disquieting to any but the most deeply-blinkered MAGA believers….
Reza Kianian, a veteran award-winning Iranian actor, has long been a vocal domestic critic of the Islamic republic, using his popular Instagram page to question tenets of the regime’s ideology. Yet when Israel launched its deadly assault on Iran this month, Kianian swiftly joined the ranks of regime critics rallying around the flag, part of the surge of patriotic fervour that has swept the country of 90mn since the 12-day war started. “Iran has existed, exists still, and will endure,” Kianian said on Instagram after the war began.
This newfound sense of unity in the otherwise polarised country surprised observers and politicians both at home and abroad. While Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu sought to tap disillusionment by calling on people to rise up against the Islamic republic, even hardened regime opponents temporarily set aside their criticisms and recoiled against what they saw as a war against not just their rulers but Iran itself. “One person sitting outside Iran cannot tell a nation to rise up,” Kianian, 74, told the Financial Times. “Iran is my country. I will decide what to do, and won’t wait for you to tell me what to do in my own country.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised what he called the country’s “extraordinary unity”. “A nation of 90mn was united and resisted with one voice, standing shoulder to shoulder without raising their differences,” he said in a video message, which focused on Iran as a nation rather than the ruling theocracy, clearly aiming to keep Iranians united. “It became clear that in critical times, one voice is heard from the nation.”
As if any further confirmation were needed, there' was Saturday’s massive turnout for the state funerals of many killed during the Israeli wave of attacks on Iran, as reported by Britain’s Channel Four:
Does that sound like a country that’s cried uncle? Maybe not.
Beyond the immediate issue of obliteration or delay in Iran, other potential American adversaries were examining some fears that may have escaped MAGAworld. Has America’s ‘peace president’ suddenly been unmasked? A question Meredith Chen asked and answered in the South China Morning Post:
As US air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities call into question the anti-war stance of US President Donald Trump, they may also reinforce Beijing’s assumptions about the unpredictability of the US administration, according to diplomatic observers.
The attacks could bolster belief in Beijing that Washington might intervene in regional conflicts, prompting stronger strategic preparations in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
And then there was Ukraine … and NATO. More Trump triumphs? The White House certainly thought so….
Raising to 5% from 2% of GDP the contribution of each NATO member nation for defense was a major victory, without question. But will it be a pyrrhic one? Linas Kojala, a leading public figure in Lithuania, a nation as close to the front lines with Russia as any NATO member, was in The Hague for the NATO session. On Friday, he spent an hour with our paid subscribers outlining his own unique vision…
The full hour zoom of this remarkable Unleashed Conversation is below the fold for our paid subs.
Dialogue with Steve Sculley / Sirius POTUS Channel
At the same time, Andelman Unleashed spent some unbridled moments talking Europe, NATO, and inevitably Donald Trump with this inimitable Sirius host on The Briefing with Steve Sculley ….
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And then for Trump, it’s off to Africa?
Beyond power and control, with a dollop of hubris, there’s another likely motive for many of Trump’s actions: his desperate quest for the Nobel Peace Prize, awarded to his nemesis Barack Obama, but eluding him altogether…as Indian cartoonist Sajit Kumar was quick to point out…
Clearly, Trump believed a lot of ‘else’ might work. How else to explain his utterly bewildering decision to insert himself as ‘peacemaker’ into the 30-year war between two African kleptocracies—Rwanda and neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo. Why? Let Christophe Châtelot of Le Monde Afrique consider what’s involved:
No matter the subject, US President Donald Trump has little doubt or humility. Thus, on his X account, he recently estimated that the "wonderful treaty" finally signed on in Washington by the foreign ministers of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, intended to put an end to three decades of war, would be worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize…The wars in eastern DRC, having buried so many peace agreements, nevertheless call for caution.
The principle of simultaneous Rwandan withdrawal and [M23 rebel] neutralization may prove difficult to uphold. The M23 are primarily located in North Kivu [and] are therefore out of reach of the armed forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The inhabitants of the provincial [Congo] capital of North Kivu, which fell into the hands of the M23, supported by the Rwandan army, are rediscovering with concern their city under rebel control.
A bloated body floats in the waters of Lake Kivu. On his back, bare-chested, his forearms raised at right angles to the sky as if in a final silent prayer. In front of this house directly overlooking the expanse of water, four bodies have thus slowly drifted since the beginning of this day of Thursday, January 30.
