Through the French presidential elections in April and the parliamentary elections in June, I'll be posting here the latest updates, my ruminations, and a sense of just where we are and where we might be going in this landmark series of votes—landmark for the French, for Europe and for the entire western alliance, especially the United States. Follow along with me….stay tuned! And of course, be sure to read the background in my latest book, A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen.
Nine weeks before the first round of France's presidential election, still undeclared as a candidate, Emmanuel Macron has just attracted the 500 signatures of French mayors that every candidate needs to win a place on the ballot. His magic number hit 529. His nearest challenger is Valérie Pécresse with 324, followed by Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, the Socialist Party candidate, with 266. This chart represents the latest figure—that of February 3, released officially by the Conseil Constitutionnel (France's Supreme Court).
This chart demonstrates where we stand most graphically.
As Le Monde put it, with a banner headline in its weekend edition: "The mayors [are] at the heart of the battle of the godfathers." For that's the function each of these mayors are being asked to serve with their signatures—a prospective godfather to the next President of France. As Le Monde elaborated:
Macron has already achieved the goal, Pécresse and Hidalgo are on track, [Yannick] Jadot and [Jean-Luc] Mélenchon follow a notch behind, [Marine] Le Pen and [Éric] Zemmour are struggling.
Solicited from all sides, elected officials in small municipalities are torn between their convictions, the expectations of their constituents and the democratic game.
Some prefer not to give their sponsorship, try to consult their voters or wait to see which candidate will need them.
What's of critical importance is that they all have only until March 7—a month before the actual election—to reach the level of 500. That's when, "the Constitutional Council will stop the counters," Le Monde observed. The big question is which mayor will even want to hitch his or her wagon to an individual who has little or no chance whatsoever of reaching the Elysée. Hidalgo and Pécresse at least have offices—mayor of Paris and governor of the Ile de France province where Paris is situated—that could be of some value to mayors of tiny municipalities, some with just a handful of families. Jadot carries the aspirations of ecologists throughout France. Mélenchon will remain the darling of the far-left. And for the Communist Party, Fabien Roussel being their first official candidate in years, there are still scores of communist mayors of impoverished municipalities scattered across a nation that back in 1980 when there was still a Soviet Union, there were 1,500 communist mayors. Still, every five years the search for godfathers is always a complex game of three-dimensional chess that's being played for even a seat on the merry-go-round with the brass ring attached. And no more so than in 2022.
Meanwhile, Britain's global magazine, The Economist had some pretty cheery news for President Emmanuel Macron who, as of Sunday afternoon in Paris remained the leading undeclared candidate in every poll. But the British-based weekly suggested he was at this moment not only the leading, but from this graphic, the only likely candidate for election, or in his case re-election to a second and final five-year term. What the French so charming call a quinquennat.
Incidentally, if this turns out to be the actual vote in the first round of the French elections on April 10, there won't even be a second round. Any candidate that wins 50% of the vote becomes the president. Otherwise, it's a face-off two weeks later between the top two. That 50% barrier seems somewhat improbably high since there are at least three dozen at the starting gate, including 22 who've found at least one mayor to sign his or her petition. A dozen credible candidates seem to have accumulated enough of a war chest or assembled an équipe substantial enough or even show up in the national polls, suggesting any chance of getting on the ballot.
This week, there was little good news for any of the 13 leading candidates. Macron was still on top, though Pécresse gained a notch on him, largely irrelevant since the top two will make the second round. But Le Pen and Zemmour are now tied for a very close third. Ironically, the Socialist (Hidalgo) and Communist (Roussel) are tied for a slim 3 percent. If Roussel ekes out a lead on April 10, even if both wind up in the single digits, it would be utterly humiliating for the mayor of Paris and the Socialists who for 19 years actually controlled the Elysée under two presidents.
The front-page headline in Le Parisien daily that presented all these grim statistics was stark but clear. Above the two campaign posters of Zemmour and Le Pen, side by side: "Equal for the first time." Zemmour gaining, Le Pen fading, Pécresse little changed.
What's also interesting is the head-to-head matchups in the second round using the same IPSOS data in Le Parisien:
Macron still comes out the winner. If his competition were either of the right-wing candidates, the result would be close to his blow-out (66% to 34%) victory over Le Pen five years ago. But with Pécresse as his opponent, it appears right now it could be more of a horse race.
What's of greatest concern to many election observers, especially those running campaigns seeking to energize the electorate, is the vast political apathy that seems to be spreading across the nation. Part of it, of course, is the overwhelming energy being sapped by efforts to deal with the covid epidemic and the failure either of ruler or aspirants to come forward with any real solution to a problem that promises to transcend any other political, social or economic issue.
Zemmour and Le Pen are slugging determinedly at each other. But for what? If they both manage to accumulate their 500 godparents (parrains), they'll simply be battling it out for half of barely a third of the electorate anyway. That would probably leave the second spot to Pécresse on the more moderate right who herself is confronting a crisis of organization within her own campaign.
Still, 12 of these 13 leaders are fully declared candidates. So what’s held up Macron's formal declaration? Well, he's been pretty busy lately looking out for the future peace of the world, especially Europe. First and foremost, as the titular leader of Europe in France's six-month rotation, he's been striving desperately to keep the biggest armed conflict since World War II from breaking out on the eastern fringe of the continent. Between January 29 and February 6, Elysée sources tell me, Macron had at least 16 meetings or phone calls with leaders of West European nations, the U.S. and NATO, his last conversation coming late Sunday evening with President Biden. There were also five phone calls with Russia's Vladimir Putin plus three phone calls and one in-person meeting in Brussels with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenski, all leading up to a whirlwind two-day visit to Moscow and Kiev to begin on Monday (February 7). So really, there's not been a whole of oxygen left for a full-throated declaration for the French presidency. He's pledged, in an interview with François Clemenceau, not to leave Moscow without at least a signal of "de-escalation,” adding "then we will discuss the terms of the de-escalation."
All this is clearly with one end in view—to occupy the unofficial chair vacated last fall by Angela Merkel as the effective, indeed most powerful, leader of Europe….not to mention the West’s reigning Putin-whisperer. While these issues are critical to potential peace on the continent and certainly, if Macron succeeds in winning a second five-year term, central to his historic legacy, it's by no means clear it matters definitively to the vast bulk of the French electorate at the moment.
What's of greatest concern to many election observers and especially those running campaigns who are seeking to energize the electorate is the vast political apathy that seems to be spreading across the nation. Part of it, of course, are the profound energies being sapped by efforts to deal with the covid epidemic and the failure either of rulers or aspirants to come forward with any real solution to a problem that promises to transcend even war and peace. Part of it may be that few French even think much about their choice for their next leader until after the first televised debates … or until the first green shoots appear in the Tuileries.
Vive la France.