TWTW: The World This Week #117

New word around the peripheries of Russia's war...doing whatever can be done to prevent Trump from doing his worst...Deep in the heart of the Balkans...Some remarkable cartoonists weigh in.

In this weekly feature for Andelman Unleashed, we continue to explore how the media of other nations are reporting and commenting on the United States, and how they are viewing the rest of the world.

This week, coming to you from Chisinau, Moldova ... following an extraordinary week in Bucharest….

On the trail ….

First a brief word about what has taken me, first, to Bucharest and now to Moldova. Those of you who have followed my Unleashed Memoirs may recall that in the late 1970s I served as the East European bureau chief of The New York Times and in those years traveled frequently to Romania when Nicolae Ceausescu ruled this Soviet-bloc state with an iron hand. One key to his power was the formidable and feared Securitate, his secret police, which monitored often with minute and certainly invasive detail, every aspect of life here. Central among Ceausescu’s obsessions was his image, but especially abroad (and how these reports on his country were played back to his people through the short-wave broadcasts of Radio Free Europe and the Voice of America). It was hardly surprising that my activities—who I met, what I wrote and filed—were obsessively monitored. With the fall of communism and the death of Ceausescu in 1989, eventually many of these files made their way out of Securitate control and into a vast, slowly-opened archive that now totals more than 28 linear kilometers of shelf space.

Photo by David A. Andelman

A small portion of these archives have since been microfilmed, and the archivists are able to access them (all in Romanian). I have now been allowed a glimpse at my own personal archives and some related material. They are stunning.

Photo by David A. Andelman

Eventually, I will be writing about them in what I hope will be compelling detail….for now, I ask only for your patience, my dear subscribers. Above all, there is a profound lesson buried here for our own times when a government and especially a leader with the will and desire to summon the ability to enter the lives of every individual, every family, may well be capable of doing so for his own particular purposes.

As for Moldova, it is now a nation poised on the knife edge of similar choices. Earlier this month, as Andelman Unleashed has chronicled, by a small majority, Moldova managed to avoid a plunge into the abyss of control that Vladimir Putin has sought to extend beyond his own Russia and hopes to expand even further. Moldova also happens to be the location of Edinet—the village where my grandparents, in 1895, began their own journey to the New World. I have gone in search of that now as well.  More on that later….so in both cases, stand by!

How others see America….

….has become Topic A on the front page of every newspaper across the globe, has hijacked virtually every international meeting, set the tone of every interaction and every conversation. As the French daily Le Monde put it in a banner headline in mid-week:

Trump sets in place a team of rupture

• The first appointments decided by the president-elect illustrate his desire for a radical break and an offensive against the federal state.

• Billionaire Elon Musk is named head of a ‘department of government effectiveness’ which will work outside the administration.

• Fox News anchor Pete Hegseth is named secretary of defense, and the real estate investor Steve Witkoff special envoy to the Middle East.

• Chosen above all for their loyalty to the leader, these new figures could shake up the practice of power beginning in January.

Much of the commentary has been punctuated by astonishment and especially fear of what lies ahead. For our paid members, we are offering at the end a gallery of how some of the most gifted cartoonists are looking at the challenges raised by Trump. Suffice it to say that Swiss cartoonist Gérald Herrmann, member of the collective Cartooning for Peace, who draws for the Tribune de Genève may have captured the mood to perfection:

Ukraine biggest single fear…and now ….

Late breaking, late tonight in Moldova hard by Ukraine itself … as the BBC put it:

US President Joe Biden has given the green light for Ukraine to use long-range missiles supplied by the US to strike Russia. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has been urging for months for these restrictions on long-range missiles to be lifted, allowing Ukraine to target locations inside Russia.

We've not heard from Russia's Vladimir Putin yet about Ukraine's use of long-range missiles, but he's issued warnings about it before. Back in September, Putin cautioned the West against letting Ukraine use their long-range missiles to hit Russian territory. He stated that Moscow would see it as the "direct participation" of Nato countries in the Ukraine war, saying it would "substantially change the very essence, the nature of the conflict. This will mean that NATO countries, the USA and European states, are fighting with Russia."

Is this part of Joe Biden doing whatever he can do something that Trump cannot undo? Ukraine now has two months to turn this war around….dramatically.