Five days after the outbreak of fighting in Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu, in the far east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), how many bodies are being carried by the lake? How many are left in the northern part of the city, still considered a no-go zone where, according to various sources, soldiers of the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) and Wazalendo militiamen who were unwilling or unable to lay down their arms are entrenched, with little way out?
And then there’s today … not very much different at all. Except possibly without 4,000 Rwandan troops that are supposed to be withdrawn under the Trump truce. Perhaps … again, this weekend, in Le Monde Afrique:
M23, even without the Rwandan component, has grown considerably stronger. It has recruited, sometimes forcibly, thousands of fighters. It has worked to establish a parallel administration, especially after the capture of the two regional capitals, Goma and Bukavu, at the beginning of the year.
… or as Germany’s Deutsche Welle, with a long history there, added:
Tom Fletcher, under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief at the UN agency OCHA, told DW that in the absence of any external controls to guarantee peace on the ground, it was "very important to ensure that everyone sticks to this peace process. Life is very difficult for these communities."
Previous attempts at disarming and integrating rebel groups have delivered mixed results at best. The US-brokered deal has especially been subject to criticism for not paying close enough attention to this aspect of the conflict in the final draft of the document.
In fact, with M23 representatives walking out on previous peace talks [in March], the peace deal might come across as more of a truce. And while the agreement focuses on disarmament on the DRC side of the border, it makes no reference to Rwandan forces, which have long been suspected of participating in the conflict.
And one should never forget Russia. In a string of countries across the Sahel, Wagner mercenaries, now Russian regular forces, have been brought in by a succession of juntas. The authors of these vicious coups quite often are paying their Russian ‘protectors’ with rich natural resources. The kind of rare earths for which DRC is renowned and Donald Trump proclaimed would now be within America’s grasp, just happen to be located in the mineral-rich lands largely controlled today by M23.
And then, the most chilling….
….headline in London’s Financial Times … saying out load what so many fear (or embrace) :
Eric Trump has said that “the political path” for a family dynasty “would be an easy one”, opening the door for another Trump to seek office after his father leaves the White House.
His comments came in a wide-ranging Financial Times interview, in which the co-executive vice-president of the Trump Organization discussed his international real estate dealings, hit back at criticism that the family is seeking to profit from the presidency and echoed his father’s claims about political persecution.
“The real question is: ‘Do you want to drag other members of your family into it?’” the US president’s son said. “Would I want my kids to live the same experience over the last decade that I’ve lived? You know, if the answer was yes, I think the political path would be an easy one, meaning, I think I could do it,” he added. “And by the way, I think other members of our family could do it too.”
How others see the World
Guess who’s not coming to dinner
Vladimir Putin…at least not with other BRIC leaders who aren’t under criminal indictment and potential seizure by the International Criminal Court. Indeed, he’s not been traveling very much at all these days since 120 nations (though not the US) are ICC members. Kateryna Denisova of The Kyiv Independent reminds us of Putin’s dilemma:
Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided not to attend the upcoming BRICS summit in Brazil due to an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC), Russian president's foreign policy aide Yuriy Ushakov said on June 25.
"This is related to certain difficulties in the context of the ICC’s demands, as you know, and precisely in this context, the Brazilian government was unable to take a clear position that would allow our president to participate in this meeting," Ushakov said.
Brazil is a member of the ICC and a signatory to the Rome Statute, meaning it is obliged to arrest Putin if he enters the country. The BRICS summit, which is scheduled to take place on July 6–7, will be attended by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, according to Ushakov. Putin is expected to participate remotely via video.
The ICC issued a warrant for the Russian leader's arrest in March 2023 over the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In November 2024, Putin skipped the G20 summit in Brazil and sent Lavrov instead.
Earlier in June, Moscow said Putin had received an official invitation to attend the G20 summit in South Africa, another ICC member state. The event is scheduled to take place in Johannesburg from Nov. 22 to 23.
In September 2024, Putin made a rare visit to Mongolia, which is also a signatory of the ICC, prompting criticism over the non-enforcement of the warrant.
