Through the French presidential elections in April and the parliamentary elections in June, I'm posting here the latest updates, my ruminations, and a sense of just where we are and where we might be going in this landmark series of votes—landmark for the French, for Europe and for the entire western alliance, especially the United States. Follow along with me….stay tuned! Moreover, be sure to read the background in my latest book, A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen. And of course, subscribe here to my SubStack page….don't miss a single issue!
Now, as you will see by the dateline, I am back in Paris through the second round of les presidentielles and their aftermath!
PARIS— Just what kind of France might emerge from the battle next Sunday between incumbent president Emmanuel Macron, seeking re-election for a second and final five-year term and his far-right challenger, Marine Le Pen in her third try for the presidency, is coming sharply into focus.
Le Pen, her back against the wall, hoping that her first-round momentum will carry her into the Elysée Palace, has begun to show some of her true colors. In particular there was the iconic photo of a Green protestor being dragged from her press conference where she was outlining her vision of the world and France’s place in it.
But this was only the last in a series of images that began when the member of the militant ecologists group Collectif Ibiza, leaped to her feet, brandishing a 2017 photo of Le Pen and Vladimir Putin who’d met each other in the Kremlin with clearly-expressed affinities. Now, this photo was cut in a Valentine shape.
Tackled to the floor by Le Pen security, the protestor was dragged from the room. After Le Pen sought to pin the blame on over-zealous police, France’s Minister of the Interior, a Macron appointee, appearing on France’s all news network BFM hours later, observed sadly that all too often the reflex was to blame the police when they had nothing to do with any such action.
Yet Le Pen revealed her real view of any opposition, whether protestors or journalists, when she told another press conference that she had every intention of choosing which journalists could cover her and who would be barred.
With the battle lines hardening at the mid-point of this frantic two weeks since the field has narrowed from 12 contestants to two, the contrasts are becoming more acute and at the same time more frightening.
On Wednesday April 20, the two will meet in the first and only nationally-televised debate of the entire 2022 election cycle. Citing precedence, Macron refused, as have all his predecessors seeking second terms, to participate in any first-round debate that would have embraced all 12 candidates. The second-round debate with the two finalists will be carried by France’s two leading broadcast networks—TF1 and France 2. Le Pen refused to agree to one of the two designated moderators, Anne-Sophie Lapix, star anchor of France 2 who Le Pen judged as “extremely hostile.” Indeed, Le Pen had already refused to submit herself to an interview by Lapix during the first-round campaign. “Wanting to be president of France, confronting Putin or others, and incapable of handling a question from Anne-Sophie Lapix?” a leading left-wing politician Sandrine Rousseau asked on Twitter. The head of Le Pen’s party, Jordan Bardella, already quite a bomb thrower himself at 26 years old, observed that Lapix “can’t disguise her hostility to Marine Le Pen each time she invites her.” Since the venerable lead anchor of TF1’s flagship 8 o’clock evening news, Gilles Bouleau, 59, will be that network’s host, a woman from France 2 was considered essential. France 2 finally bowed to political realities and tapped Léa Salamé, headliner on the show “Élysée 2022.”
London’s Financial Times, in a lead editorial, suggested over the weekend how vital this whole process is: “Macron needs to pin down Le Pen on the real consequences of her policies. If Marine Le Pen wins, it will be a political earthquake to rival Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as US president in 2016. The victory of a fervent nationalist and Eurosceptic would throw the future of the EU into doubt. Le Pen’s agenda on immigration and Islam would also threaten social stability in France.” And then, of course, there is NATO, about which Le Pen remains equally skeptical of France’s role.
With a substantial part of the electorate still undecided after backing one or another of the 10 also-rans from the first round, or for that matter prepared to abstain or even cast a “blank ballot,” Wednesday’s debate could prove to be a watershed moment. (Blank ballots, incidentally, are a unique vehicle for expressing disgust with all who are on the ballot. French voters cast their votes by choosing several pieces of paper each with a separate candidate’s name [first round] or two pieces in the second round, retire to a booth, put their one choice in a brown envelope, then deposit the envelope in a large transparent box. When the polls close, each box, each envelope is then opened and counted by hand. Voters also have the right to simply deposit an empty envelope and are considered to have fulfilled their duty as French citizens.
Meanwhile, the polls continued to shift ever more gradually in Macron’s direction. Now, beginning with a slim single-digit lead following the first round on April 10, he has managed to widen the gap to 12%. That’s still a far cry from his 66.1% to 33.9% win the last time the two went head-to-head five years ago. But unlike the American Electoral College system, a single vote would carry day.
