TWTW: The World This Week #126
Trump: an interregnum? Who's coming to the Capitol? ...Zelensky's tough message ... Joy in Israel, to a point ... Murder in Tehran ... China's monster ship...for our paid: no sex & Cartoonists quit X!
In this weekly feature for Andelman Unleashed, we continue to explore how the media of other nations are reporting and commenting on the United States, and how they are viewing the rest of the world.
To emphasize, we cover lots of ground….So, you may not want to read it all, but it's all here for you!
If your preferred delivery is audio, we’ve debuted, for our (lightly) paid members, a new Unleashed Audio version read by the author with a link below the fold!
How others see America
Who's the interregnum now?
Friday morning, José Ángel Abad, US correspondent for Spain's Antena 3 network, stopped by to ask our thoughts about what's likely in store for Spain, and by extension Europe, during the second term of Donald Trump. I told him the story about a senior Spanish diplomat to whom, four years ago this weekend, I breathed a sigh of relief that order had been restored from chaos and that reason had returned to America with Donald Trump merely an unfortunate interregnum.
"My fear," the diplomat smiled thinly, "is that Joe Biden will turn out to have been the interregnum." How prophetic.
Yet this time around, such chaos, such indecision prevails on every continent—especially over just what Donald Trump's world view might be. In the end, I am persuaded that if America's renewed president has any single perspective it is simply whatever works to cement or increase his own personal power. Just what that will translate into, even such a discerning and imaginative a media colossus as The Economist could not resist toying with six potential covers for their issue this week….
Each speaks volumes, though as deputy editor Edward Carr observed:
Every week our designers bring The Economist’s lead editorial to life.
So, this week, its lead editorial begins:
Donald Trump's critics have often accused him of buffoonery and isolationism. Yet even before taking office on January 20th he has shown how much those words fall short of what his second term is likely to bring. As the inauguration approaches, he has helped secure a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza. Busting taboos, he has bid for control over Greenland, with its minerals and strategic position in the Arctic. Mr Trump’s second term will not only be more disruptive than his first; it will also supplant a vision of foreign policy that has dominated America since the second world war.
For decades American leaders have argued that their power comes with the responsibility to be the indispensable defender of a world made more stable and benign by democracy, settled borders and universal values. Mr Trump will ditch the values and focus on amassing and exploiting power. His approach will be tested and defined in three conflicts: the Middle East, Ukraine and America’s cold war with China. Each shows how Mr Trump is impelled to break with recent decades: in his unorthodox methods, his accumulation and opportunistic use of influence, and his belief that power alone creates peace.
More broadly, the initial focus is likely to be heavily on Europe, whose leader happens to be just emerging from a major bout with pneumonia, but with a whole lot on her mind, as our colleagues at La Matinale Européenne point out:
Ursula von der Leyen will be forced to speak out on the strategy she intends to follow with the American president….The Commission President has one priority: avoiding a trade war with the United States by offering Trump a "deal."
"It is imperative to avoid a trade war in the coming months with the new Trump administration," Stéphane Séjourné, the Commission's vice-president for prosperity and industrial strategy, told us. "Neither the Americans nor the Europeans have any interest in this." According to the French commissioner…"her mission will be to maintain the unity of the 27."
"The risk is that everyone will rush to Washington to defend their small sector against their neighbour, whereas with 27, we have much more strength and the possibility of avoiding a trade war," Séjourné told us.
The Commission has prepared both defensive and offensive tools. Among the defensive tools are the incentives to offer Trump to conclude a "deal". First of all, the purchase of liquefied natural gas or other products that Europe lacks, to convince him not to impose tariffs in certain sectors. One of the big questions is whether to also increase arms purchases from the United States, while the EU seeks to strengthen its defense industry. This is in fact a necessity, given that current production capacity is limited…."Buy European" is a demand formulated by France. Germany, Poland, and a majority of Member States are opposed to it.