Still, like his friend Trump, Putin has his own talent for spin. As the Institute for the Study of War reported:
The Kremlin continues to downplay the social and economic costs of Russia's war in Ukraine and inflated military spending. Putin told journalists on June 27, following the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) summit in Minsk, that sanctions cannot hurt Russia’s economy and that Russia's economic indicators are “satisfactory.” Putin acknowledged that Russia’s economy is still contending with high inflation and that Russia’s economic growth in 2025 will be “much more modest to combat inflation.” Putin also claimed that Russia’s military budget is currently 6.3% of its GDP, or 13.5 trillion rubles (roughly $172 billion), and Russia plans to steadily decrease defense spending beginning in 2026. Russia notably increased its defense budget by 25% percent between 2024 and 2025 and has been increasing its investments in Russia's defense industry throughout 2025.
[Remember, NATO just agreed to up its target from 2% to 5% of GDP for its member nations.]
Russian officials previously claimed that the 2025-2027 federal budgets would prioritize civilian and social sector investments, despite the September 2024 draft budgets indicating Russia will spend roughly 41% of its annual expenditures in 2025 on national security and defense.
The Russian Finance Ministry more than tripled its budget deficit target for 2025 after several months of staggeringly low oil and gas profits. Russian Central Bank Chairperson Elvira Nabiullina stated at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) that Russia has exhausted many of its “free resources“ since the start of Russia‘s full-scale war against Ukraine, including Russia’s workforce, production and import substitution capacities, and reserves of the National Welfare Fund and Russia’s banking sector. Russia’s military force generation strategy currently hinges on large recruitment and pension payouts, and it remains unclear how the Kremlin intends to fund these payments in the medium- to long-term, as Russia reportedly depleted the entire 2025 federal recruitment budget fund between January and March 2025. Russia is also making significant financial investments in its domestic drone production capacity and committed 243 billion rubles (about $3 billion) to Russian drone companies between 2023 and 2024. Any sharp decrease in Russia's defense spending will likely depress the Russian economy in the medium term, as Russia’s defense industrial base now accounts for a significant portion of overall Russian domestic production.
In the end, it’s likely all to boil down to which side has the longer staying power before utter collapse.
Now, back to Iran ….
Donald Trump could barely contain himself on any number of occasions this week in the face of media he believed was belittling his accomplishment of winning a war for Israel over Iran: “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing. Do you understand that?”
Well, not really. As Piotr Smolar wrote for Le Monde from Washington even before the B-2 attack:
Israel-Iran: Donald Trump congratulates himself for having won a cease-fire that’s still very uncertain
And then the Institute for the Study of War weighed in…one hand giveth, the other taketh away:
US and Israeli strikes severely set back Iran’s enrichment capabilities, but Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile poses a long-term threat. The United States dropped twelve 30,000lb GBU-57 bunker buster bombs on Fordow, directly targeted points above the centrifuge cascade hall, and likely destroyed all six IR-1 and seven IR-6 cascades that produced nearly 90% of Iran’s 60% enriched uranium as of the last IAEA reporting period. IAEA Director Rafael Grossi confirmed on June 26 that the Fordow centrifuges are “no longer working” and emphasized that small vibrations can destroy them. The Institute for Science and International Security assessed that the twelve 30,000lb GBU-57s—over 180 tons of bombs—detonated inside the facility after traveling through the Fordow ventilation shafts. These bombs would have generated a blast wave far more significant than small vibrations.
Iranian enriched uranium stockpiles could pose a threat if Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program over the following years….Two officials told the Financial Times on June 26 that Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile “remains largely intact” following the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, citing “preliminary intelligence assessments provided to European governments.” The Institute for Science and International Security also noted that Iran still retains stockpiles of 3% to 5%, 20%, and 60% enriched uranium, which Iran would need to enrich further to weapons-grade (90% enrichment)….The destruction of so many centrifuges between June 12 and 24 will still make enriching from 60% to 90% much slower. US and Israeli airstrikes on Fordow and other enrichment facilities could have buried enriched uranium underground, which would limit access to the material, but could not have destroyed the material. Conventional explosives cannot destroy enriched uranium.
The degradation of Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities will temporarily prevent Iran from enriching to 90% weapons-grade uranium, though Iran could enrich to weapons-grade if it can install surviving centrifuges at a new facility. Iran could attempt to build a simple gun-type nuclear bomb, which is similar to the US atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. A gun-type weapon would need at least 25kg of 90% enriched uranium. Iran would only be able to deliver such a weapon using an aircraft or other, more rudimentary delivery weapon.
Still, by no means an insuperable obstacle for those most motivated. And Iran would appear to be quite motivated indeed.
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