Elections 2023…The coda: Congo, Serbia, Egypt…Slovakia, Netherlands & Thailand (redux)
Congo in crisis … Serbia looks backward … business as usual in Egypt … Slovakia and Netherlands, Putin’s new pals? … Thailand redux
Continuing our pledge at Andelman Unleashed to report and comment on every national election everywhere in the world, this week, multiple dramatic turns of events.
Congo’s crisis of conscience or confidence
The largest nation in sub-Saharan Africa, with a territory larger than the entirety of Western Europe, the Democratic Republic of Congo serves as the continent's center of gravity, indeed its fulcrum. But right now, it is decidedly— as all too often in the aftermath of past Congo elections—unbalanced.
A week after the end of the official, utterly chaotic and many, including a host of outside monitors, have charged dishonest election, there is still no officially certified winner. Incumbent president Felix Tshisekedi is leading his 18 challengers with 80% of the 2.8 million votes already tabulated according to official government records.
The leading opposition candidates, however, have all challenged the honesty of the vote and the accuracy of its tabulation, the opposition website Le Congo Libera commenting on how the government-controlled election authority “transforms the bitter defeat of Félix Tshisekedi into a Soviet victory,” a reference to how Vladimir Putin conducts elections in Russia. Five of the leading opposition candidates also called for a mass demonstration in the capital, Kinshasa, which he government promptly and hardly unexpectedly, banned. Police ultimately broke up the gathering that turned violent, leaving a number wounded.
All this is only likely to provoke yet more violence as the president seeks to hold on for another term of office with none of the problems resolved during his first term. As Andres Schipani reported for London’s Financial Times from Matadi:
When Tshisekedi took office in 2019, it was the first peaceful transition of power since independence from Belgium in 1960. He took over from Joseph Kabila, who had ruled for 18 years pockmarked by conflict and alleged corruption.
Like Kabila, he was a political scion. His father Étienne served as prime minister under the kleptocratic ruler Mobutu Sese Seko, when the country was called Zaire, before becoming a leading opposition figure.
In the younger Tshisekedi’s first year in office, the economy was badly hit by a slump in commodity prices and the impact of a damaging outbreak of Ebola. The Covid-19 pandemic only worsened the outlook. But Tshisekedi set about repairing relations with the IMF, which had broken ties with Kinshasa in 2012, and negotiated a $1.5bn programme from the Washington-based lender in July 2021. He set out a $1.6bn development plan to build roads, schools and hospitals that earned him the moniker Fatshi Béton (concrete).
All this development has scarcely filtered down to the average Congolese. The World Bank projects that extreme poverty (less than $2.15 per day) will drop less than 5% this year, still stuck at more than 60% of the population. The DRC remains the third poorest nation in Africa (after Burundi and the Central African Republic).
Why should the west—indeed the world—care about the DRC? For openers, it happens to sit on the world’s largest supplies of untapped minerals, particularly cobalt, vital to the green transition, batteries in particular and copper with Congo’s production about to vault past Peru’s as the world’s largest. All these reserves have been valued at $24 trillion. Yet the average Congolese has seen little or nothing of this vast wealth. Moreover, unchecked violence by gangs in the east has displaced or killed more than 1 million people in the past two years—a horror that Tshisekedi has pledged but failed to reverse.
The election commission has said it will offer a final count in the elections by the end of this year. But the results seem hardly in doubt.
Serbia…back to the future
At first it looked, as Al Jazeera reported, as though President Aleksandr Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party had won a tsunami of a victory:
The victory was total, overwhelming, sweeping, crushing. His ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) had on its own secured a majority in the National Assembly with twice as many votes and seats as their closest opponent. It also swept the regional and municipal elections, winning councils in 165 cities and towns, including the capital, Belgrade. All other parties together claimed just nine cities and towns.
Vucic had won his second five-year term in 2022 by thrashing his closest competitor by 41 percentage points. As Sunday’s landslide vote in this snap election was confirmed, the 53-year-old uncontested ruler of Serbia joined his ecstatic ministers, parliamentarians and supporters at party headquarters to claim the ultimate political achievement. Until it wasn't.
