Thoughts You May Have Missed: Episode #4
France and Hungary go to the polls....the future of Europe and the West at stake
Here, on occasion, you will find some of my thoughts that have appeared elsewhere, that you may have missed and that you may find especially relevant in these parlous times….click on the hyperlinks to find my full commentary and reportage!
From CNN Opinion
Putin casts a shadow over Macron's reelection bid
Paris (CNN)---He strode into the sprawling domed arena on the fringes of Paris to the cheers of a crowd of 30,000; like a prize fighter arriving to defend his title before an adoring audience. Mounting the vast white stage, thousands of light sticks glimmering from the blackness in the crowd, French President Emmanuel Macron was in his element. This was his moment....
For much of France's four-month-long presidential race, Macron looked like a shoo-in to become the first French president in 20 years to win reelection. Now his lead isn't quite so comfortable.
Suddenly, Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally, on her third attempt for the presidency, is surging in the polls and Macron looks worried. Latest polls show the margin between the two candidates narrowing to 5%.
But most troubling are reports that 30% of the electorate may simply stay home on Sunday during the first round of the French presidential election. The top two candidates here will later face off in the final runoff on April 24.....
Macron's early assurance began to turn when the Ukraine crisis erupted at the very moment France was assuming the rotating six-month leadership of the European Union. Macron had quite rightly painted himself as the West's Putin-whisperer, an irreplaceable figure who could hold the Kremlin at bay or at least serve as a reliable avenue into the mind of the Russian dictator....
Time and again, the French have refused to turn their country over to any individual too far out of the mainstream. Le Pen lost five years ago to Macron in the second round. Just as her father Jean-Marie Le Pen did in 2002, losing in an 82% to 18% tsunami against Jacques Chirac....
In the end, why should Americans or anyone outside of France care so deeply about this? Because if any of Macron's most vigorous challengers from the left or right wins, the very foundations of western democracy risk being shaken to the core -- as profoundly as Donald Trump ever did. Le Pen really does want Frexit (exit from the EU), and France out of NATO. The question is how many French will want to risk that, particularly with a war virtually on their doorstep.
From NBC News/Think
Viktor Orban shows there’s still hope for Trumpism in Europe
[ Authoritarian leaders who drew support, or at least inspiration, from Putin haven’t been cowed by how badly his war is going or by European democracies’ newfound resolve. ]
Hungary’s far-right prime minister, Viktor Orbán, celebrated his win of a fourth four-year term Sunday by exulting that his victory was “so big that you can see it from the moon, and you can certainly see it from Brussels,” home to the European Union — or, for that matter, from Washington, Kyiv and Moscow.
How is all that possible in the wake of appalling images like those surging out of Ukraine, along with the nearly 400,000 Ukrainian refugees pouring across the 80-plus-mile frontier Hungary shares with Ukraine? There are several reasons for Orbán’s victory. All should be quite chilling for the E.U. and for Washington as they consider how to deal with this latest challenge to the heart of Western democracy......
The upshot for the West is that it will continue being forced to deal with a nation that refuses to allow the transit of any military supplies or equipment across Hungary to Ukraine or to participate in oil and gas sanctions against the Kremlin. Hungary enjoys prices one-fifth of those in the rest of Europe under a long-term contract that Putin and Orbán boasted about during a Kremlin visit in February, an economic perk Orbán isn’t eager to forfeit for his voters. Though in a pre-vote nod to any moderates in the electorate, Hungary did say it wouldn’t exercise a veto over other E.U. sanctions of Russia…..
The broader problem of Orbán’s win is the cleavages that it shows are alive and well in Europe. While the Ukraine invasion led to a unified and swift stand against Russia unprecedented since the Cold War, Orbán’s victory shows it’s not enough for all of Europe to reject leaders who lean toward authoritarianism.
So there is potentially more trouble ahead for any number of countries that have their own populist, right-wing political forces. French voters will go to the polls Sunday in the first round of presidential elections with two right-wing candidates, Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour, challenging incumbent Emmanuel Macron, whose lead has narrowed in recent days.