TWTW: The World This Week #140

Trump's 100 days & dangers ahead ... Rendezvous @ St. Peter's ... Elections: Canada & now Britain?... Wars now & beyond: Iran / Israel-Gaza... For our paid: Movie night in Moscow & our Cartoon gallery

In this weekly feature for Andelman Unleashed, we continue to explore how the media of other nations are reporting and commenting on the United States, and how they are viewing the rest of the world.

To emphasize, we cover lots of ground….So, you may not want to read it all, but it's all here for you!

How others see America

The world recognizes the dangers….

Even if Americans haven’t recognized the dangers, the world—with a single-minded fixation on America and its leadership—is rapidly coming to realize there is so much more damage on the hardly distant horizon as the Trump presidency heads to its 100-day anniversary on Wednesday. But leave it to Le Monde to headline a danger that few even in America appear to have recognized on the very near horizon, as Julien Bouissou reported:

The IMF and the World Bank are also facing the Trump storm

The two pillars of the post-war economic system are holding their first meetings since the return to power of the American president, who has called for a review, by August, of all US participation in multilateral institutions.

The IMF must cope with the new US administration's challenge to multilateral institutions, while maintaining fragile international cooperation, in the midst of a trade war between Beijing and Washington, while Trump's protectionist offensive will slow global growth in 2025 to 2.8%, a forecast lowered by 0.5 percentage points compared to January….

The IMF, whose primary mission is to ensure the stability of the international financial system, uses its $1 trillion (€872 billion) in reserves to help struggling countries like Egypt, Pakistan, and Argentina by providing emergency loans, often in exchange for reforms such as reducing their budget deficits. It also plays a central role in restructuring the debt of poor countries.

With 16.1% of the voting rights, which gives it a de facto veto over important decisions, compared to 6.1% for China, the United States has an influence on the institution that far exceeds its global economic weight….US withdrawal would allow China, which is positioning itself as the new guardian of a rules-based global economic order, to play a leading role in the institution.

At the same time, the Zurich daily Neue Zürcher Zeitung sent a reporter/photographer team deep into Trump country in Youngstown, Ohio, where Christian Weisflog and Nate Smallwood found:

Kristina Mariotti is here to enjoy a drink with her friends. She's a Democrat who voted for Joe Biden four years ago, says the mother of two. Last November, however, she voted for Donald Trump. She was dissatisfied with the Democrats' loose immigration policy: «I'm all for people coming to our country the proper way. I mean, this is the land of the free. But letting droves and droves of people in without their credentials. . .»

One can only wonder what credentials her ancestors brought with them to America?

Above all, however, the 53-year-old trusts Trump's business acumen: «You have to run the government like a business. And I think he's doing that for us.» Mariotti thinks that Trump is bold and tells it like it really is: «Like he did with the Ukrainian president. He doesn't sugarcoat anything.» According to her, the Democrats have been recklessly spending taxpayers' money: «We have lost billions of dollars while there is great poverty in all of our communities.» Mariotti is paying increasingly more for her health insurance, while the benefits are getting worse and worse, she tells us.

That is why Mariotti is hopeful for Trump's tariff increases: «It's going to be hard in the beginning because everything has to change.» Americans buy half their products from China, she says. «But the tariffs will help in the long run,» she believes. When asked how long she is prepared to suffer for this, Mariotti responds: «Probably my whole life, as long as my children and grandchildren benefit from it.»

As it happens, the same day (Wednesday) we'll all be facing 100 Days of Trump, (January 20 to April 30), Vietnam will be marking the 50^th anniversary of that tumultuous moment om 1975 when Americans were forced out of Saigon (now Ho Chi Minh City) and that country was able to begin its surge to the major regional powerhouse it is today, finding perhaps some hope somewhere in the Trump typhoon that threatens its prosperity as well.