Following the tsunami of victory came a tsunami of condemnations—particularly of how it was conducted. Now there's talk of some do-overs. As the BBC reported from Belgrade:
The final results of the parliamentary elections will be announced when voting is repeated at around 28 polling stations across Serbia, it was announced after the session of the Republic Election Commission (REC).
Voting for the election of deputies is repeated in those places because the results could not be determined or because the votes were annulled.
Re-voting will take place on Saturday, December 30 from 7 am to 8 pm.
As Netherlands-based Euractiv reported:
A team of international observers slammed Serbian elections over a string of “irregularities”, including “vote buying” and “ballot box stuffing”, after the opposition accused the ruling party of committing voter fraud. The accusations aired by the monitors, which included representatives from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), came just hours after … Vučić said his party had secured a commanding victory during parliamentary and local elections.
Germany condemned the reported irregularities as “unacceptable” for a candidate to join the European Union. “Serbia has voted but the OSCE has reported abuse of public funds, intimidation of voters and cases of vote buying,” the foreign ministry said, referring to accusations by the OSCE. “That is unacceptable for a country with EU candidate status.”
The reality is that thousands of unregistered voters were reported to have been bused in from neighboring Bosnia to cast ballots illegally in Belgrade. Sadly, it was such actions, ratifying the reelection of the one man whose policies were also most calculated to keep the nation out of the European Union, that were also undertaken in a fashion only likely to cement the Serbia's exclusion.
Vucic and his little pal
The question is how badly Vucic really wants to join the EU. For years, he has done his best to cement close relations with Putin and Russia, while at the same time refusing to recognize the independence of neighboring Muslim-dominated Kosovo as separate from Serbia—a reality that at least 114 other countries have recognized including all of the EU except Slovakia, Romania, Cyprus, Greece, as well as Russia and China.
"We have many of our monasteries in Kosovo," one journalist from the Belgrade magazine Nin told me in a recent zoom conversation. "It is very much a part of our nation."
Back to the future
In my latest CNN column, I cast an eye at the elections that we will be chronicling here on Andelman Unleashed in 2024, a tsunami of a year in terms of elections and their potential impact on every continent.
Brace yourself. The elections of 2024 could shock the world.
Egypt … business as usual
His arrival in power in 2014 was hardly democratic, Field Marshal Adel Fattah el-Sisi simply going on Egyptian television to announce that his predecessor, the first freely-elected Egyptian leader, Mohammed Morsi, had "failed to meet the demands of the Egyptian people,” and was therefore deposed in yet another military coup.
So, it should hardly have come as a big surprise when Sisi swept this month's "elections" for a new six-year term with 89.6% of the vote over three other minor challengers, a fourth, the most viable, withdrawing in October after "officials and thugs" had targeted his supporters.
As Al Jazeera reported:
The vote…took place as Egypt dealt with various crises, including the Israel-Hamas war in neighbouring Gaza and the country’s worst-ever economic crisis. [Egypt’s currency has lost half its value since March 2022, while inflation reached an all-time high of 39.7% in August.] Sisi was running against three other candidates, none of whom were high profile.
Despite Egypt’s afflictions, a decade-long crackdown on dissent has eliminated any serious opposition to Sisi, the fifth president to emerge from within the ranks of the military since 1952.
The outcome of the election and Sisi's confirmation for six more unimpeded years appears only to have emboldened him in efforts to resolve the war in neighboring Gaza, at least some of the fallout threatening to spread over to neighboring, Egyptian-controlled Sinai. As the Israeli daily Haaretz reported:
Egypt has proposed a three-phase cease-fire deal to the Hamas delegation that visited Cairo, the Ramallah-based Asharq channel reported:
The cease-fire would begin with a two-week truce to include the release of 40 Israeli hostages held by Hamas, mainly women, children and adults who are elderly or sick, in exchange for 120 Palestinian prisoners and substantial humanitarian aid, including fuel.
In the second phase, a new technocratic government will oversee Gaza's rehabilitation and prepare it for elections.
The third phase will involve talks with Israel for a comprehensive cease-fire to include the release of all Israeli hostages and Israel's complete withdrawal from Gaza.