Among the offensive tools prepared by the Commission are trade retaliations if Trump decides to follow through on his promises to impose 20% tariffs on all imports. Von der Leyen’s executive has long been preparing for this scenario….
A grand exchange on security and Ukraine could be a “win-win”. European sovereignty would be put at the service of an agreement with Trump. The American president could claim to have forced the Europeans to take care of their security and to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. But serious doubts remain about the feasibility, both politically and fiscally. For a common defence policy, a single foreign policy is needed, which is impossible to achieve with the Hungarian Viktor Orban and the Slovak Robert Fico today, or with the Austrian Herbert Kickl tomorrow.
Or, for that matter Germany's far right AfD party, as Unleashed reported last week, now under the protective wing of Trump acolyte Elon Musk.
Indeed La Matinale Européenne highlighted:
None of these issues, but especially a trade war, is also hardly off the radar for Asia, as Nikkei Asia observed when setting out:
Trump's Day One: Things for Asia to watch
[His] to-do list could have serious implications for Asia, including tariff hikes and immigration restrictions…in a bid to stop the flow of undocumented immigrants and illicit drugs, including fentanyl, into the U.S., while also establishing a new government agency to collect foreign revenue.
Such tariffs would likely mean higher prices for American consumers already hit by inflation, and could weigh on Asia's largest economy. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump spoke ahead of Trump's inauguration, with Xi saying that trade relations should be based on mutual benefit and not on conflict.U.S. importers have laced larger-than-usual orders from Chinese manufacturers since Trump's victory last November, in a bid to hoard goods that could face higher tariffs.
Trump in 2019 invoked the International Economic Emergency Powers Act of 1977 to threaten new tariffs on Mexico. U.S.-China hawks have also discussed revoking China's permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status, which would put China into the same trade category as countries like Russia, North Korea, Cuba and Belarus. That would severely impact trade and inject more economic uncertainty.
Immigration will be a central focus for Trump's first day….A sharp increase of undocumented Chinese immigrants, many middle-class people disillusioned by the economic slowdown back home, with some 10% of 11.3 million unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. in mid-2022 came from Asia, mostly from India, the Philippines and China.
Trump's team has been preparing to deport undocumented immigrants from China who are of military age.
But guess who’s coming to the Capitol
As France's Le Monde put it:
For the first time in US history, President-elect Donald Trump has chosen to expand the circle of guests at his inauguration ceremony on January 20 to include foreign political figures to celebrate his second coming to power. The cream of nationalist reactionaries from around the world will therefore flock to Washington for this event financed by millions of dollars from American tech. On the list of less than a thousand guests, the young, tough president of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, the self-proclaimed "cool dictator" of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, Argentina’s Javier Milei, and the very right-wing Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni.
On the French far right, Sarah Knafo, a European MP from the Reconquête! party, and its president, Eric Zemmour [who polled] 7% in the 2022 presidential election, were preferred to the powerful leaders of the National Rally (RN) Marine Le Pen….[41.5% in the same presidential contest].
Or as Le Monde's Sylvie Kauffmann elaborated in her column:
"Trump's inauguration ceremony risks resembling an informal summit of the 'reactionary international'
What do Keir Starmer, Olaf Scholz, Mette Frederiksen and Justin Trudeau, the heads of government of the UK, Germany, Denmark and Canada, have in common? They are all social democrats or centre-left. And they have all been the target of attacks by Donald Trump or Elon Musk in the last two weeks.
Another characteristic they share: they are not invited to President Trump's inauguration ceremony on Monday….
The “reactionary international” is taking shape—a chaotic shape, like the world. Javier Milei, a libertarian who boasts of having “infinite contempt for the state” and whom Trump says is his “favorite president,” was the first to announce his presence at the inauguration ceremony. He will be in good company: no official list of foreign guests has yet been published, but each new name that circulates enriches an ever-growing list of the heads of populist movements on the planet.