What has been especially interesting to watch in this first frantic week of the two weeks of campaigning that separate the first and second rounds is just who the two competitors are targeting and how they are going about this. The far-right, ultra-nationalist Le Pen clearly has devoted a large part of her efforts to winning over rural and working-class voters in what she calls the “forgotten France.” La France Profonde—or deep France—was also the foundation of support for Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie, in his multiple runs for the presidency. In 1986, as he campaigned in parliamentary elections, I followed him all over France for a profile for the CBS Evening News. In Annecy, deep in countryside near the Swiss frontier, a huge white tent had been set up and country folks and townspeople from all over the region flocked in. When he arrived, it was as though the Messiah had returned, Le Pen working his way into the tent as thousands of screaming fans launched themselves at him—a scene straight out of a southern American revival meeting. The reception his daughter elicits at times today is not that different. Focusing largely on cost of living issues, she has painted Macron as an out-of-touch elitist who does not understand people’s daily struggles.
Macron has not shied from confronting and seeking to win over at least some of the far-right or especially the far-left who he failed to attract in the first round. But especially the far left and the ecologists. On Saturday afternoon, Macron traveled to France’s largest port city, Marseilles, for a massive rally under cloudless blue skies. Stripping off his traditional dark suit jacket, in white shirt, sleeves rolled up, surrounded by a crowd of fans cheering “Ma-CRON, pre-si-DENT,” he mounted his trademark huge white hexagonal stage and, pacing back and for nearly two hours unveiled a new ecology plan centered around the appointment of an “ecology prime minister.” Green Party candidate Yannick Jadot had eked out 4.6% of the vote in the first round, endorsed Macron for Round 2, and Macron clearly wants every one of the 1,627,853 Jadot accumulated.
But Macron particularly wants the 7,712,520 votes (22% of the total cast) racked up by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left candidate, who finished just 1.1% behind Le Pen, and was Macron’s only leading opponent who refused to endorse him directly for the second round. All he’d say on election night was “not a single vote for Marine Le Pen.” Polls suggest that could mean 44% or more of Mélenchon voters simply sit on their hands in Round 2. Not a good number for Macron. Indeed, there is some suggestion that some Mélenchon voters could even go to Le Pen. The reason for this is the quite unique character of the French political spectrum. Rather than a linear, far left to far right in a straight line, in France, the political landscape is more an oval, with the extremes of left and right meeting at the bottom. But indeed, in this election year where outside forces from Ukraine to Covid, but especially rampant inflation and roaring fuel prices, are playing disproportionate roles, so very much remains up in the air. And Macron wants to leave nothing to chance.
Still, Le Pen’s principal problem, I have long held, is that a majority of the French have never been prepared to turn their country over to any Le Pen. And indeed, Macron’s first foray the morning after his first-round win last Monday was to the north and northeast of France—strong Le Pen territory. Any vote Macron can snag from her would come directly off her column.
It should not be forgotten, and a number of Macron campaign workers have pointed this out, Hungary just last month chose to return overwhelmingly to office for a fourth term Victor Orban, a far-right nationalist and Putin’s most loyal adherent in the European Union. A frightening thought: the two poles of Europe, east and west, could be in control of individuals who see little wrong with a world leader—Vladimir Putin—who Joe Biden and many others have variously dubbed a dictator, a butcher, and a war criminal.
As Macron concluded his presentation in Marseilles on Saturday:
· Le 24 avril, c'est un référendum pour ou contre l'Union européenne.
· Le 24 avril, c'est un référendum pour ou contre l’écologie !
· Le 24 avril, c’est un référendum pour ou contre notre jeunesse !
· Le 24 avril, c'est un référendum pour ou contre notre République et cette nouvelle époque !
Oui, le 24 avril peut être le point de départ d'une nouvelle époque française et européenne, celle de l'espérance ! Celle du climat ! Celle de l'ambition !
• April 24 is a referendum for or against the European Union.
• April 24 is a referendum for or against ecology!
• April 24 is a referendum for or against our youth!
• April 24 is a referendum for or against our Republic and this new era!
Yes, April 24 can be the starting point for a new French and European era, one of hope! One of the climate! One of ambition!
Well, one week more and we will certainly see who the French people will choose to lead them in any such quest.
Vive la France!
What % of the vote is Muslim immigrant and are they mostly Macron or blank ballot?