A Palestinian Islamic Jihad delegation arrived in Cairo for talks with Egyptian security officials
At the same time, Sisi has let it be known that he won't take any Gazans who might be forced out by Israel. Repeated efforts by the Biden administration have failed to move him off this position.
Beirut-based channel Al Mayadeen reported:
The chairperson of the Egyptian State Information Service announced that Cairo categorically rejects the Israeli policy of forced displacement of the people of Gaza whether within the Strip or across the border into Egypt’s Sinai.
The Egyptian constitution allows Sisi only this one final term at the end of which he will be 76. Still, it was Sisi and the military that drafted this constitution in the first place when he seized power in 2014.
Slovakia also leans toward Putin
In Slovakia the view is beginning to come into a hard, and not terribly appealing focus. Three months ago, Andelman Unleashed chronicled the unexpected win as prime minister by populist Robert Fico, who pledged to end all arms shipments to Ukraine, even those transiting through Slovakia. Now, as feared in much of Europe, with a plurality of barely 23% of the vote, the victor has begun seeking coalition partners, turning to the hard-right. Writing for Unleashed from Bratislava, Marco Németh picks up the tale of the denouement:
In Slovakia's recent September elections, the populist SMER party, led by ex-Prime Minister Robert Fico won, positioning Fico for a return as Prime Minister. A key issue in the political discourse is his proposed reform, particularly the dissolution of the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office, which has raised concerns domestically and from the European Commission for potentially undermining Slovakia's rule of law.
This reform involves transferring high-profile cases, especially those linked to former SMER associates, to regional prosecutors. Such a move could weaken judicial independence and provoke fears of political meddling in critical legal matters. Thousands protested in Bratislava, and all around the country, against these changes, viewing them as a threat to democratic institutions.
The prosecutors from the dissolved office would be reassigned to the General Prosecutor's Office, under Maroš Žilinka's authority. This raises the possibility of him reorganizing the prosecutor's team, further complicating the situation. Moreover, if the Special Court is abolished, ongoing cases would be transferred to other courts, necessitating a restart of proceedings and witness summons.
Regarding the concerning situation in Slovakia last week, the European Parliament held a plenary discussion. According to my information, in January, the EP is also expected to adopt a warning resolution.
But there's more … much more. As The New Voice of Ukraine reported:
Fico, known for his pro-Russian stance, said he would veto Ukraine's admission into NATO. In an interview with Slovak outlet InfoVojna on Dec. 19, Fico stated he would use his veto to block Ukraine's NATO entry as long as he has "the ability to influence the Slovak political scene."
"It's not surprising that the party that holds the majority in the Slovak government would disagree with Ukraine's membership in NATO, as it would be the beginning of World War III," he said.
Fico and friend
Earlier, The New Voice had also reported:
Fico has blocked military aid to Ukraine worth EUR 40.3 million, Slovak daily newspaper Dennik N reported. The proposal for this new aid package was originally prepared by the former leadership of the Slovak Ministry of Defense. It included:
Four million rounds of 7.62 mm ammunition;
5,172 rounds of large-caliber ammunition for 125 mm guns;
140 missiles for the Kub air defense system;
Eight mortars;
1,200 mines.
Bratislava has previously provided 13 packages of military assistance to Kyiv worth EUR 671 million. Notably, Slovakia became the first NATO country to supply Ukraine with MiG-29 fighter jets.
As I wrote in my CNN column, Fico based much of his campaign on ending all military support to Ukraine and promoting an early ceasefire alongside peace talks with Russia—which would be most welcome by Putin’s efforts to rebuild his arsenal before resuming his campaign.
One of seven frontline states bordering Ukraine, Slovakia has sent considerable quantities of weapons from its own stockpiles, including its own air defense system from the capital, Bratislava. It also has a prodigious ammunition manufacturing industry that has been in the service of Ukraine from the start of the Russian invasion. Just last April, the government pledged to expand the critical artillery ammunition production five-fold to meet Ukraine’s requirements in the conflict.
