TWTW: The World This Week #120

A seminal moment in Notre Dame...then back to reality & more in France, Syria, Russia, Ukraine, South Korea...Rinse & repeat in Romania...For our paid: Wagner in Bucharest...Cartoonists on Macron

In this weekly feature for Andelman Unleashed, we continue to explore how the media of other nations are reporting and commenting on the United States, and how they are viewing the rest of the world.

How others see America

It was supposed to be about the reincarnation of a cathedral first constructed more than two centuries before Columbus discovered America. It was here that Joan of Arc was beatified, Mary Queen of Scots married, and Napoleon crowned emperor…..

….not to mention serving as ground-zero from which all mileages from Paris are measured.

This weekend was supposed to be all about its rebirth, quite literally from the ashes; perhaps about French President Emmanuel Macron making good on a pledge five years ago after fire eviscerated Notre Dame to rebuild it in five years—a promise few believed he could keep. He did. But with the invitation of Donald Trump to the opening ceremonies among 40 heads of state, not surprisingly it also became largely about the president-elect…..as the great Swiss cartoonist Patrick Chappatte observed, Trump leading Macron and a procession proclaiming: "You should see Mar-a-Lago!"

But as I explained on CNN on Saturday, it really was much more than simply about Donald Trump, though with so much on the line, that was hardly avoidable:

Or as Philippe Ricard, Elysée correspondent for Le Monde, put it:

Was it to speak in his ear between the opening of the doors and the Te Deum? Donald Trump insisted on sitting next to Emmanuel Macron at Notre-Dame's reopening on Saturday….

And so he was …..though perhaps a trifle bored…or just reflective?

Ricard continued:

The French President, who met the US president-elect on the sidelines of Notre-Dame's reopening on Saturday, is cultivating personal diplomatic contacts, relying on his powers of persuasion.

Le Parisien picked up the tale under a carefully chosen headline:

Inside, there is a cathedral silence. Only two arrivals break it. First, that of Volodymyr Zelensky, to whom the public gives a standing ovation. "Sit, sit!" orders the security who tries to enforce protocol. Then Donald Trump, not applauded but who arouses a lot of curiosity among his neighbors. The resigning ministers seem surprised to see the elected president of the United States so close.

The double presence of Trump and Zelensky at the ceremony, following the unexpected trilateral meeting organized in record time at the Élysée, marks a great diplomatic coup for Emmanuel Macron.

While waiting for the doors of the cathedral to open, the head of state welcomed one by one with his wife, in the coldness of the forecourt of Notre-Dame, the forty foreign heads of state and government, from the King of the Belgians to Prince Albert of Monaco, including Congolese President Sassou Nguesso and billionaire Elon Musk, Donald Trump's right-hand man.

In short, though, it was magnificent, with all of France and much of the world tuning in…..

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How others see the World

France: back to reality

But when it all ended, for Emmanuel Macron and his nation all but rent asunder, the problems and perils remain. As I explained in my MSNBC column Friday evening:

Macron's roll of the dice has come up snake eyes.

Still, there's Ukraine ….

Few noticed it, but was it simply sartorial coincidence or deliberation? Donald Trump showed up at the Elysée Palace yesterday in his trademark dark blue suit, his bright red tie replaced with a gold-colored variety—blue and gold being the very colors of the Ukrainian flag. Which could hardly have been lost on his interlocutor, President Volodymyr Zelensky, who emerged from the three-way set up by their host Macron, telling the world on X:

"Peace through strength is possible," viewed 4 million times.

And then on the ground in Ukraine and neighboring areas of Russia, the Institute for the Study of War suggested Russia may be paying (in the long run) an unacceptably high price for this conflict:

· The Russian military command likely assesses that they have allocated sufficient manpower and materiel to the efforts to…level the frontline in western Donetsk Oblast in the coming weeks.

· The Russian military command will likely continue to trade Russian materiel and manpower for tactical territorial gains at an unsustainable rate during their offensive operations to seize Pokrovsk into 2025.

· Ukrainian forces continue to use drone strikes to contest Russia's presence in the northwestern Black Sea, including near gas extraction platforms.

· Ukrainian forces will reportedly receive increased access to Starshield, a more secure satellite network for Starlink terminals, which may give Ukrainian forces an advantage in the technological innovation arms race in which Ukrainian and Russian forces are currently engaged.

But especially intriguing was this final tidbit from ISW:

Russian authorities continue efforts to forcibly impress migrants into signing military service contracts with the Ministry of Defense (MoD) as part of ongoing cryptomobilization efforts.