There is El Salvador’s Bukele, icon of the global far right, who has more followers on X (7.1 million) than El Salvador has citizens (6.3 million). This self-proclaimed "philosopher king" has rid his country of out-of-control crime by throwing more than 80,000 persons in prison. Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro would very much like to honor his invitation to the Capitol, but he is not sure he will be able to get his passport back, which the courts deprived him of because of an attempted coup….
A bewildered Europe is realizing that Trump II is indeed likely to be much worse than Trump I.
Indeed, a very much bewildered world.
How others view the World
Donald Trump is inheriting several real crises that seem even further from any denouement….bon courage!
Zelensky to Europe … you are nothing without us
Europe will not defend itself without the Ukrainian army. That's the word from Zelensky to a very nervous and receptive audience—in neighboring NATO member Poland. You have no chance without us, as he told four leading Polish media—Onet, TVN24, Rzeczpospolita, and Krytyka Polityczna. While it seemed they were supposed to take this as a message to Poland's Prime minister Donald Tusk, or beyond that to a very much divided European Union, really Zelensky was addressing an audience of one, across the Atlantic ….
We will react harshly if someone negotiates with Russia behind our backs. Any agreements with the Russians cannot take place without Ukraine. And that is why Ukraine should react very sharply if some country conducts negotiations with Russia behind our backs.
We certainly believe that war cannot be ended without diplomacy. Fewer people will suffer, less of everything will be lost this way. If we stop this diabolical history in this way, even if the other side does not want peace, then peace can be won by force, this is what happens when partners unite and use force to force the other side to start a dialogue….
What should happen before we start any negotiations? Ukraine should receive security guarantees. This is number one and this is what everyone needs, including you. Everyone has already understood that Russia is an enemy and that it can attack any European country. They have a lot of strength for this and unfortunately this is their desire. Putin must be prevented from doing this….
If we don't have NATO, there's no support, there's no air defense, there's no fleet, then we have to count only on ourselves. And we know what it means to count only on ourselves. What army in Europe is currently bigger than the Ukrainian one? None. And that's our advantage, but a very expensive advantage….
Trump really wants to end the war. These are his claims, both public and non-public. And he is able to press, influence Russia. I am sure that Russia is afraid of the United States, afraid of China and afraid of a united Europe. Europe without the Ukrainian army will not cope with the Russian army, because it is larger in terms of numbers. Russia has more weapons, more people and is more cruel than the Europeans.
Europe is a different civilization….Without the Ukrainian army, Europe unfortunately has no chance against Russia today. Putin knows this and talks about it in his circle. Therefore, if Ukraine does not defend itself, he will quickly move on. This is a fact. I am absolutely convinced of this.
So, when you ask if we can have a ceasefire this year, I say we have to do everything we can to achieve that. But the European Union has to be three times more pragmatic and has to increase production [of weapons] three times. You have to produce to help Ukraine, but you have to produce more for yourselves, so that the Russians know that Europe is producing more, that Europe will be able to stand up to them. You have to get ahead of Putin.
Meanwhile, others continue to put Putin on notice. Caliber.az reported from Azerbaijan on a confirmation of joint exercises between NATO and Georgia, which cannot send any thrills of joy up the spine of Vladimir Putin who has hardly shed his aspirations of returning that nation to the post-Soviet Russian fold….
The NATO-Georgia 2025 military exercises will commence on April 28 at the Krtsanisi base within the NATO-Georgia Joint Training and Evaluation Centre.
Participating countries that have confirmed their involvement include Azerbaijan, Albania, Bulgaria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Türkiye, and the United States. Armenia will take part as an observer.
The exercise is expected to enhance military cooperation, operational readiness, and interoperability between NATO forces and Georgian troops, as well as other partner nations. The Italian Embassy in Georgia also confirmed that this will mark another milestone in the growing military collaboration between Georgia and NATO.
Joy in Israel…up to a point
Trump promised an Armageddon of some ill-defined variety if the Israeli and American hostages weren't returned by Hamas by the time of his inauguration. Well, that's tomorrow (Monday), so today's release of a trio of women hostages was but a thin trickle. Still, as Haaretz reported, they were no less joyfully received….
