TWTW: The World This Week #122

Trumproofing the World … and then there's Elon …. Russia's scramble out of Syria, with gestures from America…and for our paid subs: the mighty durian & year in cartoons...plus Unleashed Audio

In this weekly feature for Andelman Unleashed, we continue to explore how the media of other nations are reporting and commenting on the United States, and how they are viewing the rest of the world. Again, back in America!

To emphasize, we cover lots of ground….You may not want to read it all, but it's all here for you!

If your preferred delivery is audio, we are debuting, for our (lightly) paid members, a new Unleashed Audio version read by the author with a link below the fold!

Trumproofing the World

America has passed the one-month mark before the Second Trump Era begins and the world is now truly beginning to focus on the implications.

High on everyone's agenda is Trump's pledge (or threat?) to end the war in Ukraine in his first 24 hours in office, which as our SubStack colleagues at La Matinale Européenne pointed out, "even he [may] now recognize that achieving this in 24 hours is a bit presumptuous." Hence, emergency measures may well be in order:

A restricted meeting….in Brussels with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The host is NATO boss Mark Rutte of the Netherlands, but the invitation is to his residence, not to the Alliance headquarters. The requester is Zelensky, panicked by the pressure to make him accept a ceasefire.

The guests announced are Emmanuel Macron of France, Donald Tusk of Poland, Giorgia Meloni of Italy, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, President of the European Council Antonio Costa and a representative of the British government. Donald Trump's announced abandonment of Ukraine requires urgent decisions, and the Union is seeking to mobilize those of its "capable" and "willing" members to create the conditions for a balance of power favorable to Ukraine with a view to peace negotiations and to ensure "the day after" security guarantees.

Why hold a restricted meeting at Rutte's? Because of Victor Orban. The Hungarian has become "Putin's man" in the European Council. It is impossible to deal with such a sensitive subject in his presence. The other reason is that without the British, nothing becomes possible. But the British are no longer in the EU. They are, however, members of NATO. A meeting at the Secretary General's residence does not involve the Alliance but allows the British to be received.

Mark Rutte banged on the table. “It is time to move to a war mindset and increase our production and defense spending,” he said, a contrast with the usual optimism of the NATO secretary general and was considered anxiety-provoking. But money must be found. Lots of money. The Spaniard Josep Borrell, in the last days of his mandate as EU High Representative, called on member states to use the capital of Russian assets frozen by sanctions, because the [earnings alone] from these assets will be insufficient to finance military support for Ukraine. The amounts are substantial: $330 billion. But several member states are blocking the decision-making. And unanimity is needed. €6.6 billion intended to finance arms purchases or to reimburse member states via the European Peace Facility (EFF) are blocked for the same reasons.

The European Union is slow, too slow….[And] NATO is out of the game as soon as Donald Trump refuses to involve the United States.

Would the Europeans have the courage to commit to a force deployed in Ukraine without the United States? Would the Ukrainians be sufficiently reassured? Would Putin be sufficiently dissuaded?

Will Donald Trump withdraw US forces from Europe? Will he leave NATO? The president-elect is blowing hot and cold. If the United States leaves the Alliance, the Europeans will not be able to provide the security guarantees requested.

Meanwhile, one leader must be feeling perhaps just a trifle uneasy—Hungarian strongman Victor Orban whose strained six-month reign gives way on January 1 in the EU rotation to Poland's Donald Tusk. As Hong Kong's South China Morning Post Brussels correspondent Finbarr Bermingham pointed out:

Orban was in Mar-a-Lago, US president-elect Donald Trump’s Florida residence, meeting Trump, business tycoon Elon Musk and other political figures. [Then] he had a one-hour phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, for which he was scolded by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“No one should boost personal image at the expense of unity; everyone should focus on shared success,” Zelensky wrote on social media.

The next day, Orban was in the air again, off to Turkey to meet President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to again promote his idea of a “Christmas ceasefire” for the war in Ukraine—a proposal roundly rejected by Kyiv.

The whirlwind week captured Orban’s self-styled policy of “economic neutrality”: he wants to remain in the good graces of superpowers to Hungary’s east and west, continuing a high-wire act he has performed for years.

Now, though, Orban is facing his biggest balancing act to date. Officials around Europe are wondering how long he will remain the European Union’s most pro-Trump and pro-China leader, particularly as the next US president threatens to get tougher on Beijing and could ask European governments to sever ties with China.