A graphic published by The Economist says it all:

Indeed, Trump's rule-by-edict has added up to more executive orders in 100 days than Presidents Biden and Obama, plus himself in his first term combined. The Economist then goes on to point out that at least 37 have been taken to court, with a mixed record: 23 (temporarily) blocked, 13 (temporarily) allowed, just 1 ruled legal back on February 12 (offering federal workers “deferred resignation”), but only because the union that brought that suit "lacked standing" to sue.

The magazine then goes on to highlight Trump's other mode of attack: governing by tweet…..

And The Economist goes on to note:

If he keeps it up, his total oeuvre as president will surpass Marcel Proust’s 1.3m-word “Remembrance of Things Past” in early 2028.

Then magazine's sad conclusion:

No doubt who's on the world's mind

Donald Trump, of course …. Just as one example, what we woke up to one morning this week: four of the five lead stories in Britain’s Financial Times….hint: all about disruption:

And then, the outright lies? Gotcha….

As Ji Siqi in Beijing and Alice Lin in Hong Kong reported for the South China Morning Post:

China denied it has made any overtures to the United States on trade negotiations, dismissing claims of progress on bilateral talks as “fake news” despite an apparent softening by US President Donald Trump on the hefty tariffs he has imposed since returning to office in January.

When asked if the US and China have started trade negotiations—a question prompted by assertions from Trump that Washington has been in contact with officials from Beijing—Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun said, “all of this is fake news.”

The Ministry of Commerce echoed the sentiment. “If the US truly wants to resolve the issue, it should heed rational voices from the international community and domestic stakeholders, completely abolish all unilateral tariffs on China, and find a solution through equal dialogue,” said ministry spokesman He Yadong.

The next day, at an even higher level, Chinese officials were even more direct:

China’s central bank governor and finance minister—its top financial and economic officials—condemned the trade war at a Group of 20 ministers meeting in Washington, concluding the tour without official bilateral dialogue with their US counterparts.

“There are no winners in trade wars or tariff wars, and major economies should enhance their participation in international macroeconomic and financial policy coordination,” said Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People’s Bank of China.

Fear of leaving?

Politico Europe expressed a fear of what it sees as a TrumpWorld probability:

The countdown has started.

During his first trip to Europe in February, United States Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth warned that the American military presence in Europe was "not forever," sending shockwaves through the continent's capitals.

Since then, U.S. and European officials have denied over and over again that the U.S. commitment to NATO under President Donald Trump is wobbling and that Washington is mulling withdrawing troops — but few doubt the moment will eventually come…

According to analysts and current and former U.S. military officers, withdrawing — or even reducing — American troop numbers in Europe would significantly reduce deterrence against Russia and cost money to both Europeans and Americans. A report from Germany’s Economic Institute (IW Cologne) warned this week that it could take 10 to 12 years for Europe to replace key U.S. military capabilities…

But then again, there's that burning question of perpetual fear: a Russian behemoth rolling roughshod across Western Europe, creating what Hitler lusted after and never achieved, much less Stalin or his successors—namely a single, autocratic ruler from the Atlantic across the Urals to the Pacific. Is that fear at all real these days?

Giles Merritt, founder of the think tank Friends of Europe and earlier, longtime Brussels correspondent for the Financial Times told our Unleashed Conversation on Friday:

I see America separating itself from the multi-national system. If Trump isn't stopped, I think he's going to destroy the basis of American power which was being so deeply embedded in the way the world is run. From the Bretton Woods institutions of 1944 onwards, America has been the cornerstone of global development, and now Trump is talking about backing out of the IMF and the World Bank. He almost destroyed the World Trade Organization. He is trying to destroy or setting about the right way of destroying the dollar's I think challengeable position as the global reserve currency. He's doing everything that the Chinese hoped for.

But doing, then, precisely what Putin is looking for….should Europe not be very afraid?