Perhaps the biggest single and most proximate fear, certainly in Europe, is just how Trump plans to deal with his pledge to “end the war in Ukraine” on his first day in office—which coincidentally he has said will be the one (?) day he acts as a dictator. Few countries are as worried about this as Poland—a NATO member which has maintained a determinedly pro-Ukrainian stance throughout its fight for survival.  Now Piotr Andrusieczko, Ukraine correspondent for the leading daily Wyborcza, believes it all now comes down to Trump:

The coming months, according to forecasts from experts and Ukrainian soldiers, will be particularly difficult. Until Donald Trump takes office as US president, Russia wants to occupy as much territory as possible, and Ukrainian forces are trying to prevent that.

The situation on the Ukrainian front has been difficult for many months. Only the places where it becomes critical change. Russia, regardless of losses, continues its offensive and like a steamroller wipes out more Ukrainian towns from the face of the earth, in order to occupy as much territory as possible.

According to a report by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on November 14, 144 clashes took place on 11 sectors of the front.

Meanwhile, diplomacy is still on the front burner, but with a sharp eye toward trends in Washington not so far over the horizon as another Wyborcza report suggests:

History is being made in Ukraine before our eyes, said Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski after meeting with the EU foreign policy chief. Josep Borell came to Poland straight from Ukraine, where he spoke with President Zelensky.

“There are changes on the front line in Ukraine, changes in European capitals, there is the result of the American elections. The time of decisions is coming. The future of our region, the credibility and the future of the European Union as a strategic player may depend on this,” Sikorski said.

The Polish foreign minister stressed that Europe is responsible for its citizens, its neighbourhood and future generations. “Europe has an obligation to make every effort to reach a fair agreement, to support the principles of international law, to restore the taboo that in Europe you cannot change the border by force,” said Sikorski. “If these principles cease to apply as a result of our actions or inaction, a dark future lies ahead of us.”

On January 1, Poland will assume the leadership of the European Union for a rotating six month stint—a critical, perhaps historic moment for the continent.

An even broader view from Brussels….

Really how quickly we forget is the suggestion from many quarters, as David Carretta and Christian Spillmann, our inimitable SubStack colleagues suggest with a series of questions with which Europe is already grapping in their La Matinale Européenne:

Donald Trump is returning to the White House. The Americans elected him and elected him well. When he takes office in January 2025, he will have all the powers, and the European Union will rediscover its fears. What will the unpredictable and vindictive American billionaire decide? His positions during the campaign are enough to worry his allies. Trump does not like NATO, and he does not like the EU. Will the American president close the umbrella? Will he disengage the United States from Europe while the war rages in Ukraine?....Is the Union ready to show strength to make itself respected? Is it able to ensure its security without the United States? The difficult debate on the nuclear deterrent capacity to make Europe a “power equipped” is once again being debated.

Then there is the interview in the Belgian business daily L’Echo, with one epiphanal quote from former Italian prime minister Enrico Letta:

Donald Trump will help Europe come of age.

The biggest question: who can, or will, talk with Trump? For one, Giorgia Meloni, the far-right Italian prime minister appears quite eager to play Trump whisperer for Europe. La Croix International spoke with Aldo Cazzullo, deputy editor of the Milan daily Corriere della Sera:

Giorgia Meloni is somewhat of a “macho” woman, so they will get along. Donald Trump does not believe in the European Union; his goal is to divide Europe and deal with each state individually from a position of strength. The two main questions now are: Does Giorgia Meloni believe in the European Union? I hope so. Or will she seek to create a privileged relationship with the U.S. president? I fear so.

she is much closer to Elon Musk than to Donald Trump. It’s not a love story, as has been written, but rather a human and political sympathy. “Idem sentire” (“they feel the same”), as the ancient Romans would have said.

I do not want to idealize Rome: like every empire, there was violence, bloodshed, and domination. But never like today. Just as Rome fell to barbarian invasions—and its internal weaknesses—the United States now faces divisions that prevent it from playing its role as the “beacon of the world” and model for democracy and freedom. And yet, we desperately need a form of world governance to collectively address our common problems.

Still, as we suggested last week, the world is still doing its best to de-crypt and even find some way to temper the steel being forged by Trump before it is too late. The Economist believes what may be especially horrifying is “what’s about to hit the world economy….[as] Trumponomics tees off…..”

