Through the French presidential elections in April and the parliamentary elections in June, I'll be posting here the latest updates, my ruminations, and a sense of just where we are and where we might be going in this landmark series of votes—landmark for the French, for Europe and for the entire western alliance, especially the United States. Follow along with me….stay tuned! And of course, be sure to read the background in my latest book, A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen.
This is what we’ll be talking about today—the latest Le Monde/IPSOS poll that suggsts just a whole range of possibilities. And as of this writing (Sunday morning), President Emmanuel Macron, the presumed favorite and at this point the clear front-runner still has not formally declared his candidacy.
What’s not noted here is what has happened in the past month. Since the December poll, Macron has widened his lead—edging up 1% while center-right Valérie Pécresse has fallen 1.5%. But now, while far-right perennial candidate Marine Le Pen and her far-right challenger Eric Zemmour were tied at 14.5% a month ago, Zemmour has pared 1.5% and Le Pen has jumped 1.5%. So where does that leave us?
Is a trend perhaps beginning to emerge just 12 weeks and a few days before voters actually go to the polls in the first of what will clearly be two rounds (no candidate even approaching the 50% level that would obviate the need for a second round)? Well, right now it seems as though two women are clearly fighting it out for the chance to go up against Macron in Round Two. Center-right (Pécresse) and far-right (Le Pen). We thought initially that Le Pen and Zemmour would each be scrabbling for the same far-right collection of voters, canceling the other and leaving Pécresse as the clear number two. But not so fast. That whole dynamic seems perhaps to be shifting under our very feet. Now, from my vantage point, it’s by no means clear just who Pécresse is targeting. Or for that matter, who Le Pen is preparing to take on.
On the left, as we suggested last week, the arrival of Christiane Taubira, former Minister of Justice under the last Socialist President François Hollande, has only further fragmented its already thinning ranks. To arrive at her meager 5%, she seems to have snagged 1% from the Socialist Party's official candidate, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, leaving Hidalgo with 3.5%; 1.5% evaporated fronm the Green Party's Yannick Jadot, now at 7%; a sliver of 0.5% each has been sliced from the darling of the French left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, now the leader of the leftists at 8% and the Communist Party candidate Fabien Roussel. The final 1.5% could well have been supplied by Hollande's former economy minister, Arnaud Montebourg who suddenly withdrew from the race at about the same time Taubira was entering, though he declined to endorse any other candidate.
The big question, as always, is just where does this all leave Macron? Well right in the middle of things in a contest he still hasn't entered. Though from time to time he does still get drawn in. Or as Le Monde put it so succinctly, "The French presidential campaign invited itself to the French parliament." Which is where Macron betook himself on January 19 for his major kick-off speech as Europe's leader—to begin France's six-month as rotating leader of Europe. He used his inaugural speech to the nations of Europe and their representatives to lay out his vision of the continent and his priorities during these six months: "breathe new life" into European democracy and its values including environmental protection (making Europe climate neutrality by 2050) and abortion rights. There was the quest for a "decent" minimum wage. Much of this platform is far from uniform across Europe. He also urged Europe to reinforce its borders and move toward a European defense force.
At which point, the floor was opened to any number of Macron-deniers—all members of the European parliament. "We need more than words, we need action," declaimed Germany's Manfred Weber, leader of the European People's Party, a Christian Democratic party that is the dominant force in the EU parliament. Which gave free rein to a number of Macron's challengers for the French presidency—each a member of the Euro parliament—to vent, at least for the five minutes each was allotted. The Green's Jadot labeled Macron, bitterly, as "the president of climate inaction," guilty of concluding a "climaticide alliance with Poland and Hungary," demanding that he "stop lending an ear to smoky and nauseating theories" of those still clinging to gas and nuclear as the principal engines of European industry and commerce.
Then it was the turn of what Le Monde dubbs "the Marinistes" or supporters of Marine Le Pen—Jordan Bardella accusing Macron of seeking to "erase the nations of Europe," leaving the Old Continent to become "Washington's backyard," the "doormat of [Turkish President Recip] Erdogan," the "prey of Beijing," and "Africa's hotel."
"How can you claim you’ll bring Europe together when you have been until the end the one widening divisions in France?" Bardella concluded. “For France and for Europe, it is essential that your term remains a single term." Which seemed striking—as though Bardella hadn't been paying very close attention since Macron had just urged that Europe "conduct [its] own dialogue" with Russia rather than simply ride along on America's coat tails—a sharp divergence from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's plea for "unity."
Manon Aubry, a far-left supporter of Melenchon and former Oxfam spokesperson, then leapt to her feet to denounce Macron's "scheming" and his "contempt" for "our social rights," accusing him of "repressing demonstrations and refusing to address the climate emergency," concluding "the French presidency (of the EU) should not be an electoral steppingstone."
Throughout, Macron sat stoically, refusing to take any part in the partisan debate that one lawmaker observed risked "turning the European parliament into a version of the [French] National Assembly." Still, Macron had the last word, turning to recollections of his youth at the very birth of a united Europe:
"I then experienced, like many of you here, the great European doubt….Our generations today have to rebuild our Europe to meet its promises of democracy, progress and peace."
This kind of debate plays directly into Macron's hands at virtually every level—demonstrating to the French electorate that he may very well be the last rational man (or woman) standing as he seeks re-election to a second, final five-year term.
This was only reinforced on any number of occasions over the past week as the French parliament finally ratified a somewhat amended vaccination pass. And the feeling of "après moi, le déluge" was reinforced no more so than when Zemmour, forever the firebrand, was fined 10,000 euros for telling the right-wing CNEWS network that migrants "have nothing to do here, they are thieves, they are murderers, they are rapists, that's all they are, they should be sent back, and they should not even come." After he was fined, he only compounded the problem by denouncing a court that "tightens the nose on freedom of expression and on democratic debate a little more each day." Then, on Friday, he was back before the courts again for claiming that pro-Nazi Vichy leader Philippe Petain had "saved" French Jews rather than standing by as more than 70,000 were sent to their death in Nazi concentration camps. In all, Zemmour is proving to be a political gift that keeps on giving as Macron prepares to launch his campaign.
Vive la France.