“There are two dimensions at play. Politically, Orban is very happy with Trump, he elevates his station, and he can think he plays at the big table, that is the most important thing for Orban,” said Tamas Matura, an expert in Hungary’s relations with China at the Corvinus University of Budapest.

On the economic front, Hungary is struggling. Its economy dipped into recession for the second time in two years in October, making it the only euro-zone member to be in contraction. That is why China is so important to Orban.

“Eventually he will have to make a choice,” a senior EU official said. “It’s Trump or China. We don’t know which one he would choose.”

And then there's trade….Britain quietly joined a trans-Pacific trade pact that includes Japan, Australia, and Canada—bolstering an agreement from the Obama years that Trump pulled out of in his first year in office seven years ago. As the Bangkok Post published:

Britain officially became the 12th member…as it seeks to deepen ties in the region and build its global trade links after leaving the European Union….its biggest trade deal since Brexit. Thailand is not a member.

The accession means Britain will be able to lower tariffs with eight of the 11 existing members—Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.

In a sign of the strategic, rather than purely economic, implications of the pact, Britain can now influence whether applicants China and Taiwan may join the group. The free trade agreement has its roots in the US-backed Trans-Pacific Partnership, developed in part to counter China's growing economic dominance.

And in rode Elon

The arrival of the world's richest man alongside the man who would soon be the most powerful has not been lost on commentators abroad. As Anthony Zurcher, the BBC's North American correspondent observed on Friday:

Exactly a month from today, Trump will take the presidential oath of office and move back into the White House. This week, however, we got our first full taste of the chaos that could be in store.

Democrats and Republicans in Congress had spent the past few weeks negotiating compromise legislation that would fund the US government and check off a variety of other year-end priorities—some more favoured by Democrats.

Then Elon Musk happened. The tech multi-billionaire took to his social media megaphone and condemned the funding bill as wasteful. Republican support in the House of Representatives evaporated, and by evening Trump—who had been mostly silent about the legislation—also weighed in against it….

All of this just underscores how hard it is going to be for Republicans in Congress to govern, even with Trump at the height of his political power. They abhor compromise with the Democrats, but they will be hard-pressed to muster a majority without them.

The takeaway: Trump and Musk have proven they can tear down legislation they don’t like. But if they want to get their agenda enacted, they’re going to have to get better at building support in Congress.

Beyond America, is Elon embarking on a remake of America's global politics? James Angelos pointed out in Politico Berlin Bulletin that Elon's gone full-bore in support of Germany's neo-Nazi Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party that will be challenging as a major force in the February elections to choose a new government and the Chancellor who will lead it:

Musk made it official and endorsed the AfD in the kind of apocalyptic terms the party loves to use.

“Only the AfD can save Germany,” Musk wrote on X. Perhaps the post wasn’t all that surprising given Musk’s recent endorsements of European populist-right parties. But expressing support for the AfD, a party Germany’s federal domestic intelligence authorities are monitoring as a suspected extremist organization aiming to undermine German democracy, arguably takes things to a new level. Even some German conservatives call the AfD a Nazi party.

Perfectly right: AfD politicians, of course, could barely contain their excitement. “Yes! You are perfectly right!” Alice Weidel, the AfD’s chancellor candidate posted on X in response to Musk’s endorsement.

An AfD Christmas: Weidel followed up shortly after with a video on TikTok of her standing in front of a Christmas tree. “Dear Elon, Thank you so much for your note,” she said in heavily accented English. The AfD, she went on “is indeed the one and only alternative for our country, our last option, if you ask me.”

Fun fact: Despite the newfound love between Musk and the AfD, the far-right party opposed Tesla’s Gigafactory outside Berlin.

‘Things that are not right’: Elon’s AfD endorsement caused a backlash among mainstream leaders in Germany. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in his typical blandest manner possible, responded: “We have freedom of speech, which also applies to multi-billionaires. But freedom of speech also means you can say things that are not right and do not contain good political advice.”

And don't forget the (almighty?) dollar

As London's Financial Times observed:

Wall Street is betting the US dollar will make further gains after its recent storming rally, even hitting parity with the euro, in a challenge to President-elect Donald Trump’s stated desire for a weaker currency. The dollar has soared 6.2% since the start of October, its best quarter since the early stages of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate raising campaign in 2022, as markets began to expect the Republican candidate would win November’s election and implement his plans for trade tariffs and tax cuts. More than half of all major banks surveyed by the Financial Times, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and UBS, are forecasting the dollar will rise even further next year.