I think Putin is a has-been. I really can't take him seriously. Putin couldn't even win a war against a smaller neighbor. He certainly is no position to invade anybody else in Europe. It's a red herring. If he encourages European defense thinking, that's fine. We tried to encourage them to develop an industrial base after the wall came down. They wouldn't do it. The oligarchs were too crazy and lazy. So, as far as I'm concerned, Russia—it's a one trick pony and Putin's one trick is oil and gas. And well, sure you can live on oil and gas for a while, but you're not a global player even in a country that stretches all the way around the world.

The full zoom of Giles Merritt’s dialogue with our Unleashed Conversation attendees is below the fold for all our paid subscribers.

Meanwhile, stage right….

The world, but especially its leaders, showed up for the funeral of Pope Francis Saturday morning. But much of the world's eyes were on Donald Trump, especially for his one-on-one meeting right after the funeral with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky—the first since that catastrophe in the ova. But watch, in this 20 second BBC clip, who appears stage-right….and then that body language in the one-on-one.

That's right, it's France's own Emmanuel Macron. Wouldn't you love to know what they said in the 10 seconds before Zelensky and Trump sat down and Zelensky, when body language suggests was selling his little heart out. From Macron, a warm clap on the shoulder for Zelensky, avoiding any handshake with Trump, who’d just a had a third chair (for Macron?) removed from their huddle. How closely was Trump paying attention to all this kabuki? Well, a second meeting with Zelensky after the funeral never materialized. Trump wanted to make it back to his golf club in Bedminister, NJ, by sundown.

Lip readers anyone? If any of our subscribers has a thought….don’t hesitate to put it here!

Incidentally, stay tuned in 10 days for my inside look at the Vatican conclave when cardinals chose John Paul II as the world's first Polish pope…a new Unleashed Memoir episode.

Special for the Paid !

Andelman Unleashed has unleashed new, (lightly) paid tiers. For new paid yearly subscribers, an inscribed copy of my latest book, A Red Line in the Sand

Along with a weekly portfolio of cartoons, largely from Cartooning for Peace … and Friday a weekly live conversation with Andelman.

THIS FRIDAY, WE'LL HAVE A SPECIAL GUEST….

David K. Shipler

David reported for The New York Times from 1966 to 1988, serving as a correspondent in Saigon, then as bureau chief in Moscow and Jerusalem, finally as chief diplomatic correspondent in Washington. He's written seven books, including one anthology of his poetry, and another, Arab and Jew: Wounded Spirits in a Promised Land, that won the 1987 Pulitzer Prize for general nonfiction. His first novel, The Interpreter, was published April 15—an eye-opening return to a very special moment in Saigon a half century ago.

Today, he writes online at The Shipler Report: A Journal of Fact & Opinion….a SubStack-like space with the DNA of Daniel Patrick Moynihan's observation: "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts."

So do sign up & get the zoom link to Andelman Unleashed Conversation … cheaper than a monthly mocha grande. This will also help us support great journalism across the globe.

Elections 2025: O Canada….Britain (again?!)

The race tightens…

Scary times north of the border. On Monday, Canadian voters will go to the polls for perhaps the most consequential election in the lifetimes of most of them. As Shannon Proudfoot put it in Toronto's Globe & Mail:

The Ottawa bureau chief for the Toronto Star, Tonda MacCharles put it this way:

Election 2025 is the campaign that fun forgot. Where the winner might just be the most boring. Where the music has been forgettable. Where no snappy leaders’ debate exchange and no political ad truly captured the zeitgeist.

It’s a campaign that saw Liberals and Conservatives flip their hope and fear scripts, that ends with New Democrats and the separatist Bloc Québécois fighting for relevance, and reveals a Canadian electorate sharply divided, but seemingly less polarized than during the 2021 pandemic campaign. That vote saw rock-throwing and visceral anti-establishment eruptions against candidates.

In this campaign, there is unity of purpose vis-à-vis the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump. The collective goal is to survive the next four years.