On the other side, there was equal joy as a cease-fire appeared to settle into place, 90 prisoners were release from Israeli captivity, and Palestinians began returning to their homes….as Haaretz continued:
Despite more deaths in IDF strikes before the delayed cease-fire took effect, the mood in Gaza is festive, as crowds danced and distributed sweets; some called for unity to 'rebuild Gaza,' while others praised what they called the victory of Hamas: 'Hamas remains, and Gaza has triumphed'.
Then again, Haaretz's Amir Tibon understands the real stakes…
With the cease-fire deal: Netanyahu hopes Hamas will rescue him from his own web of lies.
If Donald Trump wants to stop Benjamin Netanyahu from derailing the hostage and cease-fire deal, a confrontation with the Israeli prime minister may be unavoidable.
Most Israelis, as they watch this circus in disbelief, are imagining the pain and fear experienced by the hostage families. But in Jerusalem, Netanyahu seems to be focused on something else: his own political survival.
And then there's Iran ….
….where unrest appears to be only continuing. As Tasmin News reported from Tehran:
A shooting incident occurred in the Tehran Palace of Justice Saturday, in which Judge Hojjatoleslam Moghiseh and Judge Hojjatoleslam Razini were martyred…[e.g. assassinated]
One of the branch chief's bodyguards was also injured in the incident.
Judiciary spokesman Asghar Jahangir said: "The gunman left the branch immediately after committing this terrorist act and committed suicide while fleeing; therefore, no new information about his motive can be provided at this time."
It is worth noting that over the past year, extensive measures have been taken by the judiciary to identify, prosecute, arrest, and prosecute agents and elements affiliated with the infamous Zionist regime and American agents, spies, and terrorist groups.
The Judiciary Spokesperson reminds that these two martyrs, due to the important responsibilities they had in the Judiciary for many years, were the source of their meritorious services, and handled important cases related to security issues. They were always the object of hatred and grudges from the enemies of Islam and the system.
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And then there's the China monster ship ….
Two weeks ago, our paid subscribers had a look at the Goliath in Andelman Unleashed. Now China's monster Coast Guard ship—the world's largest—is moving into action, in Philippine waters….and no one's very happy about that, as the Manila Times reported:
Security concerns escalated sharply as China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel 5901, referred to as the "Monster" ship, ventured into waters 60 nautical miles off the coast of Zambales, well within the Philippine exclusive economic zone.
The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), which has been monitoring the activities of the 165-meter-long ship for the past two weeks, described the vessel's presence as unauthorized and a blatant violation of international maritime law.
Despite multiple radio challenges issued by the PCG's flagship vessel, the Chinese vessel failed to comply.
The CCG 5901's presence is part of a broader trend of heightened Chinese activity in the South China Sea. Reports indicate that the vessel has been operating unlawfully within 60 to 70 nautical miles of the Philippine coastline since early January, with two additional Chinese coast guard vessels also observed near the disputed Scarborough Shoal.
Further complicating the situation, the Indian Coast Guard Ship Shaunak, returning from a goodwill mission to Japan, faced surveillance from Chinese vessels while navigating waters west of Scarborough Shoal. The Indian ship's passage highlighted the increasingly contentious nature of the region, which China claims as part of its territory despite overlapping claims by the Philippines and an arbitral court that decided the Chinese claims have no legal basis.
What’s new on ‘paid’
And now, for our most highly valued, but lightly paid members, we'll conclude with a look at morality—pre-marital sex between consenting adults—and how the whole idea is a hotbed in Asia, particularly India and the Philippines.
And we'll wind up with our great partner Cartooning for Peace leaving X and embracing HelloQuitteX with ruffles and flourishes…."Free our Online Spaces!"
….plus our regular bonus gallery from cartoonists around the world on events today and the Transition to Trump….
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