The world is living on borrowed time
Last Thursday was overshoot day, the moment humanity began eating its young
Beginning last Thursday, the world was running at a deficit. Not a fiscal deficit—not heading into or already in a recession, though much of the developed world may already be in or fast approaching that unenviable position—but a far more pernicious deficit. On July 28 the world passed through the "Overshoot Day," the moment humanity had already consumed all that the global ecosystem could regenerate in a year and began living on borrowed time.
This was a full day earlier than last year, and nearly three weeks earlier than in 2019, before the covid pandemic really sent the world into a tailspin. This calculation, by the non-profit think tank Global Footprint, is an intricate kaleidoscope of deterioration and abandonment, of advancing destruction of the rain forests, of failure to meet basic carbon benchmarks set years in the past, with a fiery future arriving at an ever more frightening acceleration each year. In fact, the Overshoot Day varies widely across the globe—from profligate Qatar and Luxembourg in February to Indonesia, Ecuador and Jamaica in December.
Europe and the United States had a ringside seat during July with the most horrific forest fires sweeping across vast areas of wilderness and towns, eating stands of ancient trees and swallowing entire villages indiscriminately.
The sudden reversal on a climate measure by U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) was without question one step toward restoring America to global leadership on the issue, and perhaps just in the nick of time. The Glasgow climate conference, COP-26, had been an all but abject failure last November, its one real success keeping on life support the goal of limiting the warming of our planet to 1.5°C. French President Emmanuel Macron, whose predecessor had presided over COP-21 in 2015 that sought to set standards few nations have met, has now been quietly at work trying to get on track COP-27 at Sharm El-Sheikh in November and COP-28 next year in the UAE's Dubai Expo City. Hosting Egypt's President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi for lunch in Paris and the new UAE leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum for a state visit and gala, the top item climate common to each was climate. Now, with the U.S. potentially back on track, these two conferences hold some real promise.
But there is so much that still remains to be done and so far the world still needs to go. The forest fires across Europe and North America and the crushing 100-degree heatwaves that accompanied them have had a major impact on the underlying political climate as well. But there are other critical, at times all but unsung crises at the confluence of environment and war that are deeply affecting the ability of millions across broad stretches of the planet to survive, let alone prosper.
One of these is the Russia-induced food shortages, but especially one aspect of this that has gone particularly unrecognized—the shortage of fertilizer. I've been given a peek at some data that shows these shortages alone are projected to lead to a loss of 72 trillion calories in food production over the next year. The most impacted in Europe are Spain (#1) followed by France, Germany, Italy, Britain, and Poland. Elsewhere the largest swaths of territory most deeply impacted are on the western and eastern stretches of Africa, Mexico, the west coast of South America. China, Russia, Turkey, Canada come out the best with actual increases in fertilizer production. Unblocking grain from Ukraine will help, but only in the short run. Fertilizer is the big need for the future of agricultural production on at least four continents.
Without access to fertilizers, even some of the world's most fecund lands are unable to produce the quantities of crops needed to feed population in the nations with the highest food deficits. Nowhere is this clearer than in the case of Ukraine. There, the Russian invasion has blocked the exit of vast quantities of grain from last year's harvest that should have been en route months ago to a host of markets, particularly in Africa, that depend on Ukrainian grain.
Of even greater significance, however, for this year and into the future is the shortage of fertilizers that threatens to decimate Ukraine's agricultural output. This year, the London-based business intelligence monitor CRU Group estimates Ukraine's corn crop will be 4.9 million tons or 19.51% short of last year, while wheat will fall 5.1 million tons or 26.28% short of its 2021 production. Some of this is of course a tribute to war and associate dislocations, but much of it is due to a desperate shortage of fertilizer to maximize crop yields. Overall, Ukraine will be losing food amounting to 34.5 trillion calories—nearly half of the global shortfall this year of 72 trillion.
This is, of course, only one aspect of the impact Russia's invasion and the continued war raging in Ukraine has had on the world's ability to sustain populations and ways of life.
Another, broader and more immediate issue is climate change and how Russia's manipulation of the energy markets is coming at a momentous moment, especially for Europe in its efforts to deal with a sulfurous summer today and a brutal winter to come.
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Here are some excerpts from my latest CNN Opinion column that are especially relevant. You may find the full column (and others!) by clicking here!
Cold showers in Germany, France's air conditioning crackdown: signs of Europe's future
Ten years ago, my friend Patrice and his wife, Brigitte, installed air conditioning in their summer home in the Pyrenees mountains in southwestern France. Their son insisted and paid for it -- a good thing. It's been getting hotter every year there, and this year the temperatures hit 95 degrees Fahrenheit and stayed there as forest fires spread across the country.
In Paris, though, where temperatures broke 100 degrees several days this summer, my friends have never installed it. Their house is on a landmarked street. The bureaucratic hurdles would have been insurmountable. And now it's less likely than ever that they'll have a chance.
France has never embraced air conditioning with any eagerness. Now, along with Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland, indeed most of the European Union, all are facing a toxic confluence of high temperatures, higher prices for energy and a Russian threat to cut off gas supplies. Now, all are putting increasing pressure on their citizens to hold down consumption. And the efforts are getting broader, deeper and will be immediately visible to everyone -- visitor and citizen alike. Each nation and a host of European companies should also be serving as a role model for the world's second-biggest environmental miscreant -- the United States…..
As it happens, France is the best positioned of most countries in Europe to cope with the carbon crisis. Energy has long been cheap in France -- far cheaper than in the United States -- largely a tribute to the proliferation of nuclear-generating plants, where it gets most of its electricity. And French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans earlier this year to build up to 14 new nuclear reactors…..
The question, of course, is how much support for these kinds of measures there will be when the weather, especially across northern Europe, pivots sharply later this fall and into a brutal winter when there is simply not enough gas, especially from Russia, to go around. How long that game of chicken can go on may be the biggest question facing both ends of the gas supply lines. It is essential, on so many levels, for these nations to stand firm against Russian aggression and its attempts to manipulate global markets to its own benefit.