Some governments will be in the line of fire, especially if the threat to extend tariffs beyond the universal rate becomes a Trumpian negotiating tool. Most vulnerable is Mexico, which will be a target both of Mr. Trump’s immigration policy, because many illegal migrants cross its border with the United States, and of his trade policy, because Mexico is home to factories that send their exports north under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

Mr. Trump appears to have a special animus against the snooty leaders of the European Union. Many Republicans allege that, by footing the bill for American troops in Europe as part of NATO, America is in effect paying for European welfare. For Mr. Trump, the EU’s huge trade surplus with America rubs salt in the wound. Europe can expect to pay. The main target of a hostile economic policy will be China….

Fore!

Countries would do well to prepare for what is coming…

Speaking of what’s coming….

Mexico feels itself most directly in Trump’s cross-hairs…as the leading Mexico City daily El Universal explained:

In Latin America , the case of Mexico, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba are entering a period of uncertainty and expectation of crisis, belligerence and risk….

Which is not to say Mexican’s new leadership under the presidency of the nation’s first woman head of state, isn’t up to the challenges, as El Universal continued:

A business policy where war, state terrorism and the construction of a new era of American Republican electoral preeminence will be oriented to sustain the USA as an unparalleled world hegemonic power, a short and medium term destiny at a new global social, political and financial price….

Upon leaving a meeting with President Claudia Sheinbaum, Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard ruled out any problems in bilateral relations with the United States given the arrival of Donald Trump to the presidency, and that they will confront the threats made by Donald Trump "with cold blood and intelligence."

Moreover, El Universal added, Trump and Sheinbaum spoke by telephone the day after the election…:

….to discuss the relationship that will exist between the two countries after the elections in which he emerged victorious.

On social media, with a photograph of herself smiling, Sheinbaum Pardo wrote: “We had a very cordial call with President-elect Donald Trump in which we talked about the good relationship that there will be between Mexico and the United States.”

China’s not waiting for show & tell…

But especially with Trump having picked as his Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a notorious China hawk. Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post was prepared quickly to headline the thoughts of a leading mainland official and not surprisingly, Taiwan was top of mind:

Taiwan is the “biggest flashpoint” between China and the US, and any attempt to use the island as leverage with Beijing will only backfire, China’s ambassador to Washington told a forum in Hong Kong on Friday in the first comments by a senior Chinese envoy since the US presidential election.

Speaking via video link, Xie Feng said the Taiwan question was the biggest potential source of conflict. “The Taiwan question is at the very core of China’s core interests, and it is the bedrock of the political foundation of China-US relations. If mishandled, it could be the biggest flashpoint that may trigger conflict and confrontation,” Xie said. “Any forces trying to play Taiwan as a card would be playing with fire. To truly uphold peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, one should commit to the one-China principle and the Three Sino-US Joint Communiqués in both word and deed, and unequivocally oppose Taiwan independence.”

….Trump, who is known for his transactional view on Taiwan, has picked many China hawks for his cabinet, including Beijing critic Marco Rubio as the next secretary of state.

Above all, Swiss cartoonist Herrmann again has a pretty good sense of how Europe, if not much of the world, dealing with their own problems, sees Trump inserting (or removing) himself in his own quite special fashion:

Toward anticipated elections in Germany

Macron: Berlin, what number to call?

Scholz: Paris, what number to call?

Trump: Europe no need to call them!

How others see the World

As Hermann suggests, an election is coming in Germany. And it could be every bit as traumatizing—in its own particular fashion—to Europe and the world as America’s has promised to be. But already, Germany’s election campaign has begun, and for many it is not off to a very auspicious start. Witness Chancellor (and damaged candidate) Olaf Scholz’s decision to pick up the phone and dial up the Kremlin, as Daniel Brössler reported in the Munich daily Süddeutsche Zeitung :

Scholz has not spoken to Putin for two years. Almost 1,000 days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he is now resuming contact. His goal: negotiations. Kiev reacted angrily.

Scholz stressed Germany's unwavering determination to support Ukraine in its defensive fight against Russian aggression for as long as necessary. The Chancellor underlined "that support for Ukraine is long-term and that the Russian President cannot count on time being on his side," government sources said….