Deutsche Bank expects it to reach parity against the euro in 2025, having already strengthened from $1.11 at the start of October to around $1.04. As a result, many fund managers are dismissive of Trump’s chances of being able to weaken the US currency in order to help domestic industry, whatever his rhetoric may be. The idea of a weaker currency under Trump is “a bit of a pie in the sky”, said Sonal Desai of Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. “Most of the policies that he’s talking about so far, which seem definitely to be front and centre, will actually be dollar positive—not dollar negative,” she added.

Special for the Paid !

Andelman Unleashed has unleashed new, (lightly) paid tiers…also a great last-minute holiday gift!

Four new paid subscribers, an inscribed copy of my latest book, A Red Line in the Sand

Just another perk for our cherished, paid members of our Unleashed family, with a weekly portfolio of cartoons from Cartooning for Peace … and eventually, a live Friday zoom with Andelman … Plus, beginning today the Audio Book version read by yours truly …. So do sign up … cheaper than a monthly mocha grande.

This will also help us subscribe to more (expensive!) media across the globe and support great journalism in multiple languages.

How others see the World

Whither Syria…and the fallout

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s butcherous regime goes way beyond Syria even the Middle East, across continents. From the start of Russia's presence, Syria was seen as a keystone to the Kremlin keeping at least a toehold in a Mediterranean long dominated by NATO with its planes and warships based in Turkey, Cyprus, and Italy. But the stakes may be even higher….Start with Africa. As a team of correspondents pointed out in Le Monde Afrique ….

Russia has been working to preserve the essentials in Syria. Two sites are at stake in the negotiations with the new masters of Damascus, the former Islamist rebels of Hayat Tahrir Al-Cham (HTC): the Tartous maritime base and Hmeimim airport. Deployed in Syria since 2015, the Russian army has used these two bases, 60 kilometers apart, as logistical support points for its operations in the Sahel , since its aging large-capacity aircraft do not have sufficient range to fly non-stop from Russia to Libya.

In the event of an expulsion from Syria, the Russian army has thus regrouped over the last ten days all its resources dispersed over nearly 20 bases and almost 100 posts. Large convoys of trucks and armored vehicles have been observed converging towards the Mediterranean coast….The fact that this vast logistical operation was able to take place without any notable incident proves the existence of coordination between the Russian general staff and HTC, which was nevertheless the target of the former's bombings for nine years.

In this context, Libya could see its strategic interest strengthened. Russia already has a foothold in Cyrenaica (East) and in Fezzan (South), under the umbrella of Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who established a power in Benghazi parallel to that of Tripoli. Several flights between Hmeimim and Benghazi were identified at the time of the fall of Bashar al-Assad.

A plane of the Cham Wings company, owned by a close friend of the al-Assad clan, which landed on December 8 at Benina airport, in the suburbs of Benghazi, was carrying a very special group: a group of high-ranking officers of the Syrian army. There was even a report that Maher al-Assad, brother of the deposed dictator, was among the passengers.

The challenge is also political for Russia. From Bamako to Niamey via Ouagadougou, the putschist militaries supported by Moscow have closely followed the Russian reaction to the rebels' lightning offensive on Damascus. And they all made the same observation: Moscow was not able to save Bashar al-Assad—even abandoned him. This raises a question: if Vladimir Putin did not protect his Syrian ally, strategic to his aims in the Middle East, what would he do for them?

Among these African partners, particularly Malians, the fall of the Syrian dictator has revived questions about the solidity of their protector. Doubts had already emerged in June 2023, after the aborted rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his mercenaries from the Wagner Group.

"Everyone is asking questions again since the events in Syria," confided a Malian officer. "It's a total failure for the Russians, which calls into question their reliability and weakens their position in Mali and the Sahel. It's not very reassuring."

Back home in Damascus

The first American has landed, and the signals are mixed….depending on which view you're taking. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) looked at both sides:

US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf described Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al Shara as “pragmatic” but did not specify what concrete steps Shara or the HTS-led interim government will take to combat terrorism or ensure minority rights. Leaf stated that Shara gave ”moderate” statements on issues, including women's rights and protection for minorities.

Leaf confirmed the United States will no longer pursue the 10-million-dollar Rewards for Justice bounty on Shara due to his commitment to ensuring terrorist groups inside Syria pose no threat to the United States or its regional partners. The US readout offered no details on whether Shara agreed to any binding commitments in exchange. Leaf stated the United States supports a Syrian-led political process that results in an “inclusive and representative government” and includes Syria’s “diverse ethnic and religious communities.”