More broadly, Fico himself is a close ally of other Putin-friendly European leaders, most notably Viktor Orban, prime minister of neighboring Hungary, who was one of the first to tweet his congratulations to Fico late Saturday. “Guess who’s back! Congratulations to Robert Fico on his undisputable victory at the Slovak parliamentary elections. Always good to work together with a patriot. Looking forward to it,” Orban wrote.
Fico, for his part, has parroted many of Putin’s core beliefs since the start of the Russian invasion. “The war in Ukraine didn’t start a year ago, it started in 2014, when Ukrainian Nazis and fascists started murdering Russian citizens in the Donbas and Luhansk,” Fico told a campaign rally.
Together, Fico and Orban—both leaders of nations which are members of the European Union and NATO—will likely form a blocklette of their own, but now without the added clout of a resurgent right wing in Poland. Still, there are powerful and rising rightwing forces elsewhere in Europe—especially Germany’s AfG party that must be reckoned with in any future electoral contest.
Netherlands…still waiting
A month ago, readers of Unleashed might have thought we had a winner in the Netherlands—voters opting for a sharp right-turn with more heartburn ahead for what’s left of the liberal mainstream in the European Union. But so far, there's still no government in Amsterdam…and none in sight.
As The Guardian's Jon Henley reports:
A month after Geert Wilders emerged as the shock winner of the Dutch election, closed-door talks between his Freedom party (PVV) and three others have begun–but with no certainty of agreement, still less on the shape of an eventual coalition.
The far-right PVV took nearly a quarter of the vote in the 22 November ballot, winning 37 seats in the 150-seat parliament. But with 15 other parties also winning seats, it needs at least two partners to form a coalition government that is sure of a majority.
Wilders, whose manifesto called for a “Nexit” referendum on leaving the EU, the rejection of all new asylum claims, and bans on mosques, the Qur’an and Islamic headscarves in public buildings, has pledged to moderate his most hardline policies.
But so far only one other party with a significant number of seats in parliament, the agrarian Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB) with seven seats, has said it is willing to enter a formal coalition with the veteran far-right provocateur….
Dutch coalition talks usually take months, and positions about parties’ willingness to work with each other can shift as time goes on.
In the interim, radio silence …. No news likely til early February.
Thailand…return of Pita
Thailand might have been on the cusp of a revolution this year. Now, that seems pretty unlikely. About the only unanswered question is whether the victors will find themselves despoiled. The Straits Times of Singapore visited this critical question for one of Asia's struggling democracies:
For a man who could be disqualified as an MP in a month, Mr Pita Limjaroenrat looks relaxed. The former leader of Thailand’s Move Forward Party (MFP) sees himself as a mere cog in the machinery turning the wheels of political change.
“Parties should die because people don’t vote for them” and not because of judicial systems, he said, but the reality in Thailand has been otherwise. He was speaking to The Straits Times on Dec 22, in an interview at his party’s Bangkok headquarters.
Mr Pita, 43, led the MFP to emerge as the biggest winner of the May 14 general election, clinching 151 out of 500 seats in the Lower House. But he could not muster enough votes in the 750-seat Parliament to secure his premiership, largely due to opposition from appointed senators.
What Pita really wants to do, it seems, is to move toward ending Thailand's absolute monarchy by modifying the sacrosanct law of lèse majesté. Even back in the 1970s when I was based in Bangkok as The New York Times Southeast Asian bureau chief, I knew not to utter a breath against the monarchy or any of its offspring. For Pita to try to mess with that is like grabbing the third rail of Thai politics. The Constitutional Court may well decide this week whether his efforts to loosen that statute amount to an effort to overthrow the monarchy. The court will decide Pita's own fate on January 24. As The Straits Times observed, "The man who came close." But to fail even closely in Thailand may not be very healthy at all.
We’ll be back in January with reportage and commentary on Bangladesh and Taiwan choosing their new leaders with enormous stakes for their regions and the world…the debut of the most fraught year in history for the future of democracy.
sadly .....
see Jeff Danziger's take .....
https://vimeo.com/898140650?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
2024 looks to be a nail biter. And all of it will affect us, of course. But most are not paying attention. They don't even recognize some of these names. It' all football and entertainment. We're lucky if they read the headlines. Low information voters are going to kill us all...