And then there's Syria…

…where Putin and his strategic objectives may be paying the biggest price for his straddling an unending war in Ukraine and the sudden yet all but unanticipated end of the Assad era. Together, they represent potentially dicey catastrophes, as Belgian cartoonist Vanco observed for Cartooning for Peace:

All this came most sharply into focus with Russia's abandonment of its only Mediterranean air and naval facilities as London's Telegraph reported:

The Russians are desperately evacuating their warm-water naval base at Tartus—all the Russian ships there actually put to sea days ago. The nearby Russian airbase is being evacuated too.

Droxford Maritime saw as early as Tuesday morning that a tanker and some warships were leaving Tartus. By the evening, [satellite] image analysts such as MT Anderson had zoomed in and confirmed the base was now empty.

Three frigates (two Gorshkov class and one Grigorovich class), one improved Kilo submarine and two auxiliaries, one of which is the tanker Yelna, had all departed.

This is a disaster for Putin, given that he now has no warm water naval access. Tartus is now or soon will be surrounded by enemies and the Bosporus is closed to Russian warships due to the ongoing Ukraine war. Putin’s illegal Ukraine invasion has closed off access to the Mediterranean Sea from the Black Sea bases of Odesa and Sevastopol—which he no longer controls—and Novorossiysk. Russian warships can now reach the Mediterranean only by departing from the Arctic or Baltic on a long trip around Europe via Gibraltar. The fledgling Russian base in Libya is now seriously compromised.

So, who's in charge now?

Certainly not Bashar al-Assad, the bestial dictator and ruler of Syria, who Russian state media said has fled with his family in tow to Moscow, an end to 54 years of one nation being held hostage or in slavery by a single family. They leave behind no end of losers in the region, though perhaps some winners as well.

Among the losers, Iran would be a close second to Russia, as the Israeli daily Haaretz points out, but already Israel is sticking its oar in:

Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the IDF to seize control of the buffer zone on the Golan Heights between the two countries, located in Syrian territory. The disengagement zone between Israel and Syria, established in 1974 following the Yom Kippur War, is supposed to be supervised by UNDOF (the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force).

· "This agreement has collapsed, Syrian soldiers abandoned their positions," Netanyahu said, adding that Israel "will not allow any hostile forces to establish themselves at our border." He said, "this is a temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found."

· Regarding the anti-Assad rebels' take-over of Syria, Netanyahu said that "this is a historic day for the Middle East" which "offers great opportunity but also is fraught with significant dangers." He emphasized that Israel would like to "establish neighborly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria."

· The IDF declared a closed military zone over border areas of Israel's Golan Heights. Later on Sunday, the IDF took control of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon in the Golan Heights to prevent the rebels from conquering the area, after the Saudi channel Al-Hadath reported that Assad's army had retreated. The IDF also told residents of five Syrian towns near the border to remain in their homes.

· Israeli aircraft conducted three airstrikes against a major security complex in Damascus, along with a research center where Israel had previously said Iranian scientists developed missiles...Israel Air Force fighter jets struck a Syrian Air Force base in southern Syria.

· Opposition leader Yair Lapid said he "supports expanding the [Syrian Golan] security zone until the situation becomes more clear," adding that Israel should "refrain from unnecessary declarations that could push the new Syrian government onto an adversarial path" and act to build a regional coalition against the Iranian axis.

• IDF sources told Haaretz that while IDF intelligence was aware of the instability in Syria, the rapid collapse of the country's army "surprised everyone," adding that the IDF is taking steps to ensure that Syrian army weaponry does not fall into the hands of the rebels.

• The Syrian opposition-affiliated media outlet Kol Al-Bira reported that Israel is "systematically destroying all the brigades and battalions of Assad's regime in southern Syria, including air defense systems, missile warehouses, and production facilities."

• Hezbollah withdrew all of its forces from Syria on Saturday….Israel struck a convoy of armored Hezbollah vehicles driving out of Qusayr city near the Syria-Lebanon border,

Meanwhile, Amos Herel, the lead military and defense analyst for Haaretz reported:

Netanyahu likely sees the dramatic developments in Syria as an opportunity to deliver a final blow to Iran. For months, Netanyahu has been urging the U.S. administration—first under Joe Biden and now under the incoming Donald Trump—to strike directly at Iran and dismantle its nuclear project. Predicting Trump's stance is challenging, given his conflicting inclinations toward aggression and isolationism. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether Netanyahu uses the events in Syria to avoid progress in negotiations over the Gaza hostage deal.

As for Iran….Iran Insight reported the country already seems to be shifting its focus but hardly abandoning its efforts to cause unrest in the neighborhood:

In its first official reaction to the recent developments in Syria, Iran on Sunday called for an end to the ongoing conflict and the initiation of inclusive national dialogues to shape the country’s future.

