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Walter Bruno's avatar

Good write-up on Canada, and permit me to add a few words. And one quibble: Justin Trudeau wasn't a 'disgraced' leader, he was a tired brand name, with a failed marriage, a morale problem, and his father's penchant for hanging onto power. He had a few other flaws, but was never 'disgraced'.

His loss of appeal though, lead to a political vacuum, not a 'surge' in support for Conservatives. Huge numbers of Canadian Liberals indicated to pollsters they would 'vote conservative' while holding their noses, mostly, to get rid of a tired party leader. In other words, there was never any 'dramatic swing' to and from Poilievre, there was a return to normal among liberals, with Carney. Then, this was increased by the idiotic behavior of Donald J Trump, who even helped the Liberal Party surge in Quebec, where they hate Trump passionately.

As I put, in a short note submitted to Toronto Star today (but I think I'm on their blacklist, so it won't appear): "The suggestion that the Liberal government only squeaked into power [touted by initial press coverage] is a tad exaggerated. The Liberals face only 2 parties bent on overthrowing the elected government: the Conservatives and the Bloc québécois. Let's be honest -- both are parties founded in [regional] separatist movements, not for a united Confederation. However, big however, their combined strength is 4 seats shy of 'bringing down' the liberals in Parliament. Secondly, no NDPer in the House is going to allow that to happen. Which means that Mark Carney needs only to get the NDP cohort into [strategic alliance based on inherent goals and values] and they can sign a 'confidence' agreement, guaranteeing never to support a vote of non-confidence.

Also, the NDP is now in a crisis of identity -- because the world of 2nd-International Social Democracy has changed since they were formed in the 1960s. The best advice I'd offer (they won't listen) is to let the 7 NDPers cross the floor, and join the Liberal Party as a progressive caucus. Just like the left of the US Democrats. That would even get them 'official party' status, which they now have lost. Inside that framework, they could still communicate their own agenda, respecting the need to keep Trump-friendly, and separatist-friendly Canadian Cons out of power in Ottawa.

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Julio George Papas's avatar

as always detailed text, paragraph to paragraph. thank you very much mr david, informational and sharp

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