As I have through the French presidential elections in April, now through the parliamentary elections in June, I'm posting here the latest updates, my ruminations, and a sense of just where we are and where we might be going in this landmark series of votes—landmark for the French, for Europe and for the entire western alliance, especially the United States. Follow along with me….stay tuned! Moreover, be sure to read the background in my latest book, A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen. And of course, subscribe here to my SubStack page….don't miss a single issue!
I am in Paris now, through the two rounds of “Les Législatives” and their aftermath!
For today, effectively the final lap of this long race toward a new direction for France, I would begin with my latest column for CNN Opinion …..
Here are some excerpts….following which you will find some compelling illustrations, charts and some thoughts that did not make it into this column for space, but are an added reason for subscribing to Andelman Unleashed !
PARIS—And now the fun begins. Suddenly, with a single stroke, from one of Europe’s most powerful, unassailable leaders, Emmanuel Macron has become as powerless as Joe Biden.
The French have chosen their National Assembly for the next five years. And the outcome? No party, but particularly not Macron’s, has come out with an absolute majority.
While Macron's centrist alliance, Ensemble!, won the largest number of seats in Sunday's parliamentary elections -- with 245 out of 577 seats -- it still falls short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority.
Now, having lost the majority he enjoyed in his first term, the French President will be forced to negotiate for every vote, every initiative with those who want nothing more than to see him fail. The far left and far right have control over the no-longer-majority center. And the big electoral surge -- an unprecedented tsunami really -- is from where? The far right.
If this all sounds depressingly familiar in Washington, it is. Of course, Biden's party controls both houses of Congress, but he doesn't have enough votes in the Senate for the supermajority needed to pass most legislation.
This presents a dramatic reversal from the same moment five years ago when Macron’s candidates for the National Assembly had followed up his dramatic win in the presidential election with an equally dramatic win for an unassailable majority in the parliamentary elections.
Now, two critical international meetings are coming up for Macron this month -- a European Union summit to decide on Ukraine's admission to candidate membership status in the bloc and a NATO meeting in Madrid that will debate, if not decide, on the admission of Sweden and Finland and more resources for Ukraine.
All these issues require a consensus that Macron seemed uniquely positioned to hammer out. No longer. His unchallenged ability to set foreign policy under the French Constitution has been eroded by a perception abroad that he is in no longer the uniquely potent leader he had positioned himself in his first term. Gone are the grand ambitions of succeeding retired German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the position as the effective leader of the EU.
For the remainder of this column, do visit CNN.com where you may read in full my Opinion:
Macron has suddenly become as constrained as Biden
Meanwhile, here are images and words exclusive to Andelman Unleashed !
What Macron wanted more than anything else from Sunday’s balloting for the members of the new national parliament was, “une majorité solide.” [a solid majority]
The French gave him anything but that……
As France’s leading all-news channel BFMtv asked beneath a chart in the first minutes after the polls closed. showing just how divided its parliament has become: “France Ungovernable?” was the question emblazoned across the screen.
Ungovernable remains to be seen, but the results have certainly left in limbo—twisting in the wind—Macron’s aspirations for a dramatic transformation of France’s social, economic, political, and diplomatic landscape, not to mention its standing in Europe and the world.
Here’s what the final vote tally looks like:
It's been quite clear for some time, remaining intensely clear even today, that Macron has not finished with a “hyperpresidency.”
This means at least as much abroad as at home.
Macron is still clearly focused on these priorities. But now he must also focus on just how he’ll cope with inflation surging at home along with gas prices and a general malaise with the whole direction of the nation.
One big question is in which direction will Macron reflexively gravitate to assemble the successive coalitions he will need. Will he naturally move gently toward the right giving the Les Republicans and its 61 votes—the party of De Gaulle but also the roundly disliked and utterly repudiated former president Nicolas Sarkozy—a new lease on life? Macron has been pretty clear that he will be avoiding at all costs the extremes denominated by Mélenchon and Le Pen.
Vive la République
Vive la France
This seemed of only secondary concern to the print editors of today's NY Times, who provided their first word on page 7!