On the other hand …

The HTS-published readout of the meeting between Leaf and Shara portrayed the United States as supporting HTS efforts to consolidate control and deprive Syrian Kurds of regional autonomy, even though the US readout gave no indication of such things. The HTS-published readout framed the United States as supporting a “unified Syrian army” that stands by the interim government “in confronting pending issues and major challenges such as the northeastern region.”

This language implies US support for the HTS and Turkish effort to coerce the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into disbanding and forfeiting their autonomy to integrate into a new state structure under HTS. Elements of the SDF would be reintegrated into the Syrian army alongside other militia groups, some of which have worked to kill and displace Kurdish communities. The HTS-readout further claimed that the United States “affirmed its commitment to supporting the Syrian people and the new Syrian administration,” likely to portray the United States as recognizing the HTS-led interim government as the official Syrian government, despite the United States having made no such comments. The HTS-readout—like the US one—provided no specific or binding steps that Shara or the HTS-led government will take to counter terrorist groups in Syria.

In short, the jury's still out, especially since the Leaf mission took no note of the other leading power in the region. And that's Israel, but especially Benjamin Netanyahu. There's always Netanyahu, with his needs and desires—one who can rarely pass up a perceived opportunity, no matter the consequences.

As Aluf Benn, editor-in-chief of the authoritative Israeli daily Haaretz observed…

Israeli forces are getting closer to the goal of Israel's old war games on the northern front: stabilizing a line on the outskirts of Damascus. The capital is still far from the rifle barrels of the Israel Defense Forces, which has taken over the demilitarized zone that was agreed on after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The IDF has announced that it hasn't moved forward out of the zone …. The IDF celebrated the operation with photos of the Israeli flag atop Mount Hermon…..

….and tanks in the town of Quneitra, but it obscured the fact that this was on Syrian land, not a no-man's-land. Israel has told the international community that the operation was limited; the army took over just a few positions that overlook the Syrians…. These moves are being celebrated as Israel's greatest successes since the 1967 Six-Day War.

How long will Israel control the "expanded" Golan Heights? What will happen if the chaos in Syria worsens, with part of the disintegration going against Israel? Will the IDF stay put or advance further toward Damascus and Daraa in the south as it expands the new security zone?

Netanyahu gave himself credit for the sudden downfall of the Assad regime, which once seemed like a force of nature in the region. In Netanyahu's view, Israel's great achievement in the war against Iran and its allies in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon led to the revolution in Syria.

But Netanyahu went another step, effectively canceling political agreements for the region. In doing so, he ended an arrangement that was signed at the end of the Yom Kippur War and had been scrupulously honored for 50 years, giving Israel stability and quiet on the Syrian border. If the agreement has collapsed, Israel is no longer bound by the map that accompanies it; it can change the border according to its security needs.

China's still adrift in its own backyard

The focus on many in the West these days when it comes to Asia is the chance of a trade war between the US and China or a hot war over Taiwan. But the most proximate conflicts seem to be boiling in the vast reaches of the South China sea that Beijing has long seen is its own backyard. And, here, Trump again threatens the metastable status quo. As the Manila Times observed:

More than a month after China declared its "baselines" around Bajo de Masinloc—de facto territorial borders defined by the precise geographic coordinates on the shoal—President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. continues to ignore this historic, formal amputation of the country's territory.

Marcos is either so ignorant over the meaning of this recent Chinese move or he is burying his head in the sand, refusing to think about the problem. He has so far not commented on this formal loss of Philippine territory, the first since we lost Sabah in 1963.

Instead, Marcos has merely condemned China's recent moves to enforce its claims of sovereignty over Bajo de Masinloc (international name, Scarborough, Huangyan Dao to the Chinese) such as the Chinese coast guards' firing water cannons at and maneuvering to force a Philippine fisheries bureau ship going to the shoal.

Is he waiting for guidelines from the US administration, which unfortunately is busy with the Ukraine and Gaza Strip wars, as well as the fact that US President Joe Biden is a lame duck president with President-elect Trump still to assume power on Jan. 20?

Incidentally, Andelman Unleashed explored the vast background and deep history of this entire South China Sea crisis in compelling detail in A Red Line in the Sand, available free with an inscription by the author for all our new paid monthly subscribers! A great gift as well!

And now, for our most highly valued, but lightly paid members, we'll conclude with a new look at the venerable durian, the King of Fruits … Not to mention a link to the Unleashed Audio version for listening in your car or on the go … of this week's TWTW. Just click below …. And we'll wind up with a bonus gallery from Cartooning for Peace "looking back on a crazy year."