Scholz also condemned the Russian air strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine and made it clear that sending North Korean soldiers to Russia for combat missions against Ukraine would lead to a serious escalation and expansion of the conflict. Before the phone call with Putin, Scholz had consulted with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He now wants to inform him and the Western allies about the content of the phone call. Zelensky was critical of the initiative. "In my opinion, Olaf's call opens Pandora's box," he said in his evening video message on Friday . With his call, Scholz had fulfilled Putin's long-held wish to reduce Russia's isolation and begin talks that would lead nowhere, said Zelensky.

There might have been another chance for East-West condominium—the annual G-20 summit of the heads of the world’s leading countries, but as SDZ pointed out:

Putin himself has cancelled his participation in the summit so as not to "disturb the normal work of the forum," which has other topics. There is an international arrest warrant against him from the International Criminal Court in The Hague for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. He would risk being arrested in Brazil.

Ukraine is not part of the G20. Zelensky was not invited to Rio as a guest by the Brazilian hosts.

Ahead of the G20 leaders gathering Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron paid an urgent visit to Argentina’s rabidly pro-Trump and often off-the-reservation president Javier Milei, as RFI reported:

French President Emmanuel Macron is in Argentina to meet with President Javier Milei—an admirer of Donald Trump—in the hope of ‘reeling him back in’ to the international fold on the eve of a G20 summit in Brazil.

This diplomatic visit aims to reintegrate Milei into the international consensus on crucial global issues, especially with a G20 summit approaching in Brazil.

This visit is particularly significant as it occurs right after Milei’s meeting with Trump in his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. The two leaders share a worldview focused on drastic reductions in public spending and a reluctance to engage with major international climate agreements and targets.

Meanwhile, Biden is headed to the summit following a two-hour one-on-one with China’s Xi Jinping in Lima Peru as Nikkei Asia reported

Chinese President Xi Jinping told U.S. counterpart Joe Biden that China was ready to work with Donald Trump for a smooth transition and improved relations, emphasizing that decoupling was not a solution.
 
The meeting took place in Lima, Peru, after the conclusion of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, which brought together business officials and global leaders ahead of a second Trump term that could upend global trade and unsettle U.S. foreign policy in the region. Just in the past several days, Trump—who has threatened tariffs of up to 60% on imports of Chinese goods—nominated politicians for his administration who have been harshly critical of China.
 
"China is ready to work with a new U.S. administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences so as to strive for a steady transition of the China-U.S. relationship for the benefit of the two peoples," Xi said.

And more talks to nowhere?

The COP-29 global climate talks are underway in Azerbaijan and in the shadow of the throbbing oil wells of the host—among the world’s largest producer of the fossil fuel in the cross-hairs of the 40,000 or more delegates assembled. As the BBC summarized:

World leaders taking part in the latest annual UN climate meeting in Azerbaijan are hoping to agree on action to help rein in rising global temperatures.

A key issue under discussion is how to get more cash to poorer countries, to help them curb their planet-warming gases, and to cope with the growing impacts of climate change. The decision to hold the meeting in the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, has been criticized because of the country’s ties to gas and oil.

The US election victory of Donald Trump—a known climate sceptic—could also prove to be a distraction, and some important leaders are not attending.

As the sessions wind up next Friday, November 22, Andelman Unleashed will present a more detailed discussion of just where these these sessions leave us.

Stand by….and for the first round of a landmark series of elections next weekend in Romania, whose campaign we’ve been monitoring this past week.

Incidentally, before COP-29 even convened, indeed before Trump was declared the victor on November 5, your correspondent was the guest on a podcast, Path to Zero, discussing “Energy’s role in global politics” with Tucker Perkins, that has now been broadcast….so click on the hyperlink and have a listen.

An Offer !!

Above all, around the globe, red lines about to be redrawn as never before in history—red lines whose DNA I explored in my last book, A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen … a free inscribed copy to be dispatched forthwith to every new annual paid subscriber to  Andelman Unleashed.

This is what our paid subs can enjoy today!

Heading for the hills, or Portugal, ahead of Trump?….And cartoonists around the world mark the arrival of the new, deeply feared TrumpWorld, in another unique portfolio from Cartooning for Peace and Le Monde ....