"The determination of Syria’s future and decisions about its destiny must remain in the hands of the Syrian people, without any destructive interference or external imposition," the Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement….

Meanwhile, Ahmad Nadri, a member of Iran’s parliament, suggested that the country shift its strategic focus following Assad’s downfall, proposing Iran prioritize nuclear testing and reinvigorate the so-called resistance front, which he views as crucial for Iran’s regional influence post-Syria crisis.

That "resistance front" comprises the very militias that Iran has supplied for decades. But that also includes Hezbollah that Iran has largely supplied via trade routes through Assad-controlled Syria—now likely to be closed to it. And then there's the nuclear question, as Haaretz's Amos Herel points out:

Israel identifies a chance for a further weakening of Iran's regional status. Iran's conduct is eliciting concern in other respects. Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Tehran had dramatically increased its capacity for enriching uranium to a 60% grade. With its back to the wall on so many fronts, will Iran's leaders be tempted to take unilateral steps and advance its nuclear program so as to restore some of the regional deterrence it has lost?

The current upheaval in the Middle East, which began with the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7 last year, is generating huge secondary tremors that are developing in unanticipated directions. Iran funded the building of Hamas' military force for years….What seemed [then] to be a huge victory for the radical axis led by Iran is now perceived quite differently.

The vision of Quds Force commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani, to create a huge Iranian sphere of influence in the region while surrounding Israel with a 'ring of fire,' is falling apart, almost five years after he was assassinated in an American operation.

South Korea's on edge

The nation's now much-maligned president, who survived an impeachment vote following his imposition of martial law may finally be heading for the exits thanks to his own ruling party. As the Korea Herald reported:

The prime minister and the leader of the ruling conservative party on Sunday jointly announced their plans to fill in for President Yoon Suk Yeol, claiming he will no longer be involved in handling state affairs, in a move denounced by the main opposition as unconstitutional.

In a public address given by Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and the ruling People Power Party Chair Han Dong-hoon, the two said they would cooperate in operational matters related to "national governance." They did announce when any such transition would take place….

"President Yoon will not be involved in handling state affairs, including foreign policy, even before his resignation," Han Dong-hoon said. “We plan to minimize the turmoil (stemming from Tuesday's martial law decree) through President Yoon's orderly resignation.”

Rep. Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the [opposition] Democratic Party, said Han proposing to “share the president’s powers is completely baffling. The people elected Yoon, not Han, as president. This is another coup that destroys the Constitutional order."

Elections 2024: Romania, rinse and repeat

As if the week wasn't bad enough for Putin, it only got worse with the sudden, surprise decision by Romania's Constitutional Court to annul results of the first round of the presidential election and cancel the second round due today (Sunday) that would have pitted the Kremlin's chosen candidate against an upstart liberal woman mayor from the provinces. Romania's G4Media.ro was all over this historic moment:

The CCR did not explain the reasons, but the decision came after the declassification of information from the secret services that documented the interference of a “state actor” in the campaign of candidate Călin Georgescu. G4Media announced the information for the first time, citing official sources. The CCR also decided that the electoral process for the election of the president of Romania will be resumed in its entirety, with the government to set a new date . This means that the elections will be held from scratch, with candidates having to register again.

Following the CCR's decision, President Klaus Iohannis announced that he would remain in office until a new president is elected….

The cancellation of the elections comes amid the declassification of information from the secret services, which indicated Russian interference in the elections.

Meanwhile, demonstrations broke out across the country…

….and the BBC explained the stakes:

The far-right independent candidate, Călin Georgescu, came out of almost nowhere to lead the first round two weeks ago amid allegations of Russian interference. Georgescu has condemned the ruling as a coup and Romania may have to wait months to vote again.

Romania is a key NATO member on its eastern flank and shares a long border with Ukraine. It is not the first Eastern European state to fend off Russia's hybrid war, and the constitutional court has ruled that intelligence revelations of Russian meddling are sufficiently serious to put the presidential vote on hold.

Moldova's recent presidential vote was held amid alleged Russian interference and voter fraud, and across the Black Sea in Georgia, the pro-Western opposition says contested elections there were hit by Kremlin meddling.

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Indeed, there's much more buried beneath the surface of this Russian adventure in Romania—from the French Foreign legion to Russia's Wagner mercenaries in Africa. And we'll lay it all out for our valued paid subs! At the same time, our cartoonists have a look at France's political dilemmas and several other points of reference in a unique portfolio with a tribute to our incomparable associates from Cartooning for Peace ....