But right now, the latest polls show close to a dead heat as the BBC observes:

It has been a stunning reversal of fortunes. Seemingly dead and buried, the Liberals now believe they could win a fourth successive election, and even a majority in Parliament [over the once surging Conservatives].

Stand by….Andelman Unleashed will be back with an Unleashed Elections Extra on Tuesday with results…and consequences.

Britain agonistes?

No fear, Keir Starmer is still very much Britain's (very liberal) Prime Minister. Still The Economist Editor-in-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes has taken out her crystal ball. Ulp:

In Britain we zoom in on Nigel Farage, who is once again upending politics, with grave implications for Britain and its role in Europe. That is because his second act threatens to be more audacious than his first: the pursuit not of Brexit, but of power. Mr Farage’s party, Reform UK, is neck-and-neck in the polls with Labour and the Conservatives. Of the two major parties, Labour is in a stronger position. For as long as the vote on the right is split, it may find that power comes its way more easily. But voters will eventually tire of Sir Keir Starmer and his uninspiring record, possibly as soon as the next election. And that could be Mr Farage’s moment.

How's this? An extreme right party in a potentially pole position? Beddoes explains:

In (local) council elections in England on May 1^st, Reform UK, the party led by the architect of Brexit, Nigel Farage, is poised to inflict heavy losses on the Conservatives. The idea that national office is within Mr Farage’s grasp probably sounds fantastical. Britain has a Labour government with a supersize majority; Mr Farage took eight attempts to enter Parliament and he now leads a faction of just four MPs, having fallen out with the fifth. Many of his views are unpopular, notably his excuse-making for Vladimir Putin.

A personal belief: Brits, with a shared language and culture with America, more than any other inside or just outside Europe, will be keeping a very close eye on how a Farage clone named Trump is managing in America. And for him, the portents seem hardly auspicious.

How others view the World

On war fronts (actual or potential)

Iran

The Institute for the Study of War wrote:

Iran reportedly asked the United States during nuclear talks in Rome on April 19 to negotiate an interim deal, which is consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Iran may calculate an interim deal would delay or prevent snapback sanctions or a strike….Iran said it may not be possible to reach a final deal by US President Donald Trump's proposed 60-day deadline. Trump reportedly set a 60-day deadline to reach a new nuclear agreement and previously warned that ‘there will be a bombing’ if Iran does not agree to a new nuclear deal. US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff reportedly told Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi that he wants to focus on reaching a comprehensive deal within 60 days, but the two parties could reach an interim deal if both sides agree they need more time….Iran agreed to yield its 20% enriched uranium stockpile, refrain from operating any inactive centrifuges, halt the production and installation of new centrifuges, cease construction of the Arak heavy water reactor, and accept new International Atomic Energy Agency oversight measures. It is unclear what concessions Iran would be willing to make for an interim deal in the current nuclear negotiations.

Israel/Gaza:

Haaretz's Sheren Falh Saab points out a degree of hopelessness has set in:

"It's very hard—so hard that I can't concentrate," says H., a journalist from the Gaza Strip describing his efforts to cope with the shortage of food and clean water. He sounds exhausted.

"I feel weak," he says. "I eat one date at 1 P.M. and another at 6. It's been like that for three weeks now. The rice at home is almost gone, and there's no flour. The only thing I'm thinking about is how to feed my kids in the next few days."

The food shortage is the biggest challenge for most Gazans now. Eight weeks have passed since Israel stopped allowing aid into the Strip, and experts are warning of a sudden and rapid decline in health due to the shortages of food, clean water and medicine.

What’s new on ‘paid’?

And now, for our most highly valued, but lightly paid members, we'll conclude with a first look at what's popular for Russian movie-goers. A hint: NOT Hollywood.… Not to mention a link to the Unleashed Conversation zoom from last Friday. And we'll wind up with a bonus gallery from cartoonists around the world riffing on the Pope, Trump and tutti quanti.