Through the French presidential elections in April and the parliamentary elections in June, I'll be posting here the latest updates, my ruminations, and a sense of just where we are and where we might be going in this landmark series of votes—landmark for the French, for Europe and for the entire western alliance, especially the United States. Follow along with me….stay tuned! And of course, be sure to read the background in my latest book, A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen. And of course, subscribe here to my SubStack page to be sure not to miss a single issue!
A quiet sense of desperation has begun to infect virtually the entire spectrum of the French electorate and the chattering class that normally would be shifting into high gear with just ….
…Six weeks to go before this year's landmark presidential election.
How is this possible? France's national Sunday daily, Le Journal du Dimanche has a single small line, buried beneath tiny reference boxes to the "Grand Chelem" rugby match, an end to Covid masking, and the "return of the smile" to the Césars (French Oscars). That line reads:
"Présidentielle: Deux nouveaux ralliements, un future abandon? Pages 14 á 16.
[ "Presidential [elections ]: Two new rallies, a future abandonment?" ]
Before we get to the first stories about the still deeply contested presidential contest, readers need to get through 12 moving pages of "War in Ukraine: how far will Putin go?" (The French spell Putin phonetically as they translate it from the Russian: Путин or Poutine.) However you spell it, though, his war has translated into some truly seismic shifts in French politics and France's view of the world.
JDD, as it is called, has some remarkable reporting. It commissioned BHL (Bernard-Henri Lévy), the French philosopher, writer and pillar of the chattering class, to do a profile of "Zelensky: president courage."
"Dans une rue éventrée de la ville fantôme de Pisky, il savait le nombre exact de Braves qui tenaient la ligne," BHL writes.
[ "On a gutted street in the ghost town of Pisky, he knew the exact number of Braves holding the line." ]
This is the kind of politician-hero that France is now holding up for a martyrdom virtually all hope will never come to pass. But it is a standard to which the dozen-plus candidates for president of France would doubtless aspire to in their dreams.
That said, back down to earth, a whole lot of these candidates are thrashing around in the mud where there are lodged some of their past beliefs or at least comments that they would love to reclaim. François Fillon, the former French prime minister, took to the pages of JDD to resign abruptly from the boards of two Russian companies. Fillon, standard bearer of the Les Républicains party in 2017, has been mired in financial scandals. But his ties to Russia immediately plunged this year's LR candidate, Valérie Pécresse, into frantic efforts to distance herself from Fillon. As a distraction, she turned with alacrity on three of her leading opponents across the political spectrum.
“There are candidates today in this election who have defended Russia’s position, who have aligned themselves with its positions, who are financed by Russian interests. There have been very strong statements in favor of Mr. [Vladimir] Poutine from a Jean-Luc Mélenchon, an Eric Zemmour, a Marine Le Pen,” Pécresse proclaimed. “I believe that today it really discredits them from governing France."
By Friday, Zemmour himself was pedaling backwards like crazy, trying desperately, as one reporter put it "after having minimized for months the threats launched by Moscow that the Ukraine issue was nothing more than 'propaganda' from the 'American (intelligence) services.'" As Zemmour now tried to proclaim at a thoroughly embarrassing rally in Chambéry "evidently, the event [Russia's invasion of Ukraine] is grave, and war in Europe is not something anodyne," then retracting it all again by explaining "we're in a presidential campaign….There's war in Europe, but there's not war in Europe." Whatever he was trying to say hardly helped clarify a thoroughly embarrassing position.
At the same time, Le Pen was telling a national audience on the RTL radio network a week ago that sanctions were hardly the solution, and Macron was playing a "self-serving role" throughout this crisis. Of course, two days later when appalling images of civilian death and destruction began playing into every French home, Le Pen was pedaling back herself as fast as she could, pleading for "immediate cessation of Russian military operations in Ukraine."
None of this will keep them from appearing on the ballot in April, though it will hardly help their poll numbers. But a number of candidates, as of Friday's accounting, still don't have the right to appear on the ballot. This includes Le Pen and Zemmour who still have not reached the level of 500 signatures of mayors across France ('godfathers' or parrains) that are a pre-requisite. Eight candidateshave reached that level including several whose single-digit polling numbers suggest they don't stand a chance of reaching the number two spot that would guarantee them a slot in the second round of balloting. That's when the top two face off. Right now, that includes front-runner President Emmanuel Macron, seeking his second and last five-year mandate. And one other.
Everyone has until Friday March 4 to reach the 500 signature mark. Le Pen and Zemmour are close, but several candidates are not, especially a darling of the French left, Christiane Taubira, a former justice minister under the last Socialist president François Holland.
By that same date, on Friday, every candidate seeking the presidency will have had to declare him or herself formally. About the only candidate who has not is Emmanuel Macron himself. Of course, he's been somewhat occupied. While his peace initiative with Putin failed to restrain the martial urges of the Russian leader, Macron has since emerged as a unifying force for Europe and helped lead the charge into ever stricter sanctions on Putin and his regime.
Just a week ago, Le Monde was warning that Macron "tries to manage the diplomatic affront inflicted by Vladimir Putin. The disappointment suffered by the head of state on the Russian-Ukrainian front opens the door to attacks from his political opponents and affects his entry into the campaign."
Since then, however, few could fault him for his efforts to bolster the cause of democracy, while quite successful holding Europe together during the worst military crisis since World War II. Europe today is as thoroughly united in thoughts as deeds as at any moment since the creation of the European Union.
Two days after that Le Monde headline, Pécresse found herself in the cross-hairs, as she was forced to affirm that the embarrassing Fillon "is not working on the campaign." Indeed.
Eventually, Macron, still occupying the high ground, decided he had to go before the French people for a "solemn allocution" on what he proclaimed as "a turning point in the history of Europe and our country." He continued:
"They will have lasting, profound consequences on our lives. They will have consequences on the geopolitics of our continent, and we will know together (how) to respond. I want to tell you my determination to protect you, relentlessly. Protect our compatriots exposed in Ukraine, protect all French people and take the necessary decisions regarding the direct and indirect consequences of this crisis."
Talk about sounding presidential? And still not even a declared candidate. Yet, he pledged to "get back to you within the coming hours to keep you informed of the evolution of the situation and the decisions that I will have to take."
Here's Macron, pledging to come back again and again, taking over every national channel whenever issues might demand. All this must have set the hair on fire of every other candidate, most of whom could have set themselves on fire in the Tuileries and still found it difficult to shoehorn their way onto the evening news.
Still, behind the scenes things were whirring along quietly but surely in the growing ranks of the Macron apparat. One hybrid meeting in mid-week with as many as 200 participants in person or online, brought together the sitting Prime Minister Jean Caste, National Assembly president Richard Ferand, the former prime minister Edouard Phililppe, plus any number of leaders of political movements present and past who’ve now lined up behind Macron and were now preparing for his formal entry onto the battlefield. As one of those present put it:
"Emmanuel Macron veut que sa déclaration soit originale, statutaire, que cela marque l’histoire. Cela devrait avoir lieu la semaine prochaine," adding that “la piste serait enfin dégagée pour une declaration."
[ "Emmanuel Macron wants his statement to be original, statutory, to mark history. This should take place next week," adding that "the way will finally be clear for a declaration." ]
A declaration that will open the flood gates. By next week, the battle will certainly be joined.
Vive la France!