Elections 2024: Eastern Germany + Unleashed Conversation-for-all

The end of a road or just a fork….hope and fear in Germany and across Europe….then a bigtime freebie from Andelman Unleashed ... finally, Venezuela spirals downward

Continuing our pledge at Andelman Unleashed to report and comment on every national election everywhere in the world, this week we have the German states ….. followed by a onetime only offer for our Unleashed SubScribers (paid or unpaid)!

Chalk up a win for the right….the far-right

The forces of Europe's far right scored perhaps their most stunning and important victory, some are suggesting since the end of the Nazi era in Europe more than three quarters of a century ago. The victory of the far-right German party, Alternative für Deutschland [Alternative for Germany], was undeniable on Sunday in two key states of what was once known as East Germany and still are home to key industrial and trading centers of Leipzig and Dresden.

The AfD leader, Björn Höcke, has already twice been convicted for knowingly using a Nazi slogan at a political event. But his $18,000 fine has hardly put a crimp in his style, dented his overwhelming popularity nor that of the party he has led for more than a decade—emerging from its own hard-right Der Flügel faction.

There's still a bit of reluctance in many quarters to call a spade a spade. But not for The Times of London. There it is on the front page. That hated word. "Nazis."

In Italy, the lead of La Repubblica:

Germany, the neo-Nazi wave

In neighboring Poland, which has had its own share of shocks from German Naziism, the leading daily Wyborcza warned its readers:

After the elections in Germany, we need to prepare for political shocks

Its correspondent Bartosz T. Wieliński writing:

The success of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the state elections in Thuringia, where the party took first place, and in Saxony, where it was beaten by the Christian Democrats by only one percentage point, does not mean that power throughout Germany will soon pass to the far right…..

[But]  From our own backyard and our clashes with populists, we have learned that people usually react when it gets late. When the dikes start to leak.

Even within Germany, it was quite clear from the first exit polls Sunday evening that the dikes had already sprung a pretty bigtime set of leaks. Indeed, while no major German papers would touch the third rail of political rhetoric directly, the fingers began pointing pretty directly toward a suddenly deeply damaged Olaf Scholz, still ruling, if barely, as Chancellor in Berlin, and clearly out of touch with some good part of his country.

Even more troubling, as Tonia Mastrobuoni pointed out ominously in Italy's La Repubblica:

Alice Weidel, leader of AfD, said: 'Either Europe starts listening to us, or we will lead to Dexit.' Weidel claims that if the CDU makes a pact with the left and the new populist party of Sahra Wagenknecht, and not with the AfD, it will "disappear from the political scene". The AfD leader emphasises that her party is "neither radical nor extremist" and at the same time warns: Dexit - that is, Germany leaving the EU—is possible. "Germany does not need the European Union to survive. The EU needs Germany—and should behave accordingly. Only then will it not be necessary for Germany to become independent."

A front page commentary in the leading national daily, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Berthold Kohler, co-editor of the paper, suggested not only the scope of the problem but the profoundly troubling roots:

The voters in Saxony and Thuringia not only gave their politicians difficult tasks, but also passed a devastating verdict on the Scholz government and the coalition that supported it. It was controversial federal political issues that brought enormous support to the AfD: immigration, internal security, the energy transition, inflation, the relationship with Russia….

The Scholz government had ignored the cry of many voices for too long, which could be described as "It's the migration, stupid!" in reference to a well-known American dictum….

At the federal level, these demagogues and agitators will not achieve results as easily as in Saxony and Thuringia. Nevertheless, the election result must serve as a warning to all democrats about how lastingly political conditions can be shaken when many citizens believe that what a government decides and does is fundamentally wrong.

The scope of just what happened in those two former East German states, where three-quarters of all voters actually went to the polls, becomes strikingly clear just from a few graphics from Deutsche Welle (DW):

The immediate political reality, though, is that neither AfD nor any other party has enough for a clear majority of seats….

Still, the trends are certainly troubling … only one party clearly on the rise—the AfD.

In Saxony, a little better … as former Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right CDU managed to eke out a slim lead…but AfD is breathing down its neck.

And again, AfD is the only one rising in popularity …

So, what's next? Perhaps that could be most clearly stated by the one newspaper, so close yet still so far—the crowning glory of the Schweizerdeutsch community just over the German frontier in Switzerland—Neue Zürcher Zeitung:

What's next for Andelman Unleashed?

What's next for us is an exciting experiment. For the first (and perhaps only) time, we are opening up our Friday Zoom conversations to all our subscribers (with priority of course to our paid).

First come / First served, up to what will probably be our capacity of 300 or so. To get your link, just email us at:  daandelman@substack.com

AND we even have a very special guest !!

Dennis Redmont, veteran Rome, Lisbon and Brazil bureau chief for the Associated Press has reported from over 80 countries, covered guerrilla warfare and dictatorships in Latin America, Middle East crises, traveling the world with three popes, Pulitzer Prize finalist for his Vatican coverage, eventually working as a Rome based executive for the AP for the Mediterranean area, handling news, photos, television and multimedia coverage and distribution for over 25 years. Fluent in six languages, he will join us from his home in Lisbon. Which is also a perfect perch to monitor the shape and trajectory of global reaction to America’s own elections now heading into the home stretch!

Elections 2024:  Venezuela

It’s not getting any more friendly in Caracas where South America's perhaps most determined autocrat seems to be digging in as the pressure ratchets up on him.

Mainstream media have already zeroed in on Nicolas Maduro's efforts to remain in power, turning to the ultimate, arresting the clear winner of the recent presidential election. More will certainly be in store …

And just for the record, here's how Venezuela's leading (and state-controlled) media are playing it:

And then there’s Ukraine…

The big question: who might Volodymyr Zelensky be bringing with him next week to New York for the annual United Nations General Assembly meeting….with the sudden resignation of the nation’s veteran foreign minister, as the Kyiv Independent reported:

The resignation of Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and a major government reshuffle was "expected long ago" ahead of a difficult few months for Ukraine, a senior lawmaker told the Kyiv Independent on Sept. 4.

"It is a big reshuffle. It was expected rather long ago," said Oleksandr Merezhko, Ukrainian MP and chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee. "Ahead of us are difficult times, a difficult autumn and winter. Perhaps this reshuffle is somehow related to the new period of challenges for Ukraine….”

The statement followed a number of other high-profile ministers submitting their letters of resignation the previous day — Strategic Industries Minister Alexander Kamyshin, Justice Minister Denys Maliuska, Ecology Minister Ruslan Strilets, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna, and Deputy Prime Minister and Reintegration Minister Iryna Vereshchuk.

Clearly Zelensky is planning the biggest reshuffle of his government since the Russian invasion.

And remember, a paid sub gets a ticket every week to our Friday zoom campfire of the minds….plus so much more!